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naperlou
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Re: Incentives a trap
naperlou   7/16/2013 10:57:32 PM
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So, Chuck, that would be a fourfold increase over the next seven years.  Actually that is wrong.  I was using half year numbers if I read your article correctly.  That puts us at about 0.3% now.  So, we are talking about doubling in seven years.  That sounds about right.

Charles Murray
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Re: Incentives a trap
Charles Murray   7/16/2013 7:17:44 PM
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Navigant Research has predicted that pure EVs will account for about 0.6% of the new car market in 2020, naperlou.  

Charles Murray
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Re: How much for an EV?
Charles Murray   7/16/2013 7:05:42 PM
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I agree, Al, range is still an issue, especially for consumers who may be able to afford only one car. Not everyone can afford to have a second car to go longer distances.

apresher
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How much for an EV?
apresher   7/16/2013 2:29:28 PM
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Price is one issue but the range of the vehicle is an even more important issue. Otherwise, they are crippled for most people as a possibility.  That said, a 10% or more price incentive and along with the tax incentives will result in more sales/volume.

naperlou
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Incentives a trap
naperlou   7/16/2013 10:33:11 AM
Chuck, I think with the right technology that EVs might be viable in the future.  For now, the industry lives on incentives.  This is not sustainable (pun intended).  If you look at other green industries that have relied heavily on incentives even though they do not actually meet the requirement, you will see that.  The best examples are wind and solar energy (I mean PV).  These do mitigate some use of fosil fuels, but they have not resulted in the closing of traditional power sources.  This is becuase the requirement for power generation is that it be always available.  Wind and PV are not.  Without some way to efficiently store power  and distribute it, these will remain creatures of the subsidy.  In Europe, especially countires in the south (e.g., Spain) where the economic situation has necessitated the removal of subsidies, the industry is in bad shape.  This is just like the situation with EVs.  The technology is not quite there to do what most people need from their vehicles.  Again, subsidies have made up for the lack of appropriate technology.

 

As for the production numbers you cite, I find it interesting.  This works out to 0.15% of cars sold (I am assuming 14M in the US).  The numbers are almost the level of MG B production averaged over the time those cars were produced. 

warren@fourward.com
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Platinum
Re: Not me!
warren@fourward.com   7/16/2013 10:21:16 AM
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I am working through my fear.  I am almost ready to give up my dial telephone.  But it will be very difficult.  However, I have given up my Marconi spark transmitter!  And those new superheterodyne radios are something else!  The things they can do with valves!

Jerry dycus
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Gold
Re: Not me!
Jerry dycus   7/16/2013 9:23:00 AM
Warren, isn't it hard to live in such fear? You should look into that.  Have you ever heard of AAA?

 

Ford is a perfect example of big auto not wanting to build, sell EV's by overweight, overpriced and overteched ones so they are unaffordable.

 

What we need are lightweight, medium tech aerodynamic EV's like the GM UltraLite and smaller.

 

But now they have dropped the prices as more reasonable and they now have long waiting lists and car makers like Honda saying they won't increase production to meet demand

As they should since the batteries cost far less than they are telling us.  Tesla said their costs are much lower than claimed by big auto.   Tesla's cells are under $200/kwhr and droping and packs are under $300/kwhr.

 

We buy quality large cells now retail for $400/kwhr  so I think big auto pays quite a lot less than that.

 

 

warren@fourward.com
User Rank
Platinum
Not me!
warren@fourward.com   7/16/2013 8:43:40 AM
I don't want a strictly EV vehicle at any price.  Sorry.  I fear the lack of range, recharging time and locations, and the need for service in an emergency.

I would much prefer the hybrid.  In an emergency I can fill up with gas and be on my way.

Sorry Ford, GMC, etc.  And I am not alone...

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