The Economics Of Buying A Hybrid
If you’re wondering whether it’s finally time to buy a hybrid vehicle, then you’re not alone. J.D. Power & Associates, the market research company, recently published results of a survey showing that 72% of consumers say they are “definitely/probably” interested in having hybrid-electric technology in their next new vehicle. Understandably, that figure was up from 58% in 2005, when a similar study was last conducted.
Given the rising price of gasoline, that’s a natural response. Most consumers figure they can save a lot of money by buying a vehicle that gets better gas mileage.
The problem is, though, it’s still not clear that you’ll come out ahead by buying a hybrid. By most accounts, the majority of hybrids are good vehicles: strong acceleration; quiet ride; dependable, too. But if your sole reason for looking at a hybrid is lower cost, then you better sharpen your pencil and prepare to do battle with the numbers.
Two years ago, Consumer Reports published its own study, titled “The Dollars and Cents of Hybrid Cars,” which compared costs for seven hybrid models. The study showed amazing foresight by basing its findings on a mathematical model that assumed the price of gasoline would gradually rise over five years to almost $6 a gallon. Using the model, gasoline averaged out to about $3.66 a gallon for the entire five-year period.
And the results? Four of the seven hybrids did better than their all-gasoline-burning counterparts when it came to cost of ownership. The Ford Escape Hybrid beat the conventional Ford Escape XLT; the Toyota Camry Hybrid beat the conventional Camry LE; the Toyota Prius knocked off the Corolla; and the Honda Civic Hybrid nipped (a difference of $101) the Civic EX.
If the story ended there, the picture would be clear and simple. Once again, though, the outlook cloudied in 2007 as federal subsidies began to go away. You see, all of the cost of ownership comparisons quoted above were based on the existence of a generous tax credit for people who bought hybrids. Take the tax credit away, and suddenly six of the seven hybrid vehicles mentioned above had worse costs of ownership then their conventional counterparts.
While all of this may be confusing to prospective car buyers, there’s a strong message amid its murkiness: Now, you need to look at the vehicles on a case-by-case basis, considering such matters as vehicle features, federal tax subsidies, and the price of gasoline. No longer can we make the blanket statement that you buy a hybrid for the good of the environment, not for the good of your pocketbook.
What’s more, if you’re an engineer (as are all of our 180,000 readers), there’s another factor to consider. Although there are no surveys to back this statement, I’m willing to bet that a majority of engineers take good care of their cars and keep them well past the 100,000-mile mark. And that’s important when considering hybrid vehicle economics because surveys such as Consumer Reports’ are based on 75,000 miles of operating costs. Keep your vehicle a little longer than that and you may be able to whittle away at the $5,000 initial premium that you pay for hybrid technology.
The bottom line is that the dollars and cents of hybrids are no longer simple. The scales are tipping. Finally, people who are considering hybrids may have good economic reasons for doing so.
Michael Poremba commented:
Charles, economics must become secondary to the ecological choices that we make. Looking at cost alone is a narrow-minded perspective we must learn to grow beyond as a society. Greenhouse gas emissions, other pollutants, and dependence on finite natural resources are very important issues we must all grapple with. These problems will not solved for us by governments and manufacturers. We fell asleep at the wheel, thinking only as consumers of goods rather than participating in an ecology. The days of narrowly focusing on economics alone are over. The next generation has moved on from there.
Consider the following ecological perspectives:
dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpowsour.2005.11.086
geekswithblogs.net/gaijin42/archive/2006/07/11/are_hybrids_really_green_true_cost_hybrid_TCO_utility_society_break_even.aspx
Kevin commented:
I don’t want to de-rail the topic of the hybrids, but just to clarify a couple of things with that 94 cavalier. I admit the mileage driven is at least 85% highway, and I am now consciously trying to maximize my mileage. So my number of 41.9, while accurate, is not what you would expect driving the car "normal". I do perform all of the mechanical work on the vehicle myself (except alignments).
Tim commented:
And yes, the days of the narrowly focused gas-mileage-as-the-metric days are also gone. One needs to examine the entire environmental cost of the vehicle. This includes not only the fuel burned to drive it, but the fuel used and pollution generated to manufacture it as well as the environmental impact of its end-of-life scrapping. The benefit of the hybrid is not so cut-and-dried when you look at the entire energy/pollution cost of the vehicle. Additionally, if your driving is primarily freeway, you'll be much better off to get a small engine car that doesn't carry the weight of the batteries and electric motor for a mode in which they don't come into play. As always, things are more complicated than one simple metric.
degolier commented:
The cavalier owner raises a good point about the hybrids, how to maintenance costs compare? And what of the environmental impact of tons of batteries that will be scrapped with the car. But your car specs are fishy. A 1994 Cavalier was rated at 25/36. If you are milking a combined 41 out of it after 14 years you're such a good driver/mechanic you might never have to refill the tank on your hybrid!
Jon Allen commented:
I've been driving hybrids as a ZipCar member for many years, and 3 years back, I bought a Civic Hybrid. It has been the most luxurious car I've ever owned, as well as the most comforting on a 20 mile, stop-and-go commute. A lot of people don't appreciate how much less stressful it is to wait at traffic lights when you car has the good sense to shut itself off, and not flick itself back to life until you release the break pedal. I firmly believe that if most cars were tuned to be stingy with fuel unless you really stomp on it, that simply keeping the revs down auto-stopping the engine when stopped would save the lion's share of fuel, hybrid or no hybrid.
Kevin commented:
I would agree that using 75,000 miles is just plain silly. I drove my last vehicle ('94 cavalier) 408K miles before the cost of repairing it outweighed its value. I am expecting my current vehicle (another 94 cavalier) to surpass that mileage.
My point is that at some point, the batteries on these hybrids are going to require replacement. Has anyone done a cost analysis that includes at least one (preferably more) of these battery changes? The information that I have seen on them so far has inferred that this cost would be quite substantial. And I have not seen any truly impressive results from hybridization. A Prius is rated at 45 highway/48 city? I am currently averaging (5 tank running average) over 41.9 combined mpg with my 14 yr old car. I would have thought that with all of the cars ‘advancements’, we would be vehicles with much better fuel economy than my very basic car.
So far I have NOT been impressed.
gj commented:
I have owned the 2003 Honda Civic Hybrid (w/standard trans) since November 2002 and I like the car and really enjoy the average 47 mpg. Some environmental factors not considered in the discussion are the extra nickel, cadmium and copper used for the battery and electric motor. Hopefully these can be recycled when I'm done with the car at least (currently has 240,000 miles). I calculated that with the rebate ($2000) I saved the extra $3000 (over the EX) at 90,000 miles on gas savings alone (with avg. gas price of $1.50 per gallon during that period.
Dan Miller commented:
I have owned a hybrid for the past 4 years. Whatever the economics may be (and I think they favor hybrids!), I take pleasure in quiet and smooth ride, the good acceleration, and the knowledge that my ecological footprint has been reduced. My friend owns an $80,000 luxury car (non-hybrid)and even he must admit that my hybrid runs smoother and quieter.
Steven Jones commented:
I find the comments on tax credits interesting and appear to skew the numbers. Here in NZ there are no such credits, a prius is 50~55% more than a similar engined conventional car and the conventional car will probably last longer and be cheaper to maintain, especially with age...so in cost I have difficulty making it add up....environmentally it gets really murky, if that's a worry, smaller cars with small highly efficient conventional petrol or diesel engines, or scooters/small mopeds maybe electric...all stack up and are better IMHO.
Will commented:
> surveys such as Consumer Reports’ are based on 75,000 miles of operating costs.
This is absurd; Prius' are going well beyond their 180,000 battery warranty mileage. This 'survey' was rigged...
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