Hi Jack, good questions. The other guy could learn from you.
Let's just get to yes I understand production as I've produced composite boats/yachts for 40 yrs. And you won't find a harder industry to survive in.
And before I had health problems I was on course to put my all composite 2 seat EV sportwagon into production. I'm doing an EV Streamliner for production first as less costly to get started.
And don't worry they will be first rate. Most of what you see on the web I built for under $1k for fun and cheap transport, many in wood/epoxy!!, plus trying out new things before doing the real work of a production one.
And my FreedomEV has great quality from production tooling as you'll see next yr. But I don't have the $100k to put it into production.
Safety isn't a problem as equaling and likely beating a regular car isn't hard. What is expensive is the legal and paperwork. But as mine are subcars they legally are MC's and have almost no standards so I can just deal with making them safe.
By the time I get done with them, second generation in about 3 yrs, my goal is near crash proofing though I can't tell you how for now for patent reasons but very based in science.
So yes do I help, encouage DIY and build my own, a big YES!!! And I'm proud of it. But to try to use that against me is poor form.
To be honest craftsmen like myself make the best things in the world and make the most real innovations as not weighed down by big corporate who's goal is justifying their paycheck no matter what.
You do understand more countries than China sell their batteries don't you? I'm planning on using US cells but fine ones can be had from Japan, Korea, etc too at $400/kwhr.
And you do know Tesla uses the $200/kwhr OEM cells assembled into modules? I'd like to buy their modules to make my pack.
And there are some nice modules/bricks of many sizes like 43vdc and 100amphrs with built in BMS that are likely how I'll go with 2-3 of. But so many different choices now and by the time I get though them all more will likely be available.
As far as viable transport I'll have to set the price really high, $40k or so, just to be able handle the demand. My only competetion is the E Tracer at around $90k and I can do the same in 50% of the weight because I'm really good at composites. You can see why I picked it as very nice profits.
Air conditioning and unlimited range etender at 80mph optional. Again not very DIY.
Again running a single battery "hard" is not the same as making millions safely, with near 0 defects, 10 year + life in all environmental conditions, etc. .. And actually making specs. I am sorry that point is lost in our discussions.
10 hours and 1000 dollars ... With millions in tooling? How do you define production? If you are going into production I assume you have passed crash tests or are you trying to classify as a motorcycle? 2kwh?
Perhaps you would like to share full details of what you are actually going into production with? You provided no details in your post but have implied that you are building a true two seater CAR.
Fyi, the only vested interest I have is my own as battery tech is important to me. I am sorry you feel the need to insult me to make a point.
You certainly didn't post like a battery charger designer with so many errors.
You need to see the latest crop of batteries out there which are far better than even a yr ago. Quality is way up because no one would buy them.
For example google EV Motorcycles for Bramo, Zero, etc all running these $400/kwkr lithiums hard in races and even beating gas MC's at times. Am I haven't even been though 50% of my choices yet. The EV TT racing has stepped up everyones gains.
For instance did you know the fastest production bike, the Lightning, is electric at 218mph IIRC?
And why would they be my choices? Because I'm in the process of going into production of the ones mentioned starting with a 2wh EV Streamiliner. Not very DIY is that?
I'm an inventor, designer and pick the best, most cost effective from anywhere and I see little difference between the cells in the Volt, Leaf or Tesla and the ones I buy. Just saying they are better defies auto industry history.
As for price I can beat steel easily because mine only has 10 manhrs in the body/chassis, doors, etc composite parts. It'll cost me under $1k for all that. Can you build as well as fast as complete as light or as cheap in steel? Deal with it.
As for safety I use racecar tech and mawny other methods including some that are patentable.
Again your opinion is misinformed by a large amount because you listen to vested interests and believe them. That just isn't wise as your post shows.
So have fun and I'll be in production soon and you can tell your friends 'I told him he couldn't do that' like all the experts that are not.
Jerry, I, like anyone else on the web can see the numerous posts you have made on many many forums w.r.t. electric vehicles. It is a topic I have followed for many years and know it is just a matter of time before I own one as my primary vehicle.
I have no doubt you have extensive knowledge in DIY electric cars and building "one-off" electric vehicles.
However, there is a big difference between what you are doing and building a commercial, average consumer ready vehicle that passes all requisite safety standards and meets required automotive quality levels. Even after billions in development, there were still concerns w.r.t. fire with the Volt (any personal feelings on its design/viability aside). The suppliers supplying $400/KWH lithium batteries out of China would never pass first world quality standards. Even in their home country they would be unlikely to supply those same cells into tier-1 automotive suppliers either foreign or Chinese domestic.
Similarly, the chassis constructions of yours I have seen on the web are not what the average consumer would accept as a vehicle.
I have no doubt it is a viable transportation vehicle for you, but you are not the average consumer.
Actually I have designed battery chargers and I am well well aware of battery technology. My prices are NOT based on automotive manufacturers trying to scam me, but real world price as researched by numerous analysts and technology experts.
I too can buy "tolerable" quality 1KWH Lithium battery packs for $400, but having worked in automotive, I know the quality controls in place for those pacts both at the design, manufacturing, and test stages are not up to the standards of what the automotive industry will support. To that end, $250/KWH does not exist for an automotive battery in todays market using Lithium tech. I don't think it is $700 either .... likey closer to $400-500.
That is just one battery or pack too. When we look at a 10-20KWH pack with the requisite management, i.e. charge management, cooling, etc. we start going up in price quickly. Oh, not to mention increased overhead when those companies have to start behaving as professional companies in the automotive world.
I am not talking DIY EV here, but real world production EV.
Why are lithium batteries expensive? Some of it is material cost, but not so much the lithium which is a relatively small cost currently. Most of it is born out in a more complex manufacturing process than lead-acid and as above, cell and system level management and complexity. Some of it is certainly due to not having the same economies of scale. Some of the low cost is due to low wages in China, something that we cannot count on forever, so in terms of forward pricing models, you have to look at relative wage growth in China in your cost curves.
In terms of not using the top -10% of a lead acid battery, that was purely tongue in cheek. I am well aware that you need to supply as much as 110% of the delivered energy to ensure that no sulfation occurs. 103% may work on a new battery, but not one that is getting on in life and then again it also depends on whether flooded, AGM, GEL, etc. Depend on the tech you want to use, you may even want to check into some of the NREL studies on advanced charge algorithms to reduce sulfation. Of course with that lead-acid battery, always have to make sure you charge it fully on a regular basis. The inherent accelerated loss of capacity at >35C really limits its effectiveness as well.
How many deep cycle flooded sealed batteries are you aware of? I am not sure I can name any. Deep cycle batteries tend to be either flooded or AGM/Gel valve regulated. To achieve reliable deep cycle performance with a flooded battery you are going to have gas production/water loss hence not sealed so that you can top them up. If you went with a sealed construction you would greatly reduce cycle life.
In terms of Axion, why is it a scam? Do I think they have a long term future? Not really, as I think advances in lithium batteries will eventually take them out. At some point the energy density issues of lithium will be solved as most of the issue stems from such a low percentage of the lithium being active. That said, the Axion batteries do have advantages over CURRENT lithium tech ... great cold weather performance, better inherent safety (no management system), inherent cell levelling (great for swapping bad cells too), charge acceptance (can be done in lithium, but then lose energy density). I don't see this as a viable EV battery due to the low energy density, but then again my comment was in respect to the article and the use of similar technology in start/stop applications where its simplicity can make financial sense. They have not solved the high temp capacity loss issues though which concerns me. However, I NEVER said I picked them as a winner, merely referenced them on tech related to the article. I likely know a lot more about their tech than you do as well. It has its pluses an minuses and as engineers, we need to be objective, not emotional.
With your knowledge in composites, how expesive will this vehicle be? You do not need to convince me it will be stronger than steel. I am a firm believer in the technology. But, given the billions out there to invest in commercially viable electric cars ... and not just by the current automotive suppliers, why is no one building it? Creating a commercial car ... meeting all required standards, is not a cake walk. I still don't see your 600lb shell (including wheels, body, AC, entertainment, crash zones, air bags, side impact protection, brakes, etc.) is going to support 600lbs of batteries, 500lbs of people, 100lbs of luggage, and meet safety/crash requirements without truly exotic (read expensive) construction. Are you telling me you have such a 600lbs empty car today? .... that is what you are implying.
Telling me my post is not based on facts but opinions and then promoting your your own opinions is not constructive. The fact you buy commercal grade packs for 400/KWH DOES NOT mean that automotive grade packs are $250. That is just supposition and guess what, today it is wrong. I am sorry that every analyst on the planet disagrees with you, but they do. You saying it is so does not make it so. I am sure we will get there, but we are not today and I don't expect we will be in 2014 either (and many many people who know infinitely more about the technology and business than either of us agree with me).
Similarly, there is no commercial 600lb (empty) two seater car that supports 600lbs of batteries and passes safety and is commercially viable in the automotive industry. If you can do it, then I wish you success (in all honesty) and better that you hob nob with billion dollar investors than post here.
I am sorry that you feel you are beyond question w.r.t. to this subject, but your post is at odds with many experts in the field and to that end, I do not think questioning your post is unreasonable. To your point, we don't need any more misinformation on the topic.
Your post isn't based on facts but your opinion. Vs mine based on what I actually can buy. There are multiple 100-200amphr Lithium cells available for EV use at $400kwhr and now with great QC. And used in production EV's. Deal with it and stop listening to big auto's price propaganda on batteries, EV's.
Please with your great expertise tell me why lithium batteries cost so much? Enquiring minds want to know?
Again your opinion on light vehicle safety is faulty. I own such a vehicle that weighs that when done and 2x's as a strong as steel version. And I can produce them at lower cost than in steel. F-1 has validated the tech I use similar to that by Ferrari, Mc Laren and the other wolds most expensive sportscars, just not with overhyped CF.
You can make sealed flooded batteries at no more than regular ones. Please tell me the cost difference reason? Enquiring minds want to know?
You have no idea of how to run a lead battery, not charging it up to 103% will cause it to die. In fact no battery should be run as you said as just wasteful.
Facts are you nor no one knows how many cycles lithiums in EV service will last, No?
Axion is an overpriced scam offering nothing lithium won't at less cost, weight. You sure know how to pick losers.
I can go on but please try to actually know what you are talking about if you are going to post or ask. We don't need more misinformation like you post.
Maybe you should have taken a hint that as driving, building and designing EV's for 15 yrs and composites for 45 yrs I might know a tad more than you.
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