Battery Technology is the problem, it has been the problem for 100 years, and it will always be the problem unless a whole new chemistry or physics paradigm is discovered. I am not making this up it is well known. This has been the topic here at Design News numerous times over the past few years, including the fact that the existing chemistries have been exploited. The energy density is not there.
Moore's Law does not apply to batteries or motors or EV related technology. Reminds me of a design review where one performance problem after another gets deferred by the hardware designers with the stipulation that the issue can be fixed with a software change. Then the packaging engineer presents the weight budget and the system is 5% overweight. The software engineer stands and says I'll fix that in the software too.
As many have noted before in various forums the battery=computer tech improvement analogy is pretty weak. Batteries are a 200 year old technology. Yes they are improving-but the speed is really rather incremental rather than quatum leaps.
Look at the key focus of this blog-an engineer working directly on these problems is saying that the range issue is in our heads. If he saw the battery tech ready to make a big jump he would not be making these excuses-he would say "hey, in 1, 2...5 years this will be a dead issue.
My impression is that he wants us to accept short range and like it because it isn't going away soon.
Agree that the Prius is a success. A mid-size car (many make the mistake of rating it compact because of the exterior size), for the price of a mid-size with the mileage of a motorcycle. Zero adaptation to use and operate. Pretty easy sale.
The plug-ins and EVs? All cutting prices to improve sales. One could argue that they have cut costs, but as the cuts come right on the heels of dropping sales I have my doubts. That's how biz works, if the products strong you get you maximize your margins, if the product is flagging you try to control inventory growth with lower prices. It's not rocket science.
Battery energy technology is not there. Improvement is still required. EV's need orders of magnitude more energy than what can be stored in the batteries available today. Tesla and others are putting huge batteries in their EVs and getting marginal range/performance when compared to a gasoline car. When the temp is below freezing these rolling batteries can't deliver enough energy to move themselves let alone provide an occupant the creature comforts of heat, defroster, headlight. And at teh other extreme, the desert environment will prematurly age batteries. Charles F Kettering invented the starter in 1908. That was the end of EVs.
So, the bottom line is that the current market for EVs is Global Warming Evangelists who are willing to put up with the economics. The rest of us will consider them when they're not perceived as paying more to get less.
Thank you for your thought provoking response. I hope you are not too offended if I impuned that your lenses were the wrong color. It seems that you are much more familiar with the various arguments and theories than I am. I have only recently dived into this subject, after retirement.
Nevertheless, I can't change my mind based on your words alone. Can you please site these sources of alternate theory that predicts the earth's temperature so well?
It is my understanding that the flat 15 years record was of surface air temperatures. (I'm going from memory). Meanwhile, all other charts I look at showed temperature increasing. There is so much noise in the data (heck, you can't even take a reading that you are sure of to within +/1 1 degree, and they argue about less than a tenth of a degree). If it is surface temperature, in my thinking it doesn't say much. We all know that ice stays at the same temperature as it melts. We all know that water holds about 4000 times more heat per degree than air. We know that earth holds about 1000 times more heat than air.
In other words, I'm not convinced that that particular 15 degrees you are refering to is that important. The sea ice continues to thin, the glaciers continue to melt.
Second, we both know that the earth, moving through space, can only gain or loose heat through three thermodynamic processes: radiation, conduction, or convection. And only radiation applies because we don't have an extra flow of warm mass to the earth.
That leaves us with radiation. .... And, who has taken radiation measurements? Well, I think that is the data presented by Nasa. I understand that scientists have also sampled radiation flow from the earth, and 'sort of' confirmed that it matches the NASA data. It is difficult to measure that from earth.
I can't think of any reason that NASA would be biased in their reports. I don't think it would be easy for them to published biased data based on politics, given that the population is evenly split. I don't know of any conflicting data from any source. Do you?
In conclusion, I think the data supports a shortage of heat from the earth, primarily caused by man made CO2 and methane release, both of whose spectral power match the data.
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