Even at $25K per Volt (you didn't really mean $25, did you) it's obscene that the general public has to foot the bill for a product that would not succeed on its own. It is certainly not succeeding even with subsidies, whether they be $25K per, $250K per, or somewhere in between.
Businesses don't work that way. Well, real businesses, not UAW welfare programs anyway.
rickman, your analysis is good. On the other hand, you leave out one other consideration. New gasoline powered compact cars are much cheaper to purchase still, and get very good gas mileage. Their TCO, even with much higher gas prices, is what puts the Volt and Prius out of reach. Another interesting phenomemom in this market is the used car. Even a used car with modest gas mileage is cheaper to own. Driven by Toyota, all car companies have improved their vehicle quality so that these used cars are a reasonable alternative. As a result, used car prices are through the roof. Frankly, mileage figures for new cars are not much better that they were ten years ago. Do your analysis on a good used car with half the mileage of a new gasoline powered compact and you get better TCO.
It is interesting to note that the existence of different types of technology for transportation has spurred people to do these TCO analyses for their vehicles. This would not have been the case ten years ago.
The problem with electric or hybrid cars is the henn-and-egg problem. Volume in sales helps to drop prices, maturing battery technology helps to reduce prices and volume, and weight in those cars. So applying the standard quadrant method of the market. Only early adopters will purchase electric or hybrid cars today. Once prices and technology have matured you will have the early mayority jump onto the waggon.
Recent studies her ein Germany have shown that, of electricaöl energy is not produced by clean sources the CO2 balance for electrical cars is not as good as that of a modern combustion engine.
So have the early adopters and their experience with those cars help to improve technology at the manufacturers side.
Extraction costs really don't matter that much. Middle East oil, which costs very little to extract, costs just as much. Sure, there is a greater profit, but that goes to national governments. These typically don't spend it very efficiently.
The oil extracted here would provide more profits here and royalties paid here. From a national economy point of view, this is useful.
The other thing to remember, though, is that gasoline powered vehicles are still cheaper to own than the alternative. There have been many articles in Design News and other publications discussing this. Even in Europe, where gas was at $4 per gallon ten years ago, when I lived there, the vast majority of vehicles are gasoline or diesel powered. The price of gasoline is significantly more there now.
Until the battery issue is solved, electric and hybrid vehicles will be more expensive to own. The interesting thing is that these are all smaller, or perhaps, mid-sized cars. At least in most of the US, this is a small segment of the market. We have also not really seen the end-of-life costs of these vehicles. What happens to the batteries when they are retired?
@Arden -- As confirmed by Kiplinger, the Volt comes within $1,000 of a Cruze after 5 years. Not 20 years. That's without adding leather or other options that increase the Cruze price to better match a comparable Volt.
Actually, the Volt works well for my family. We have a 25 year-old daughter, and she and her 6-foot fiance regularly sit very comfortbably in the back seat of my Volt. And, actually, the 'trunk' is quite large since the Volt is a hatchback. In fact, when we need to move larger items, we use my Volt instead of my wife's Fusion or daughter's Camry.
You're right about the 'fire' non-issue. It's too bad that so much negative press was made out of such a non-issue, because it will probably cause people ot avoid the Volt.
Wrong. The US is running out of cheap oil. Whats left is expensive to extract. Lots of oil in ND and Colorado but extraction costs are $60-80 a barrell. Politicians are not preventing extraction except on teh coast of California.
I agree that price is the problem. I'm always looking to save money but alternatives such as hybrids and electric will save me gas but not money. Usually my analysis tells me what I'll save in gas I'll spend on higher payments.
I think area utility prices have a lot to do in the decision as well. For the person who did the spreadsheet where VOLT pays off in 5 years I'm guessing you have a good electric rate. GM advertises $1.50 per day charge based on 12 cents per kwh. Here in NY, thanks to the corruption and graft, I pay 25 cents per kwh. Only another $1.50 per day, but it still makes a difference.
Diesel cars and domestic natural gas powered cars are the answer.
New versions of BASF's Ecovio line are both compostable and designed for either injection molding or thermoforming. These combinations are becoming more common for the single-use bioplastics used in food service and food packaging applications, but are still not widely available.
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