Michael's 22-Year Plan Path to Energy Independence

Read more reader reponses to DN Editor-in-Chief John Dodge's "GetEnergized about Energy" column in the August 11 issue as well as DesignNews' exhaustive hydrogenfuel cell vehicle and fueling infrastructure package.

One Citizen's thoughts on the presentcrisis in the United States 

Introduction:

There are a large number of major problems facing the United Statesat this time. They range from serious issues to major crisis. They covercultural issues, financial market crisis, escalatingtrade deficit, education system deterioration, political misdeed andcorruption, drug use epidemic, energy cost escalation, illegal immigration andmore.

This paper focuses on one major crisis and a vision for asolution to that crisis. It is this author's opinion that without a permanentsolution to this crisis all the other problems will be more difficult or even nearimpossible, to be solved, as the growing trade deficit and the national debtwill strip the economy. While this paper lists general steps to accomplish thisvision, it is in no way a complete program with all the details needed nor acomplete listing of all actions, costs and steps to be taken. The paper leavessome items and technologies to be solved. It is a rough vision and a call toaction.

The Unites States and the entireplanet are at a crisis point that has two principal interrelated components.  The two components are; first, the use ofburning carbon based fuels and second, the increasing US tradedeficit. Failure to provide lasting rectification to these problem areasultimately will result in irreversible damage to the economy of the United States of Americaand reportedly will increase the cycle of global warming of the entire planet.

The solution to this crisis is simple. Stop burning carbon-basedmaterials in massive amounts, such as for generation of electricity, fortransportation purposes and for manufacturing processes. The change fromburning carbon-based fuels to the use of   Carbonless Energy Production andTransportation (C.E.P.A.T.) is not simple, easy or cheap. It will solve the twocrisis components and create an entire shift in the culture and fortunes in thenation and the world. The result will be that the United States of America will no longerrequire foreign oil and it will no longer be a major source of air pollution orCO 2 emissions. The impact to the United States of American of no longerimporting foreign oil will result in a reduction of the trade deficit, areduction of the flow of monies to the countries or organizations that secretlysupply terrorist organizations.

This paper presents a vision of action and a plan that ismore aggressive than those proposed or accomplished heretofore by this nationor any other nation. The vision is not new but the implementation plan and itsschedule is new. The vision is so large in scale that it can only beaccomplished by an awakened government and leadership that are capable ofmarshalling the resources of the government, corporate entities, news media, andthe population at large.  This unifiedapproach would come from a belief and with an understanding that it is the ONLYlasting solution to the energy problem, for this great country.

The call to action can only be made by strong central leadershipin the same manner as;

·        Our Founding Father's dedication to forming anew union over 200 years ago

·        President Lincoln and his leadership that put anend to slavery and preserved the Union of the United States

·        The call by the Congress to expand the railroadsin the West and throughout the United States in the 19^th Century.

·        The leadership of President Franklin Rooseveltin the Depression calling for Government programs like the WPA, and CCC whichprovided infrastructure improvement such as the, railroad and automotivebridges, the hydro electrification and other projects that benefited thecountry while providing jobs for the men and women who needed them.

·        The leadership shown by President Roosevelt andthe Congress in the unification of the entire nation including the media andall people of the country to obtain victory on all fronts throughout the worldin World War II.

·        President Eisenhower's initiative that hadCongress authorizes the building of the Interstate highways.

·        President Kennedy in his calling for and the Congressionalbacking and funding to put a man on the moon in less than10 years.

All of those governments sponsored and mandated programsmoved the country ahead at critical times and points of crisis in the historyof the United States.

Those past mandated programs spawned entire new industries,technologies and products. When massive efforts are undertaken new technologiesand methodologies are required to achieve the goal of those efforts. Researchand development is required to find new solutions and methods to help solve theproblems. New discoveries which provide new products not related to the initialeffort are often made during these R&D programs. The increased investmentin research and development also increases the need for engineers, technicians,and scientists. This demand for these skilled people creates an increasedinterest on the part of young people to pursue scientific educations andcareers that provide the United States with the much needed skilledtechnical people, who are in short supply today.

Out great nation periodically requires these long term viewsand responsible leadership for the people to follow. Our citizens want to bepart of a brighter future, they want to be proud of their country, and theywant to help. In the past cases cited, the citizens were involved but the United Statesgovernment provided the program the leadership and made the laws, spent themoney, enabling the American people to do the work. The government did notstand back and ask the people to solve the problem themselves without the aidof the government, its leadership and it's funding, which seems to be the case,thus far, in this crisis. With the crisis facing the United States today it istime, actually long overdue time, for a motivated leader to step forward andaccept the challenge of solving this crisis with the implementation of theC.E.P.A.T. Initiative.

The time frame laid down for this Initiative is 22 years tocomplete all phases of the plan. The implementation in some areas may be fasterthan listed in the implementation schedule. The reduction in imported oil willbe felt within the first 10 years and by year 22 of the plan major changes willhave occurred, in the United States. There are major challenges ahead inorder to accomplishment of the C.E.P.A.T. Initiative to be completed onschedule. During the implementation of the Initiative, the burning ofcarbon-based fuels will diminish until at the end of the 22 year period theamount of carbon-based materials burned will be a fraction of the amount burnedtoday. The plan recently announced by T. Boone Pickens of conversion fromgasoline to natural gas for automotive and light duty trucks can be used as afaster way to transition from gasoline and imported oil. However, at some pointin the 22 year period, the use of natural gas for automobiles and trucks wouldbe eliminated and replaced by hydrogen and or electricity.

This vision of a C.E.P.A.T. does not change in any way themassive amount of oil, and coal and natural gas needed or used in making otherproducts and processes. Plastics, tires, metallic alloys, all require oil,natural gas and coal. Natural gas will still be allowed as a fuel for; existinghomes that use natural gas for heating and/or cooking, natural gas and coal forsome manufacturing processes, and aircraft. It should be noted that recently aBoeing research team has flown a demonstration flight with a Diamond Dimona twoseat aircraft using a hydrogen fuel cell (Source Aerospace engineering &manufacturing magazine June 2008 issue). This demonstrates that new solutionsto the use of carbon-based fuels are possible in all areas. Commercial shipswill be allowed to burn carbon fuels for 18 years. Eventually alternate fuelsystems will replace these exceptions.

It is acknowledged that there are programs andorganizations, today in the United States and elsewhere on the planet that are exploringand implementing replacement of carbon based fuels with solar, wind, nuclear, hydrogen,hydro, geothermal, tidal, and other methods. The vision includes these sources,organizations and technologies as part of the methodology for the completion ofthis inactive. Examples of these efforts are; Former Vice President Al Gore'spast and present calls for the transition from carbon based fuels to alternateenergy sources, the state of California'simplementation of a "Hydrogen Highway", thanks to the efforts of Governor ArnoldSchartweinager and the state legislature. Examples of these efforts are: thenew Wind Farm announced and funded by T. Boone Pickens in Texas and his callfor wind power to generate electricity, the U.S. Green Building Council  program (www.usgbc.org)in use by several corporations to have buildings "Go Green", the SolarElectrical Power Association (www.solarelectricpower.org)organization for solar energy implementation, the deregulation of electricalgeneration which has allowed individual homes and buildings to use or supplyelectrical power to the grid, and individual prominent persons such as Jay Lenoof the Tonight Show who has equipped his automotive collection garage withsolar power. Most universities such as MIT, Cal Tech, and University of Missouriat Rolla have been and continue to work on alternate fuel vehicles.

This vision includes and encourages individuals to implementcarbonless energy production in their homes and small businesses. In an effortto encourage individuals to implement solar and wind electrical generation taxincentives greater than those tax credits offered today will be offered. Theseincentives would take effect starting in the first year of the program.

The MASSIVE effort required and its implementation will makeC.E.P.A.T. significant in the history of man.  No program has ever been of such importancefor the health and wealth of the nation and its people as well as the planetitself, nor so long lasting.  No programhas had such a large cost. The program will require a cut back in other governmentexpenditure areas. The difficult job of determining these areas is what we pay theelected officials to do. Taxes will have to be increased but that should bedone as temporary taxes with date limits set. The cost of all these projects inthis C.E.P.A.T. Initiative will be in the trillions of dollars over the 22years of the total program. The federal government must fund a large part ofthe effort, and organize, monitor and report on the progress toward the projectgoals. The benefits of C.E.A.T.P. will be greater than its cost and the moniesreturned and saved will be multi-fold of the cost which will benefit ourgrandchildren. The C.E.P.A.T. Imitative will make the United States of Americaonce again a leader for other nations to emulate.

We have, for too long, and continue to be, divided onsolutions to problems like these based on political ideologies and personalinterest vs. the good of our future. This division must be put aside for thecommon good. Both political party members must put aside party politics. The environmentalistmust join with the industrialist to come to agreement on how to best achievesolutions. Coming together requires aquisance on one or more points by EACH sidein these common agreements. For example: environmentalist must allow newnuclear Breeder reactors to be built and engineers must add new improved safeguards for the waste disposal.

The News Media also plays a major part in this Initiative.It is time for the News Media to realize that the real story is: "theachievement of these goals and report on the progress and problems in theachievement of the goals" not the use of their position of persuasive power toput their own editorial "spin" on the program for their own glorification orpolitical views.

At 2007 our trade deficit was over $ 857 billion, of that1/3 is due to imported oil (Source fxstreet.com). The trade deficit is beingimpacted negatively because of many factors, including purchase of goods andservices from cheaper sources world wide, which includes the much discussedoutsourcing of jobs, importing oil and natural gas at an increasing rate andthe increased purchasing of foods from foreign sources which we once exported.

One of our offsetting exports has been military and commercialaircraft. We will in the future export less military and commercial aircraft asthe Chinese, Russian, and South American commercial and military aircraftindustries are developing aircraft for their domestic and export sales.American companies and the USgovernment are and have been buying foreign aircraft at an increasing rate.This trend on our part along with the loss of export sales to those verycountries and others because of the increased competition will further increaseour trade deficit. (Source Aviation Week)

The long term effects of the C.E.P.A.T. Initiative will be:

It should be noted that this paper does not list the use of foodbio-fuels as a source of fuel and that is because using food sources as a fuelin self defeating on the economy, while it may be profitable to someindividuals or corporations it is not a long term solution to the presentcrisis. Additionally, there are reports beginning that point to a possiblenegative effect on present car engines due to the use of bio-fuels.  

Prior Warnings and Reactions:

In 1974 the United States was faced with an oil shortage whichcaused gasoline lines at gas pumps around the country. The automobile companiesmade special options available with more gas reserves in the gas tanks. Oneexample was the Ford Mercury Grand Marque of 1975 had an extra reserve 8 gallongas tank in the trunk, as a factory option. The national speed limit wasreduced to 55 miles per hour in most states on Interstate highways. However, asgasoline became available and dropped in price, the population pressured, withthe help of oil lobbyist to raise the speed limits again and promise cars withslightly better gas mileage.

There had been attempts to avoid the dependence on oil andcoal by introducing more fuel efficient cars with a continuing trend formandated improvements.  Theseimprovements did not eliminate the problem. The belief was we should continue to rely on oil for automotive andtruck and trains and planes based not on what was a better idea for the futureof the country but on what was cheapest at the time, and to some extent,ignorance of the cause and effect relationship, as it would relate to the alarger problem in the future. It is obvious that the oil industry andautomakers through out this period had the interest of their stock holders inmind, as they should, to resist any change to the status quo. Even so, theyalso had a responsibility to look into the future to see that a larger problemwould be possible and to have a larger budget to do R&D work on alternateenergy sources than they had. Our Congress too has had a part in our presentposition. The laws that they have made or did not present and pass have helpedto put this nation in the crisis of today. They are ultimately responsible overthe past 30+ years for not taking the right steps to prevent this problem.

In the 1960s it was envisioned that Nuclear power generationcould replace most of the polluting coal fired power generation plants, theenvironmentalists blocked these plans, in the United States and shut down entirecorporations nuclear programs such as that of Westinghouse Corporation. TheUnited States Nuclear power plants account for 20% of the electrical powergenerated in this country with hydroelectric, solar farms and wind power accountingfor 8% of the power generation. It is time to increase those percentages in nuclear,solar and wind generation and use of electricity, and hydrogen as fuels topower our transportation.

The Unites States was not the only nation to get the warningconcerning the burning of carbon fuels; however each country reacted indifferent manners. Francewas faced with the realization that the 1970's oil shock that they were almostcompletely dependent on foreign carbon based material (oil, gas and coal) asthey had no oil or gas and a dwindling supply of natural coal. The Frenchgovernment set in motion plans to build nuclear power plants, and informed thepeople of Franceof the need for this new energy source. Today they have 58 nuclear plantssupplying over 76% of their electrical energy needs. (Source www.pbs.org - Frontline) When environmentalistprotested in Franceover the use of nuclear power plants the French government went to extrememeasures to inform the population of the need for the conversion and the longterm benefits to the people and the nation. Because of these actions they wonmost of the population over to the need for alternate energy generation. The reductionof their dependency on foreign oil and gas while holding their green houseemission to a minimum has been a result of this effort.

Franceand other European countries have long used smaller cars which burn less gas,than the large American cars.  Europeancountries and Asian countries lead the world in electrical train transportationincluding high speed railroads as mentioned above. If France produces electricity using nuclear energyand runs their trains on electricity, they have come close to what this paperis advocating for the United States, only our program would be of a muchlarger scale.

During these years evidence started to surface in thescientific community indicating that global warming was being caused by the useof burning carbon based fuels.  Thisincrease in levels of pollution and CO2 in the air potentially was causing aneventual global warming which could have a massive impact on the planet. Basedon this mounting evidence our Congress debated the issue, as to its validity,rather than to draw up plans to deal with the problem and pass legislation tomake it a non-issue. While there is still some controversy, on this cause andeffect relationship, one would ask "why risk the chance, that we were in factcausing the problem when in-fact there are other technologies available toavoid the problem?"

None of these warning signs were headed, and no lasting actionswere taken which resulted in long term elimination of the problem. Why wasnothing done? One obvious reason was because it was not profitable to take anymeaningful action. The cost of the investment in alternate energy sources wasconsidered too great, while the existing capital investment in existingtechnologies and methodologies in many cases was already amortized. In addition,discussions and arguments raged on, concerning the amount of oil, gas and coalavailable for man's use in the future. This line of discussion and debateclouded the real issue of not using the carbon-based materials as fuels, and drewthe attention away from the critical question at hand, which is "Why not usealternate sources of energy?" These discussions rage on today still obstructingthe benefits of becoming free from the negative global and financial effects ofburning carbon products to provide energy and transportation.

Implementation

The implementation of the C.E.P.A.T. Initiative is laid outon a time line starting on the day of the President of the United States signsinto law the legislation the bill and the appointment of the agencies to handlethe program. We have sufficient agencies in the government such that we mayjust add new responsibilities to existing agencies with one of the agencies tobe in charge of the entire program.

This is an Example of a list of achievements by end of thelisted year of the program.

Year 1.0

  *Completionof Government staffing and appointments of offices and

                establishmentof duties.

 * Passing of legislation and signing of allbills establishing authorities and

Laws for the programs, includingnew tax incentives for individual home owners, apartments and offices givingtax write off credit of 2.5 times the total cost after installation of any PVor Thermal Solar installation, or wind power electrical generation. The creditshall be 1 times the cost of the installation for each year of the first two yearsand .5 times on the third year.

Year 1.6

* Federal government agency torelease bids for construction for the programs.

* Federallegislation passed for education / job training for present welfare recipientsleading to jobs in the C.E.P.A.P initiative projects.

Year 2.5

 * Federal government agency to award contractfor start of construction for the

    programs.

* Beginconstruction of the first 4 Hydrogen Highways on interstate highways,

     I95, I80, I65 and I5. 

Year 3.0

* Beginconstruction of Electrical Railroads within 100 mile radius of all cities witha population of more than 2 million residents.

            * Beginconstruction of East Coast and West Coast North South high speed

               Railroadlines from Boston to Miamiand Seattle to San Diego.

      * Begin Construction of New electricaltransmission lines from proposed solar

               and wind farms in the Midwest and Southwest US

     * Begin Construction of new Initiativesponsored wind farms and Initiative

         sponsored solar farms.

* Beginconstruction of the first 8 nuclear power plants using best existing breederreactor technology with added safeguards.

Year 4.0

* All new commercial buildings tobe built to new "Green" standards.

* Beginconstruction of East - West high speed railroad line from New York to Chicago.

            * All cars produced or sold in the United Statesto be powered by natural gas, electricity or hydrogen.

* All newlocomotives built or sold in the United States to be run or bothelectricity pick ups and diesel oil.

Year 5.0

* Beginconstruction of the North - South high speed railroad line from Chicago to New Orleans.

      * Complete construction of the electrifiedEast Coast, high speed railroad.

      * Begin construction of the second 6Intestate Hydrogen Highways on Interstates I81, I70, I55, I40, I35, and I90.

Year 6.0

*All new lighttrucks built or sold in the United States to be run on natural gas, electricityor hydrogen.  

Year 7.0

* Beginconstruction of next 8 nuclear breeder reactor power plants using the sameengineering plans as the first 8 plants to reduce construction cost includingimprovements made to first 8 plants.

Year 8.0

* Alllocomotives conversion from diesel to natural gas or hydrogen andelectrical    power pickups for theelectrified sections of track.

Year 9.0

* Completeconstruction of the electrified railroads within 100 mile radius of majorcities containing 2 million or more residents.

      * Complete construction of theelectrified West Coast high speed railroad.

            *Completion of the first 4 Interstate Hydrogen Highways.

Year 10.0

           *Completion of East - West high speed railroad.

* Complete construction ofInitiative sponsored wind farms.

Year 11.0

* Begin construction of third set20 of Interstate Hydrogen Highways.

      * Complete construction of theelectrified railroads within 100 miles of major 

               citiescontaining 1 million or more residents.

     *Completion of first 8 nuclear power plants

            *Completion of North - South high speed railroad.

Year 12.0

      * All light trucks built or sold in the United Statesto be run on electricity or    hydrogen.

            * Completeconstruction of second 6 Interstate Hydrogen Highways.

* Beginconstruction of all remaining Interstate Highways to Hydrogen   Highways.

Year 13.0

            * Begin construction of next 8nuclear power plants with the same engineering as the previous 20 plants.

            * Completion of second set of 8nuclear power plants.

Year 19.0

* Completionof New Power grids to from Nuclear, Solar and Wind farm locations to grid anddestinations.

Year 14.0

            *Completion of third set of 20 Interstate Hydrogen Highways

Year 15.0

* Completeconstruction of the electrification of railroads within 100 miles of majorcities containing 500,000 or more residents.

            * Completeconstruction of Initiative sponsored solar farms

* All heavytrucks built or sold in the United States to be run on electricity or hydrogen.

Year 16.0

    * Begin Construction of third set ofnuclear power plants.

    * Shut down of at least 50% of all coalfired electrical generating plants.

Year 17.0

           * All carsbuilt or sold in the United States to be run on electricity or hydrogen.

Year 18.0

           * Conversion of all US registeredships to natural gas, hydrogen or alternate power sources other than burningcarbon-based materials.       

Year 20.0

          * Completionof half of all remaining Interstate Hydrogen Highways

Year 21.0

          * Completionof last 8 nuclear power plants.

Year 22.0

          * Completionof all remaining Interstate Hydrogen Highways.

          * Shut downof remaining coal fired electrical generating plants.

Cultural / Citizen Involvements / Impacts

The simplest way to impact the need for manufacturing jobs inthe United States is torequire that the C.E.P.A.T. Initiative involve the citizens of the United States.That can be accomplished by requiring that all products and services used inthe nuclear, wind, solar, electrical transmission, and conversion to natural gasin the automotive areas employ only US citizens, and that the materials andassemblies, contain a minimum of 50% content built in the United States.This will increase jobs for citizens and cause a massive requirement fornon-citizens to apply for and become US citizens. It will also create a massivedemand for technical personal, further strengthening the technical andscientific base in the US.As job markets absorb more people, there will be a surge in savings andpurchasing that will help fuel economic growth.

The coal and oil industries will not need to shut down orloose any significant amount of workers because the projections for oil and gasand coal required for export will increase. Chinaalone can become a major importer of any surplus oil the United Statesmay have. This would also decrease our trade deficit.

Further to assist in reducing the cycle of human character destruction,those on welfare will be offered free education and job training to complete ahigh school diploma or skill trade apprenticeship and upon graduation will beoffered a job in a C.E.P.A.T. Initiative program. Every citizen removed fromthe welfare system is a victory for the United States and for theindividual as well.

Conclusions

The decarburization of American energy usage will rely on nuclear,solar, wind and other non-carbon fuels for power generation and electricity andhydrogen for transportation by the end of the Initiative. Because of the effortand expense of this vision, this paper might be described as a vision of"Mission Impossible" however to obtain great changes, great plans and greatpeople are needed. We have great people; we simply need great leaders and greatplans to solve our present crisis now and for the future. It is a fact that theUnited Statestoday is a nation in debt. In fact, economists and Wall Street personnel oftendescribe the United Statesas a debtor nation. Our economy and therefore our country are in the hands offoreign interests. We stand on the edge of destruction and it is of our ownmaking. We can reverse this condition. We MUST REVERSE this situation and weMUST BEGIN NOW because the crisis is becoming greater each day. In the years tocome it will NOT be reversible. Our lack of action on a national level has putus in this situation and only by bold governmental leadership with long termactions on the part of all citizens and organizations, can the situation bereversed and the crisis resolved.

Michael M. McRae August 14th, 2008