Auto Expert: Details Will Determine If New Energy Bill Harms Automakers

One of Detroit’s foremost automotive experts says it’s too early to tell if automakers will be harmed by new legislation that calls for their fleets to reach .

“We know it will add to cost of the vehicles,” says David Cole, chairman for the Center for Automotive Research and a former-professor of automotive engineering at the University of Michigan. “But we don’t know what the details are yet. Once we know the details, we can do a better analysis.”

For American automakers, the key is how trucks will be treated. If they are treated differently than cars, then automakers may be able to reach the new standard without terrible financial pain. If trucks and cars are treated equally, however, then companies with high percentages of trucks may struggle.

Cole says that today’s engines can improve their fuel efficiency by 20-25 percent using technology that wouldn’t be overly costly. Still, manufacturers such as Chrysler, with a 70-percent truck lineup, would be hard pressed to reach the new figure, unless special allowances were made for trucks.

Another key element in the new legislation is the treatment of alternative fuel credits. If a vehicle such as the Chevy Volt were re-engineered to operate on E85 fuel (which uses only 15 percent gasoline), gasoline mileages could potentially be calculated at 300 mpg (assuming that 85 percent of the fuel did not count as gasoline), making it easier to reach 35 mpg. If special credit is not given for E85, however, the picture is not as rosy.

“Some of the manufacturers might be privately saying, ’This really cool,’” Cole says. “A few will be able to use it as a competitive advantage. If it’s harder for your competition to (reach 35 mpg), then you have an advantage.” One such advantage, he says, is a lineup composed of compact cars.

Cole also says that diesel engines will help boost mileage, especially in light-duty, full-sized SUVs and pickup trucks. “There’s a whole new wave of those kinds of vehicles coming,” he explains.

He adds, however, that diesel is only one of many solutions, mainly because of petroleum market realities. “The idea that we’re all going to jump to diesel in a big way is an oversimplification,” he notes. “We can’t do it all with diesel.”

Read a more detailed story on the technology in the 10/08 issue of Design News.