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Garcol
User Rank
Iron
Re: So which is the cause and which is the effect?
Garcol   2/14/2012 10:52:56 PM
NO RATINGS
Conservative estimates (of anthropologists) would put man's extent at no more than 2 Million years to present. Dinosaurs quite surpassed humans in their geological history which extends through hundreds of millions of years.

Of course, you can get off the boat wherever you'd like and go with the creationists who place man's existence as contemporaneous with the dinosaurs. That's about the same 'scientific' logic as equating extensive climate alterations due to the exponential effects of only very few degrees of global climate change with the evil machinations of "climate scientists" and the "green empire of world control"!!!

The very simple relation of who actually profits from "climate warming is no big deal" is quite obvious --- ExxonMobil, Cabot O&G, Shell, etc, Halliburton, Schlumberger, and their lapdogs - the WSJ, FOX news, CNN, and most of the MSM. No big deal = Continue to generate income and pad their accounts...

On the other hand, dinosauers are pretty good with frankenfurters.

William K.
User Rank
Platinum
So which is the cause and which is the effect?
William K.   2/14/2012 10:04:53 PM
NO RATINGS
Aside from the changes in solar activity, which it does increase and decrese, what about the likelyhood that there are other cycles with a much longer period?

For that matter, do you really believe that the world would otherwise just go on the same for ever? Some folks point to evidence showing that at one time we had an ice age, and then things warmed up. Then in the sixties the predictions were for the next ice age. It must have slipped right by me. My point being that the climate change is a lot like the sun setting and the tide rising, in that it is going to happen, and so we need to figure out how to live with it.

I will probably survive, but others here may not. Learn from the dinosauers before it is too late.

Garcol
User Rank
Iron
Wearing furs 50 years ago...!
Garcol   2/14/2012 9:14:29 PM
NO RATINGS
Wow. Nylon became commercially feasible in 1935 - 77 years ago! Watch teletubbies much?

Garcol
User Rank
Iron
Re: What are the facts?
Garcol   2/14/2012 9:08:08 PM
NO RATINGS
If your calculations are meaningful, the exact chemical description needs to be meaningful, as well. 3 or 4 drops of LSD25 or botulism could kill or seriously debillitate anyone entering that olympic pool.

Glenn Tamblyn
User Rank
Silver
Re: What are the facts?
Glenn Tamblyn   2/14/2012 5:43:06 PM
Island_Al

 

'First show me the Science'.

 

They have. It is in thousands and thousands of scientific papers in many journals covering research going back 1/2 a century. And ExaBytes of observational data. They have shown you the science. But you haven't read it yet.

 

Or are you suggesting that the worlds scientists should come to your home to give you a personal briefing on it?

Glenn Tamblyn
User Rank
Silver
Re: What are the facts?
Glenn Tamblyn   2/14/2012 5:33:45 PM
"Undeniably the one and only source of global warming is the sun, not man.  The sun is producing an upsurge in solar flares putting out more heat some of which hits the earth."

 

Over the last 1/2 century solar activity has declined very slightly at the same time that temperatures have been rising. So its not the sun causing it. Inconvenient thing ain't it. A nice speculation about alternative theories shot down by inconvenient data.


Glenn Tamblyn
User Rank
Silver
Re: Global Warm
Glenn Tamblyn   2/14/2012 5:28:44 PM
litdoc.

Done. All though you have a bit of reading ahead of you. Start with the IPCC's last report - AR4. Read the working group 1 section, the physical science basis. Then read the thousands of scientific papers cited in support of this across many different branches of science - Physics, Thermodynamics, Radiation Heat Transfer theory. Oceanography, Ocean Chemistry, cloud science, geochemistry, hydrology, paleoclimatology.... Then start following the citation links in all those papers to earlier papers containing more of the earlier research. After reading thousands of scientific papers stretching back to the 1950's, with a handful from pioneers before WWII you will a grasp of the scientific basis for it.

 

Then to look at data you can use the Data Sources page at RealClimate.org to link to all the main repositories of data amassed Exa Bytes of it - spectroscopic data, satellite observations of everything imaginable, radiosonde data, sea surface temperatures, GH gas concentrations, Solar activity, aerosol ovservations, Soil moisture data, ocean temperature, density, salinity, Ph, Carbonate concentrations, ocean current speeds,, recently satellite gravity measurements of mass changes, cloud height & composition, paleo climate data - sediment cores, ice cores, diverse isotope ratio studies, geological and geochemical data and .....

 

We await you analysis.

Glenn Tamblyn
User Rank
Silver
Re: Can Weatherperson Predict Beyond 10 Days? What about a Climate Scientist?
Glenn Tamblyn   2/14/2012 5:14:21 PM
"Bottom line, I'll have more confidence when my local Weatherperson can predict daily temperatures a year in advance and be more than 3 sigma accurate. I'm expected to be within 3 sigma in my calculations / tests / and predictions in my job. Heck, just to give them the benefit of doubt, make it very simple and only predict the daily temperatures 2 weeks in advance and be within 2 sigma accurate."

 

Sorry but this is very faulty reasoning. I'll give you an analogy. My swimming pool's water level is low so I throw a hose in and start adding water.I know that it will take hours to fill but I'm not sure exactly  because I can't measure the flow rate in the hose that accurately. But certainly some hours. Now you are suggesting that if I watch one single point in the pool and look at the instantaneous level changes, while my family are busy using the pool, making waves, if I can't predict exactly what that spot will be like 33 seconds from now, I can't possibly predict what the water level will be like hours from now. You are trying to judge how well we can prdict the signal ased on how well we can predict the noise.


Glenn Tamblyn
User Rank
Silver
Re: The Cloud Effect
Glenn Tamblyn   2/14/2012 5:04:16 PM
Sport.

 

If you read back through some of my earlier comments you will see that warming is continuing unabated. The oceans are accumulating heat pretty much unchecked at a rate of multiple Hiroshima Bombs per second. Its just that over the last decade circulation patterns in the ocean have changed a bit and more heat is being drawn down to greater depths so the surface isn't warming much so the atmosphere isn't warming much.

" volcanic activity, the sun, and many other "natural" influences are discounted" No they are not. They have all been looked at and their impacts assessed. And apart from the occasional very large eruption such as Mt Pinatubo in 1992, their effects are observed to be small.

 

Since we are past the peak of the last Inter-Glacial we should if anything be in a very slow cooling trend, which is what the last 8000 years have been doing. The Orbital changes that trigger Ice Ages are well understood and the expected next Ice Age would have a very slow gentle but cooling start. Instead we are seeing warming.


WhEEngineer
User Rank
Gold
Re: What are the facts?
WhEEngineer   2/14/2012 4:50:27 PM
Science SHOULD be about facts, but the GW is about false data and conclucions made then data fabricated to support that end.  The vastness of the earth's climate has just been scratched by man's questioning and we haven't been around that long in Earth time.

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