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patb2009
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Gold
Re: too optimistic revisited
patb2009   5/26/2013 6:41:22 PM
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William

 

You are behind the times.  

 

http://www.sunlightelectric.com/pvmodules.php

Production PV produces 11-16 W/SQFT.  My little row house the roof can produce 5 KW,

and if we use the south wall, I can produce 8 KW, more then enough to power a house and

an EV.

 

If i set up a few panels on the deck i can get to 10 KW.

 

Lots of Generation if we use Parking lots. Do the Math.

 

 

William K.
User Rank
Platinum
Re: too optimistic revisited
William K.   5/26/2013 5:22:29 PM
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Pat b, I am sure that the utility top management is indeed hoping for major growth in the amount that they can sell, but I am wondering where it will come from, since all forms of generation are opposed by some groups. They don't like wind turbines or hydroelectric dams, they don't want coal fired generation nor do they want atomic power generation. Photoelectirc power generation may be acceptable to them but it takes a lot to go from photocells to power mains, and the realestse needed is quite latge. On top of that, while the Tesla is a very nice car I would never cconsider purchasing a car that costly, just because it is that costly. Probably a lot of others feel that way as well. I hav better things to do with my money thatn buy a car like that.

But aside from that, electric cars are just not going to be the major form of transport for quite a while, mostly for reasons other than the initial purchase price. They are simply way to much of what they are, way more complex internally than any other cars, which will make them way more expensive to service than any other cars, with the instant result being that for the folks who keep a car more than a year they will be an obviously poor choice, and a lot of people are going to understand that in the near future. That will be the end of the electric car boom. They will still be around, but not in the dominant market share hoped for.

patb2009
User Rank
Gold
Re: too optimistic revisited
patb2009   5/25/2013 11:13:08 PM
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William

 

The Utilities are hoping the Electric cars will grow their market by 35%.

 

 

William K.
User Rank
Platinum
Re: too optimistic revisited
William K.   5/25/2013 11:02:21 PM
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The challenge of increasing grid capacity is that it will not lead to a greater capability margin, but instead it will bring about increased consumption. That is the way business works, since unused capacity represents a capital investment not generating any returns, which is what gets CEOs repalced. So as fast as additional generating capacity comes on line there will be a big push to sell that additional power to pay for the investment made in production capacity. That is very fundamentaklly how it works in successful businesses. Of course, it may be a bit different in California, which is not tied nearly as tightly to reality as the rest of the world understands it.

patb2009
User Rank
Gold
Re: too optimistic revisited
patb2009   5/23/2013 7:24:19 PM
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while you can pump 2000 miles of range into a car, it's kind of silly, because,

frankly after 200 miles i'm hungry and i usually stop every 100 miles for coffee and a rest break.

For even serious trips, i rarely go more then 3 hours without a rest break.

 

as for grid capacity, at the rate PV is coming into the grid, they won't know what to do with it by 2020.

William K.
User Rank
Platinum
Re: too optimistic revisited
William K.   5/23/2013 5:55:29 PM
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In thirty minutes I can pump enough gas to go at least two thousand miles, and at some stations that have faster pumps, one could pump at least 5000 miles woth of gas in a half hour. But that is just theoretical because my tank only holds enough gas for about 250 miles. So at my slow-pumps-but-cheap-gas station my fill up takes most of two minutes.

My other concern is that all of this power that will be "pulled off the grid" is presently being sold for other purposes, and while the distribution network may be upgrading, the utilities are being prevented fro  building any more generating capacity. 

Am I the only one who sees a conflict in the future?

patb2009
User Rank
Gold
Re: Motor Trend Car of the Year
patb2009   5/21/2013 10:32:32 PM
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In 2011 the Volt got car of the year and european car of the year.

 

Electrics have a lot of potential

patb2009
User Rank
Gold
Re: too optimistic revisited
patb2009   5/21/2013 10:30:19 PM
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Tesla has a 100 Amp supercharger,  puts 150 miles of range in about 30 minutes.

I like to have a snack every 3 hours anyways, so, it's not too intractable.

 

as for capacity, the ratio of pumps to chargers will be about 1:4, but, it's easy for

EV chargers to leverage the existing power grid.

 

 

Charles Murray
User Rank
Blogger
Re: too optimistic revisited
Charles Murray   5/21/2013 6:56:21 PM
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All of the issues you mentioned are very real, William K. The reason they don't show up here is that Consumer Reports is using traditional evaluation techniques to evaluate an untraditional car. The problem is that cornering, braking, acceleration and all of the other traditional parameters provide an important part of the picture, but they fail to give a full accounting in the terms you describe. I really believe that as pure electrics become of bigger part of the automotive mix, consumer evaluations will have to evolve, as well.

jpratch
User Rank
Gold
Re: too optimistic revisited
jpratch   5/21/2013 4:00:54 PM
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Ahhhh, yes, the Peoples Republic of California where energy prices can be fixed and yet the hope is that supply will still increase so Power Companies can cover their losses with higher volume.

Of course folks in California DO NOT like high voltage cables criss-crossing their land either so distribution poses a problem as well. And don't even breathe the word "Nuclear Power" there.

 

Yes, they ARE their own emeny. If California is successful, any State in the union can do it. But the correlary may not hold. Some States may be able to do it.

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