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Matthew Traum

EPRI Endorses Plug-In Hybrids While Auto Manufacturers Slam on the Brakes

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) “will lead to lower overall emissions, even if the electricity that powers them comes from coal;” so says a recent article in Technology Review. This result may be true, if your PHEV is a 2049 model year Toyota Tercel. 

“Plug-In Hybrids: Tailpipes vs. Smokestacks” by David Talbot provides a quick summary of a recently published assessment performed by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) entitled, “Environmental Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles.” Contrary to Tech Review’s hook, the EPRI report indicates that PHEVs of today are MORE polluting (as measured in CO₂ per mile) than conventional hybrids when the PHEC’s battery charge comes from a run-of-the-mill coal-fired power plant. This result isn’t the only awkward aspect of EPRI’s findings. 

Quick disclaimer: The EPRI report was compiled by Dr. Mark S. Duvall and Dr. Eladio M. Knipping. 1,000 years ago, Dr. Knipping was my Teaching Assistant at UC Irvine when I took Thermodynamics. So, I am not allowed to say anything bad about him, or he might retroactively fail me in the class. 

For those people lacking the patience to read this EPRI tome (do not fret, I am one of those people), a press release, “EPRI-NRDC Report Finds Environmental Benefits of Deploying PHEVs,” sums up the findings. 

1. Wide adoption of PHEVs can reduce green house vehicle gas emissions by more than 450 million metric tons annually in 2050. 

2. U.S. electricity generation grid capacity is adequate to accommodate at least a 60 percent market share for PHEVs (and likely higher) in 2050. 

3. PHEVs can improve U.S. air quality and reduce petroleum consumption by up to 4 million barrels per day in 2050. 

Intriguing to me is the selection of the EPRI study’s duration, 2010 – 2050. According to the study’s executive summary, 2050 is the year by which sufficient time will have elapsed for PHEVs to fully penetrate the U.S. vehicle fleet. At the rate technology is progressing, Scotty may be beaming me up to the USS Enterprise by 2050, and primitive land-based vehicles will be museum pieces… On the other hand, perhaps technology will not have progressed far enough to make PHEV’s a reality, even by 2050. 

While EPRI cracks the whip for consumers to run out and buy PHEV’s the moment they roll off the assembly line, the hybrid vehicle technology leader, Toyota, is slamming on the brakes. 

According to a recent Popular Mechanics article entitled, “Toyota, Experts See Plug-in Car Trouble: Electric Reality Check,” PHEV’s still have significant technology and economic hurdles to overcome before being palatable to the masses. One outstanding challenge is battery life. For example, the Popular Mechanics article states, “unless battery life can be improved, plug-in cars might succeed in reducing fuel cost per mile, only to transfer the burden of capital costs of imported batteries to the owner.” 

As I have always said, realistic large-scale alternative energy technology adoption hinges on the promise of money saved. I don’t care how many trees the American consumer wants to hug, no one is going to buy a more expensive product that in turn fails to save them money. Plus, while green may in vogue today, who is to say what the American consumer will want in 2050? Maybe the winning 2048 presidential campaign slogan will be “America needs more pollution!” 

I’m sure EPRI used the best predictive techniques and science available for their study while providing a realistic range of estimates for many possible future scenarios. However, if their 42-year forward-looking projections truly pan out, then I need to fire my stock broker and hire my friend Dr. Knipping to pick a stock portfolio for my retirement.