It's interesting to look back at this article in light of Tesla's recent "gigafactory" announcement. If the lithium-ion market does continue to grow, then Tesla will have a place to sell their batteries if EV sales are slow.
Most subsidies of oil, coal are socialized in our taxes, healthcare we pay.
For instance why are we in the Perian Gulf? To protect international oil companies for free, No? Then why if not? That and the oil wars comes to $400B/yr or almost enough to balance the national budget next yr!!! That mean YOU ARE PAYING ABOUT 20% more in INCOME TAXES. Feeling better?
As a fiscal conservative I believe those who make the mess needs to pay for it. So put the full cost in oil in it as it should and it would already be $200/bbl. Repub say they want tax cuts and balance the budget then why are they subsizing big oil this much?
Coal kills 10k/yr and hospitalizes 150k/yr in the US among the many other land, water, air, buildings, etc destruction mining and burning it does every day. That too is in your taxes especially the insurance, medicaid/care and SSI ones. I guess you like paying these?
And this doesn't even include CO2 socialized costs.
So just who is subsidizing who? Should we be doing such massive coroprate welfare that has stiffled innovation and cause 5 of the last 6 recessions? And just what is the cost of an oi rlecession? How many more will we go though before we wise up to the real costs of oil, coal.
Or do you like paying much higher taxes to give to coroprations? I don't.
Politics are why we are in this mess. Had repubs mostly not favored oil, coal all these yrs we would have lots of energy, choices, jobs, just we'd be making it in our homes, buildings mostly, at least the smart ones will and many already do.
For instanct the average US 100x100' home lot gets 5mwhrs of sun/day average. I can live on that or a wind gen or biomass or best, a combo of them.
Excellent report on battery research. It's surprising to see how the various sectors stack up. And it's clear that both battery technology, in general, and lithium-ion in particular are going to see much more increased use. Still an area where innovation is likely to tip the scales and affect technology usage.
GTOlover, I was conservative with that estimate on purpose (a science and reporter habit), and wondered what others would say. I wasn't even thinking about power tools; more like phones, tablet PCs, etc. If we add power tools, my estimate is way too low.
My point was that in order to be really competitive with the IC engine and gasoline or diesel the oil price has to really rise, which it will not in the next decade. There is plenty of oil to be extracted as the price stays around $100.00. In the 90's I was working in another country on developing new wells, and the economic decision at the time was $10.00 even though the market then was in the $40's. A barrel is 42 gallons, so we are paying ~$2.40 a gallon for crude currently. I just don't see battery capacity rising fast enough, cheap enough to displace fuels in practicality or range. Other than Tesla there isn't an ev out there that can go around 100 mi. on a charge. In order to really displace fuel the ev must be capable of 400-500 mi. and be recharged in a few minutes. The price has to come down substantially.
Nice reply. Although I disagree that we will ever see $10ppb crude, I do believe that demand will decrease considerably as we enter the true era of the EV. You see, cheap easily accessible oil is pretty much depleted and what is left will be more expensive to extract or process - even in the case of shale. Fracking helps but it's still expensive and very controversial.
In short, oil will probably remain expensive and primarily used in the manufacturing of real "physical stuff". Demand for this physical stuff (with either oil in it or used to make it) will remain strong as emerging economies mature. This is a more rational use for oil anyhow.
As for the combustible engine for the masses, its peak is probably past. The era of the EV is here and chances are that in about 5-10 years we will be wondering why it took so long. For comparitive purposes, the EV is probaly where PC's were in the mid 90's.
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