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Reliabilityguru
User Rank
Platinum
RE: Needs
Reliabilityguru   8/19/2013 11:10:00 AM
NO RATINGS
CO2 models have failed over the last century and especially over the last decade so I challenge "the math". In the 1970's the popular theory was CO2 and particulates were reflecting much of the sun's energy back into space causing the Earth to cool. I prefer the more recent warming theory. Can we vote to decide which way it's going to go? Climate science is environmental activism on steroids.

trees
User Rank
Iron
RE: Needs
trees   8/17/2013 10:39:44 PM
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Well everybody knows that the energy density of batteries is nowhere near the energy density of gasoline. Wiki lists gasoline at 46MJ/Kg, and LiIon at 0.75MJ/Kg. Discount gasoline by about 3X to 15MJ/Kg because on average a 30MPG gas car turns into a 100MPGe electric car. And the battery is subject to temperature as you mentioned. But, the performance is not as bad as indicated. No one wants to displace the ICE based on performance. No one wants to be limited in range. 

Again, the driving reason for electric vehicles is because fossil fuels are destroying the planet. ice age CO2 concentration was 180ppm. Pre-industrial CO2 concentration ws 280ppm. Now the CO2 concentration is 400+ppm, and climbing. Do the math.

The climb in CO2 concentration is because of the burning of fossil fuels that would not normally be part of the carbon cycle, where the CO2 being emitted by all sources is balanced by CO2 being absorbed by all sources. 

The north pole is bi-stable. It will either be frozen and reflect most of the sunlight. Or, it will be water, absorbing most of the sunlight. It will soon switch states because of the warming. The arctic temperature will no longer be held in check by the ice. It is time to stop this experiment with mother nature.

trees
User Rank
Iron
Re: Range Anxiety-Global warming?
trees   8/11/2013 10:06:51 PM
NO RATINGS
Hi Dennis, I'm away from the computer, and thus unable to quickly find links to reply with. I see that someone gave information about radiation for your information. That is very important. Physics. Thermodynamics. How would you expect a rock in space to change temperature? Well, it could be radioactive like the sun, and the lecel of radioactivity could change. Or it could be a coal rock on fire, and the rate of bur.ing could change. Or hot boddies frome spave could bombarde it. Or the radiation from space falling on it could change. Or thr radiation from the rock could change. The rumor I heard is that Congress asked the scientists to check every possible reason for the change in temperature, st considerable taxpayer expence. The evidence rulled out all possibe causes eccept for green house gasses. CO2 was found to be the main culprit. The basic problem is that the CO2 generated by burning fossil fuels is in excess of what the earth systems could absorb. Combine that with all the other havok that man has brought to the earth, and we get a growing excess of CO2. CO2 acts like a blanket that is getting thicker. and who's effective thickness is incteasing. Two spectral bands of CO2 are thus becoming more radiation blocking for heat leaving the earth. Less radiation out means earth temperature rise. As for temperature readings, the one stretch of flat data seems insignificant. Looking at all the various data, it ic clear that the planet is heating. What is alarming to me is that every time we burn a gallon of gas, we increase the CO2 imbalance, and thus the energy flow imbalance, for who knows how long? centuries? millinea? It is not just the heat from burning the gas, it is multiplied many many times over. trees

patb2009
User Rank
Gold
Re: Range Anxiety-Global warming?
patb2009   8/11/2013 8:17:17 PM
NO RATINGS
dennis

 

the first proof that the atmosphere drove planetary warming was done by Fourier.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_climate_change_science#Paleoclimate_change_and_theories_of_its_causes.2C_19th_century

 

Joseph Fourier, in 1824, found that Earth's atmosphere kept the planet warmer than would be the case in a vacuum, and he made the first calculations of the warming effect. Fourier recognized that the atmosphere transmitted visible light waves efficiently to the earth's surface. The earth then absorbed visible light and emitted infrared radiation in response, but the atmosphere did not transmit infrared efficiently, which therefore increased surface temperatures. He also suspected that human activities could influence climate, although he focused primarily on land use changes. In a 1827 paper Fourier stated, "The establishment and progress of human societies, the action of natural forces, can notably change, and in vast regions, the state of the surface, the distribution of water and the great movements of the air. Such effects are able to make to vary, in the course of many centuries, the average degree of heat; because the analytic expressions contain coefficients relating to the state of the surface and which greatly influence the temperature."[9]"

 

then 

 

A Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius, used Langley's observations of increased infrared absorption where Moon rays pass through the atmosphere at a low angle, encountering more carbon dioxide (CO2), to estimate an atmospheric cooling effect from a future decrease of CO2. He realized that the cooler atmosphere would hold less water vapor (another greenhouse gas) and calculated the additional cooling effect. He also realized the cooling would increase snow and ice cover at high latitudes, making the planet reflect more sunlight and thus further cool down, as James Croll had hypothesized. Overall Arrhenius calculated that cutting CO2 in half would suffice to produce an ice age. He further calculated that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 would give a total warming of 5-6 degrees Celsius.

 

now this was slide rule and pen and paper math.

Since then a century of oservations and science has only showed this is correlating.

 

the underlying science is simple,Everything else is Politics.

 

When you can work out the answer on a envelope, it's pretty direct, since then all the first order issues have been worse.

 

patb2009
User Rank
Gold
RE: Needs
patb2009   8/11/2013 8:07:39 PM
NO RATINGS
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/files/2012/07/electric-vehicle-adoption.jpg

 

 

dennis

 

below $3/gallon it's very hard for an EV to be competitive on a life cycle basis

above $5/Gal it makes almost no Gas car competitive, everything else is on

the battery split.

 

the same thing aplies on battery price.

 

The price of battery is declining nicely

http://www.altenergystocks.com/assets/Slide%2014.bmp

 

that's why the issue is inevitable.

Bunter
User Rank
Platinum
RE: Needs
Bunter   8/11/2013 5:29:53 PM
NO RATINGS
Yes Pat we will see.

I think the amount of improvement to move a pure EV from toy-to-mainstream will be a good while.

By 2020.  Won't surprise me if there is a bit more market penetration but I don't think it will be much.  Also won't surprise me if EVs recede, companies get sick of products they have to sell at a loss pretty fast.

I havebeen waiting for Toyota to do a hybrid mini-van (did one in japan).  Wish they woud hurry up, especially as I buy used.

I think I would love an EV van that met all my current needs at a market competitive price.  I am not  anti-EV.  But I'm not holding my breath.

Cheerio,

Dennis

Bunter
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Range Anxiety-Global warming?
Bunter   8/11/2013 5:22:09 PM
NO RATINGS
Hi Trees,

Shooting from home, was a busy week.

I will get you some source links, not bookmarked on this computer.

My comments are from items I have read over several years and I won't likely find one neat and tidy source.  I waded through a lot searching for answers.

Background: back in the olden days (when AGW was born) I accepted it at face value, and like every boy growing up in the 60s adored NASA and took in anything they said as gospel.

Fast-forward to the 90's, seen a lot more, college, engineering, life.  Still took it at face-value you but one thing rather grabbed my attention.  All the folks saying AGW is real were saying vesions of "no seriou8s scientists dispute this".  Trouble was my wife and I (she's a chemist) kept seeing items in our professional literature from people who were clearly serious scientists in relevant fields that did not agree.

Whenever I see one group saying I should ignore another group, and unfairly denigrating their persons and credentials I get really curious about why.  So I started looking at what these "non-existant" non-serious scientist had to say. It took time.  It will take you time also.

NASA-I do not really know why they are pushing AGW. History is full of well meaning scientific groups taht got "it" wrong.  It is full of periods when the prevaililng zeitgeist proved to be nonsense.

Surface temps.  I think you will find the skeptical of AGW camp to be of similar mind.  This 15 years is evidense, lnot proof.  as they also veiw the 20 years prior.

Keep in mind that the AGW group was beating the surface temp record drum very hard until it no longer served their view.  They used it as primary evidense for a couple of decades.  Now...?

Heat in earth and ocean-exaclty.  The skeptics have pointing this out all along.  Following the cycles and looking at the surface temp records and seeing how/if they fit together.

Sea ice-actually recent years not so much loss in the arctic this year is, thus far, rather a good ice year.  There are many factors that affect sea ice, I have come to understand that shifts in ocean currents can bring warmer water north and melt far faster (more heat content as you noted) tahn air temp will.  Obviously not a factor on Greenland.  Keep in mind taht the southern hemisphere has been in general the reverse though not enough to balanc ethe global temp.  Expanding sea ice in particular.

Radiation? Not familiar with the arguements there.

Rats.  Just running out of time.  This is a long complex issue and blogs are just snap-shots.

Am enjoying the back and forth.  Love a good tussle with a fair and good tempered opponent.  So rare.

Dennis

patb2009
User Rank
Gold
RE: Needs
patb2009   8/11/2013 4:25:22 PM
NO RATINGS
Bunter

 

the difference between incremental and quantum leap is the distance you look at something.

 

battery tech is going exponential

 

http://www.akbars.net/images/battery%20energy%20density.png

http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/Battery%20Energy%20Density.jpg

 

what's driving this?  Demand pull.  

Batteries are 200 years old but there was no market demand.  All the changes have

happened over the last 50 years as portable electronics demand more battery.

i think by 2020, everyone will be saying, well of course, i knew electrics would be a big part of the market.

 

THere are reasons for this demand pull now, the CAFE at 54 MPG, will push demand,

Continued gas spikes and increasing capacity.  

A Prius used to be a funky Tercel, then it became a funky Compact, now it's in the Camry and Avalon.  What's the price boost on a hybrid vs an ICE Car? a couple grand, and that pays in gas in the first 2 years.  I would expect in the next 2-3 years, Toyota will hybridize their whole fleet, and begin making plug ins across the fleet.  

 

tell you what, we will see what's happening in 2016.

 

 

AnandY
User Rank
Gold
Re-Range and Refuel Time
AnandY   8/11/2013 3:59:17 AM
NO RATINGS
The range anxiety is a real issue that the engineers should be very concerned about since thinking that people buy cars to satisfy their average needs is quite hypothetical, the exceptional needs come into play more than the basics of which we think we need the car for. Renting a car for the exceptional needs is not something that anyone would like especially if one has spent a considerable amount on the electric car.

AnandY
User Rank
Gold
RE: RANGE ANXIETY
AnandY   8/11/2013 3:52:48 AM
NO RATINGS
In as much as driving range may not be an issue for the EV, it cannot be totally ignored. I agree with Toyota's bid to support a hybrid plug-in. this will not only increase the range but also ensure that skeptics are put in check. One should always have a contingency plan no matter how sure they may be. This in the long run will help EV dealers keep up their sales turnover

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