"You can mandate supply, but you cannot mandate demand." They are threatening to fine manufacturers if they can't convince customers to buy ZEVs. Commenters have suggested that it could drive manufacturers to sell at a loss or leave the California market. In a story about the Tesla "Gigafactory," it was indicated that the result would be a "mass market" vehicle with a price tag in the $30-$40k range. I would really like to pay less than that for my next car. If I can get one with an ICE for less, then that's what I'll buy.
Also, range limits are real. My commute is 5 miles one way; very doable with an EV. However, my work takes me throughout the DC metro area and throughout the Mid-Altantic at times. Personally, I live in suburban DC and my family is in suburban Philly. Do they really think that I'm going to buy a car that forces me to make a stopover to recharge? The other "green" alternative would be to spend hours longer riding Metro to Union Station, Amtrack to 30th St. Station and then the Paoli Local to the burbs, where I would need a ride to my destination. Not happening.
Bunter, you're right that the poor aren't getting much from this at the moment. The logic behind it is to drive production volume up, so that automakers can benefit from economies of scale, and ultimately sell electric cars to the masses. The problem is that history tells us that it's difficult to put EVs on such a schedule.
Print money, drive inflation, everybody pays more, govt does better(ish). Poor and middle class hardest hit.
Legislate to drive up energy costs. Blame "Big Oil". Poor and middle class hardest hit.
Funny how the chaps claiming to be for "the little guy" often pursue policies that cost the poor the most (but are not easily traceable to the politician like a per se tax is). Are they stupid, cynical or all of the above (I pick all of...).
No need to kick them out of the union if they would enforce current immigration laws. Besides, high speed rail will be the ticket when the politicians determine that the zero emissions requirements are not being met and carmakers are restricted on selling ICE vehicles.
What will most likely end up happening is the Auto companies will have to sell these vechiles at a loss to get enough people to buy them and then make up for it on the other models. Just as goverment always does it will be a hidden tax on those of us that do not conform to the will of the almighty rulers. When will the plebes in California finally get this through their skull?
Can we Kick a state out of the Union< Just asking?
You hit the bullseye with this quote "You can mandate supply, but you cannot mandate demand." It really sums the issue up very neatly.
Even with a lower price this year the Volt (which seems a neat little car) saw it's sales stagnate. With the exception of Tesla the market was not encouraging.
I remember when the retro Ford Thunderbird came out the demand was very high. Then it crashed hard. By the time the Chevy SSR came out everyone that wanted a retro-cool ride had one and it was a flop (I like the SSR better, it was late to the party).
The market was hot, but not very deep. No legs.
I suspect that the current market, for the range/price/utility mix possible with current technology (and the tech probable in, say, the next ten years), may be saturating for EVs.
It may not be a sustainable market at this point. Not deep. No legs. (Cue ZZTop)
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