Automotive driver assistance is poised to be a hot growth area over the next six years, and it's going to take the microcontroller market right along with it, a study from IMS Research says.
The study, "The World Market for Semiconductors in OEM Automotive Electronic Systems," predicts that accident avoidance features such as blind spot detection, rear obstacle detection, adaptive cruise control, collision avoidance, parking assistance, and lanekeeping will require 32-bit microcontrollers (MCUs). As a result, the market for MCUs and digital signal processors (DSPs) for such applications will grow from $70 million in 2011 to $150 million in 2018.
Though the market for driver assistance MCUs will be smaller than the powertrain market, it is expected to grow far faster over the next six years. (Source: IMS Research)
Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) "is a new market, and automakers are going to want it because they see it as a differentiator," Ben Scott, market analyst for IMS Research, told us. "That need for differentiation will drive the growth of this market."
The study predicts that parking assistance and backup cameras will be the two most popular ADAS applications, with 60 percent of vehicles having one or both by 2018. Approximately 10 percent of vehicles will incorporate blind spot detection, collision mitigation, and lane departure warning systems by that time, Scott said. Other ADAS features will include driver drowsiness warnings, adaptive headlights, and vehicle-to-vehicle communications.
Most of those systems will employ 32-bit MCUs around vehicles, collocating them with ultrasound, radar, and other types of sensors that look at the area surrounding the car. The MCUs will process information and, in many cases, send the data to sensor fusion modules, which will use additional MCUs to compare data from other sensors. As a result, high-end vehicles could use more than a half-dozen extra MCUs to help drivers. "It will start in the premium vehicles and trickle its way down from there," Scott said.
Other automotive MCU markets will continue to dwarf the $150 million ADAS MCU market. Scott said that the market for automotive instrumentation MCUs will be about $600 million in 2018. The powertrain market will be $800 million, and the infotainment market will hit approximately $1.8 billion. Still, driver assistance is growing faster than the others, with an annual growth rate of about 12 percent, compared with about 7 percent for the powertrain market, Scott said.
Most of the major automotive semiconductor makers already have 32-bit products targeted at driver assistance. Freescale Semiconductor offers 32-bit Qorivva MCUs for blind spot detection, lane departure warning, side view assistance, and adaptive headlights, as well for high-resolution video compression over fast Ethernet. Infineon Technologies markets Aurix MCUs for lanekeeping and parking assistance. Texas Instruments has introduced its Hercules TMS570 MCUs for safety-critical automotive applications, and its C6000 DSPs enable automakers to support ADAS features with a single processor.
Scott said that about half the ADAS controllers will employ multiple cores by 2018. A multicore setup will provide more processing at lower power, with the added benefit of redundancy. "There's been talk of 64-bit devices, but that will be farther out in the future. In the meantime, 32-bit multicore will definitely be the way forward."
There's no doubt that driver aid features like back-up cams and some of the newer innovations are in hot demand. But just because you provide a technological advantage doesn't mean the driver will take advantage of the capability and benefit from assistance or safety. I'm a perfect example: A back-up camera on my car didn't stop me from having a minor fender bender recently. And the other party had the nerve to cite my back-up cam as a reason why the accident shouldn't have happened in the first place. Really??? Human error will persist
It is amazing how many microprocessors there are in cars these days. I was talking to an engineer and he pointed out that in many cases, instead of using a centralized processor and a sensor that a unit would be built with its own processor. One seemingly simple example of this is the temperature sensor. These generally have a small MCU to report the temperature. The reason is tied into how the automotive industry works. The automakers design the car and work with suppliers who provide the parts. This is great for the MCU industry.
As for the sensors that you don't use, I have seen that in many situations. I think it was in this site that there have been articles about the automated highway. There was a comment in one about how the automated vehicles actually stopped at the stop sign (a pet peeve of mine). I have been in cars where the vehicle gave the operator mutliple ques about what was happening. The drivers often become used to ignoring them. Sort of like Beth, come to think of it.
@Naperlou: Multiple cues from the car--well, that's harder to ignore than a back-up cam that always makes things appear further away than they actually are. Ok, that's my excuse!
Beth: I suspect, but cannot prove, that auto engineers see a lot of these features as pieces of the autonomous vehicle puzzle. So you might never use them, but the autonomous vehicle will use them. Lanekeeping and collision avoidance, for example, might one day just take over for you, whether you want them to or not.
That makes sense. Laying the groundwork now and refining the designs as they become a standard part of the car's BOM. I imagine what we see now in terms of driver aid systems will be nothing compared to what we see in the future.
Keep in mind that some of these MCU's are replacing older Analog, Electromechanical, Hydro mechanical or just plain mechanical systems. The mass reduction and simplicity of applying the MCU's makes them ideal. Yea sure Cert time is a little tough but some of these MCU's add cost saving. Other options like collision avoidance etc. are added at the buyers' expense however they are there mostly for brownie points from the car manufacturer. This is what competition does. They add all these features at a few pennies to the dollar and it's all done to lure average Joe to purchase their car instead of the competitors. I personaly still ignore all the background noise and look at the amount of money it takes to buy and maintain a car.
I remember just a few years ago, analysts were amazed that electronics made up about 10 percent of a car's total cost, an estimate of about $2,000. By 2018, it sounds like that figure will have grown considerably in the percentage of a car's cost as well as total amount.
If the car is safer, and if the car lasts longer, these costs will be worthwhile. Only time will tell whether the added costs pay off in value.
Good point Rob. Are there any stats on what the new devices will add to the car's total cost?
To Beth and naperlou's point, how often will these extras be used? If they're offered as an option and too pricey, consumers may choose to opt out. Turn signlas and seat belts are mandatory, back-up cameras and parking sensors are not.
I still lament the loss of actual driving skills but I learned to drive in San Francisco in a '68 Mustang.
Nadine, I think it's safe to say that the costs will be absorbed by virtually all automotive consumers, because many of these features will be offered in bundles, whether you ask for them or not. Breaking out the cost of a single feature is unfortunately difficult.
You're right, Rob. If we had to pay for them individually, not many people would get these features. It's too many permutations, though, so automakers would never do that. regarding Bullitt: Yes, it was a Mustang. And a Dodge Charger, I believe.
Hmm. I spelled Bullitt wrong, Chuck. I looked it up and it's the Steve McQueen character name. Apparently, Ford came out with a Mustang Bullitt on the 40th anniversary of the film.
It's cool that Ford came out with a 40th anniversary Mustang Bullitt. But I have to admit, my kids laugh at that chase seen because, by comparison to today's movies, it seems so crude. I still watch it when it comes on TV, though.
I'm with you Chuck. Bullitt was the best chase scene until the French Connection with Gene Hackman. I think the French Connection equaled Bullitt (but didn't surpass it).
Too many movies now begin with a chase scene and the whole movie is a chase scene. And it's all computer animated It takes the life out of it.
Yes, Chuck, my son has been bugging me to see Drive, saying it's a good movie. I'm always open minded to new chase scenes, but there is something so analog beautiful about Bullitt and French Connection.
40%! Wow. That's quite a figure, especially since it wasn't long ago that the percentage of elecronics was half that. Again, though, if the additional electronics make the car safer and make it last longer, that's a huge consideration.
Chuck, Excellent story. It's amazing to me how quickly driver assist seems to developing as a feature set. Certainly all of the compute power is readily available to make it happen. Thanks.
Thanks, Al. Yes, driver assist features seem to have come out of nowhere. Some of them have been worked on for about a decade, but once they make it to production, it moves fast. In contrast, electronic stability control was in production for almost 15 years when it really took off.
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