Slow, steady improvement in battery technology over several decades has brought the world to the cusp of a tipping point that will increase the adoption of electric vehicles and could help curb civilization's reliance on fossil fuels, according to JB Straubel, chief technology officer and co-founder of Tesla Motors Inc.
Delivering a keynote address at the DESIGN West event in San Jose, Calif., this week, Straubel said that even though critics often point out that there is no equivalent to Moore's Law in terms of battery technology improvement, battery technology has slowly improved over many decades, resulting in an average annual improvement of 7 percent to 8 percent in energy density.
Tesla, which is often knocked for the price tag on its original Roadster, above, continues to refine its technology and drive down the cost of the batteries, according to CTO and co-founder JB Straubel. (Source: Tesla)
Straubel said battery technology has improved to the point that EVs can offer a driving range of 200 miles or more under normal conditions on a full charge. And they will continue to offer higher ranges, better performance, and potentially lower costs. "Cost is still the most important challenge for batteries."
Tesla was founded in 2003 to help drive the world toward sustainable transportation, he said. Transportation is currently driven almost entirely by fossil fuels. In the US, 96 percent of all transportation is driven by petroleum. "We cannot keep doing that for decades to come. Certainly not centuries."
Future generations are likely to wonder why so much of the world's finite supply of petroleum was squandered on relatively short car rides, which could be replaced relatively easily with electric vehicles, Straubel said. In the US, about half of petroleum use comes from people who commute 20 to 50 miles a day. Such trips are easily within the range of EVs from Tesla and others, and the petroleum saved could be used for longer trips and especially for things like airplane flights.
I agree that currently 90% of our electrical energy is created by fossile fuels. However, electric motors are vastly superior in efficency to internal combustion engines. Gas engines get around a maximum of 20-35% efficiency where as electric motors are closer to 80-95%. You also can recoop some of the energy when braking with an electric vehicle, not so with one that is powered by gas. When you look at equivalents there is data that supports that you produce half as much CO2 with a hybrid or electric car compared to a gas car. Also, if we can continue to promote cleaner energy production (natural gas, wind, hydro, solar etc.) this enviromental impact will continue to go down. Something has to be done as we continue to increase the number of vehicles on the roads and potential drivers (china, india, etc.) we can not contiue to burn gas. Starting now means you have a chance to start to curb the trend toward electric vehicles. Most cars have a life expedancy of 10-15 years, so what you buy today will impact the environment for the life of that vehicle. If we want to change things 20 years from now, you have to start changing things in the next 5 years.
Also, when looking at enironmental impact you have to look at the cost to build the vehicle and batteries. Right now the impact of building a battery can be very costly, not only in $$ but also in environmental impact. There are new batteries being worked on (aluminum based) that have 2-3 times the density of lithium ion ones, but they years away right now. Also, the hope is that the new batteries will be less expensive and more environmentally friendly.
We switched from walking to horses - why? Faster, easier, get more done, etc.
We switched from horses to autos - why? Faster, easier, get more done, less polution on the ground (horse manure) in cities, etc.
Now we are trying to switch from gas cars to electric cars - why? Get rid of concentrated air polution in cities. ....... There are just not enough whys.
So we have isolated polution reasons. Fossil fuel dependency is not working as a why because we are finding more oil every day - even in the US of A.
We need to find enough whys that justify the extra cost - note that every switch had added costs.
The financial tipping point may be getting close Electric is nice, but how nice?
Over the last 11 months I have logged 11,000 miles on a LEAF with no issues. I installed a 2.7kw PV system ($10k net cost) to power the car. I am on schedule to payoff the PV system in less than 5 years. We have 3 drivers with round trip commutes of 60, 11 and 2 miles. We fight over the LEAF. Next goal is a pure SF Bay solution (Tesla S from Fremont, SunPower PV from Richmond and Enphase from Petaluma). We have great local products that have good ROIs.
Badgerfan: Yes electric motors are very efficient 97-98% compared to ICE, BUT how efficient is the coal fired plant supplying the electricity? We're decades away from wind and solar providing more than about 10-15% of our load. The best steam turbines are only about 40% efficient. Gee, that EV maybe isn't so good after all. Oh, did we talk about transmission and distribution losses in the grid? What you will find is that the old, nasty ICE isn't so bad after all when you look at the big picture.
There are GE H Class turbines for combined braton and rankine cycles that get 60% thermal efficiency and even with the worst coal (with scrubbers), EV's are still better than petro for emissions and there are health benefits to moving the tailpipe out of the city.
While PV might only make 500wthrs/day that is enough for bicycle style E trike to go 20 miles!! It's far better to put the PV on the home roof.
That said I'm about to build a 32' trimaran sailboat to move aboard where I belong but got thinking it would be a great PV powered boat with lots of area, stability and low drag, thus power needs.
On US electric power last month broke the record for lowest coal use, now about 39.7 % of US generation. Fact is coal while more cheap is 35% less eff than NG cogen plants. And the new ones can throttle down to 50% eff thus relieving theb need for grid storage except in rare cases.
Nukes is 20% of US electric with hydro, RE making about 10%. In most places night time when EV's get charged is mostly nuke and hydro.
They just foreced utilities to cut any powrplant that wasn't eff and that cuts out about 50% of them so coal will increasingly be less of our power, down to 20% of US electricity in 10 yrs which is about the time enough EV's to matter will be on the roads
Most EV owners now either make or buy RE power. Ev's are so eff the slight extra cost buying the RE isn't a problem.
Facts on car eff is gas cars only get 7% of the tanks energy moving the car down the road. If you don't understand why you should be commenting here on this. Look up part throttle eff, etc.
Luckily EV's are 20-65% eff depending on energy source from powerplant/RE fuel to the road. The above from EIA, EPA websites among many others who value the real facts. The posts here that have little basis in fact make me think some oil, coal paid flacks are trying to spread their propaganda.
We can stay on oil and keep having oil recessions, wars one after another killing our economy as it did time and time again.
So let's get to costs. As Telsa admitted to their low Li battery costs it's hard to see how other keep[ talking aboyt $700/kwhr vs real life is between $250-400/kwhr pack complete.
Today was my 4th ride in my new Harley Servicecar size EV trike and working out great using under 1 kwhr to go 20 miles, $.11 for fuel, and I haven't started optimizing it yet. This EV will cost me about $120/yr to run for everything, electric, battery, tag my biggest expense so about $2/wk. So go ahead and keep knocking EV's and paying for gas, just remember me smiling as I drive by paying $.005/mile for fuel ;^P
For 3D printing to make the jump from rapid prototyping to manufacturing, engineers will need to find easier ways to move products from their CAD screens to their printers.
Gigabit and PoE are two networking technologies moving ahead in tandem as industrial users power remote Ethernet devices such as IP security cameras at 1,000 Mbps over existing CAT5 cable.
New versions of BASF's Ecovio line are both compostable and designed for either injection molding or thermoforming. These combinations are becoming more common for the single-use bioplastics used in food service and food packaging applications, but are still not widely available.
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