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Charles Murray
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Re: Alrighty then
Charles Murray   2/6/2012 5:12:28 PM
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jeffbiss: Do you agree with the newspaper article statement that those who don't agree should be "laughed at and scorned?" Or do you think that's taking it too far?

jeffbiss
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Gold
Alrighty then
jeffbiss   2/6/2012 5:09:44 PM
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Charles,

Thanks for that bio. My problem is still that he alleged without citing support. If there's a big problem with the discussion of global warming, it's making unsubstantiated statements. In my opinion, "skeptics" simply muddy the discussion when they provide no backup, and that adds to the rampant ignorance in America. In fact that ignorance is celebrated in certain segments of our population, and that's a big problem. We can do far better.

j-allen
User Rank
Platinum
Re: A Global-Warming Sketpic
j-allen   2/6/2012 5:04:12 PM
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When I served on the Fire and Rescue Squad, we occasionally got a false alarm.  Still, when the alarm rang, we responded.  most alarms are real and we could not afford to ignore one.

In the case of stratospheric ozone, we did respond and cut back on Freons along with other ozone-eating chemicals.   Of course there is still a "hole" since it takes nature a long time to repair the initial damage. 

Rational peopls look at each alleged problem on the basis of its evicence, not on gut feelings or anger because of some possibly erroneous alert in the past.

Also consider cases where an alarm causes a response that averts the disaster.  does that mean the alarm was false?

jeffbiss
User Rank
Gold
Re: Solar activty
jeffbiss   2/6/2012 5:04:08 PM
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sensor pro,

For a discussion of how solar activity plays in climate, see www.realclimate.org. Search that site for a number of stories/threads. Also, see Stanford's Solar Center site. They state that "Their bottom line: though the Sun may play some small role, "it is nevertheless much smaller than the estimated radiative forcing due to anthropogenic changes." That is, human activities are the primary factor in global climate change.

Charles Murray
User Rank
Blogger
Re: Citations?
Charles Murray   2/6/2012 5:02:44 PM
jeffbiss: Jon Titus is indeed a Ph.D. Please note that Jon's original Mark-8 computer is on display at the Smithsonian Institution. See his background below:

Jon Titus holds three college degrees, a BS from Worcester Polytechnic Institute, an MS from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, and PhD from Virginia Polytechnic Institute. He is credited by many people as being the inventor of the first personal computer kit, the Mark-8, which was featured as a construction project on the cover of Radio Electronics magazine in July, 1974. The computer used an Intel 8008 microprocessor chip -- the first 8-bit microprocessor -- and the kit was meant for use by serious electronics hobbyists and experimenters. Jon's original Mark-8 is now in the collection at the Smithsonian Institution. In 2002, Jon received a George R. Stibitz Computer & Communications Pioneer Award from the American Computer Museum in Bozeman, MT, for his development of the Mark-8 hobbyist computer kit.

roddalitz
User Rank
Gold
Re: Off on a tangent
roddalitz   2/6/2012 4:43:18 PM
"what makes a scientific discussion become overwhelmed by politics."  

 

I would say, when some people have a high investment in the issue, mainly money. The best parallel must be tobacco versus lung disease.  It seems clear that the tobacco companies put a lot of money into politicising that one.

 

Removing lead from gasoline was much esier, no-ones livlihood was threatened, just a minor additive and some engine re-design. Electric cars are more likely to be politicised.

Watashi
User Rank
Platinum
Re: volcano emissions
Watashi   2/6/2012 4:38:51 PM
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Interesting piece - although the gratuitous mention of anthropogenic emissions and CFCs makes me question the objectivity of the researchers.

Cassiopeia
User Rank
Silver
Re: Off on a tangent
Cassiopeia   2/6/2012 4:20:45 PM

naperlau

I was only taught one type of science, the Popperian refutable variety. AGW science doesn't only depend on well-established physical principles but it can also predict approximate outcomes (and can therefore be refuted). 

I guess most people believe global warming was 'discovered' in the 70s or 80s, some people even think it is something to do with Al Gore!!   Of course nothing could be more ludicrous.

As far back as 1827 Jean-Baptiste Fourier first suggested that greenhouse gases kept the earth warmer, which was confirmed by John Tyndall and Svante Arrhenius later on that century. In 1938 an Engineer, Guy Stewart Callendar predicted that doubling the concentration of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning would lead to a global increase of 2°C, with the poles warming more. This was a remarkable prophesy, since it is on course to what we observe today! Calendar's predictions were later confirmed by several more detailed studies in the 1970s, including an elite group of ex-military physicist's dubbed the 'Jason's'. This was well before modern climate science, supercomputers and the IPCC. (PS at this point I would recommend you don't push 'ice age prediction' myths).

Now it's true climate science doesn't predict outcomes to the umpteenth decimal point as in highly controlled experiments.  It is more analogous to predicting the temperature of the following summer 6 months earlier.  Hence we can be reasonably sure it will be warmer in summer not only because of experience, but because of well- understood physical phenomena. What else would you expect if the solar insolation is so much higher. However, because of the complex motion of the atmosphere and oceans it is still quite a challenge to predict with accuracy how much.  Hence, no-one would ever seriously contend that summer would be no warmer than winter (across the US for example) yet that is precisely what the so called 'sceptics' try and convince us!  To them a 'warmer summer' is just a theory!

jeffbiss
User Rank
Gold
search for solar activity research
jeffbiss   2/6/2012 4:08:39 PM
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William K.,

Check out Stanford's Solar Center.

jeffbiss
User Rank
Gold
No insult
jeffbiss   2/6/2012 4:03:58 PM
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jpratch,

Calling out Jon for not doing due diligence before posting is not insulting him. He made a series of unsupported allegations. Where're his citations? If there's a problem with climate science, it appears to be in the "skeptic" community.

If there's a "follow the money" lesson, it's that the corporate interests have far more of than the academic community, as there was with regards to the connection between smoking and cance, for example from the fossil fuel industry. If there is any agenda pushing global warming, it is from Wall Street, not the scientists. Their research is open for all to see and verify.

Heck, he can get involved directly in the science. You too can help the discussion by posting valid scientific research that supports your "skepticism".

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