Wind turbine economics 101: an engineer's view
As you would expect, engineers questioned my love affair with wind turbines. For starters, I just like things that spin and have watched developments in wind turbines since the mid-Seventies when they weren't much more than glorified eggbeaters.
The blog post which was the same as my May 14 print column provoked some great comments, several which of which praised coal for its vastly more favorable economics. One letter (on actual paper!) from Henry E. Payne III of Payne Engineering in Scott Depot, W. Va., makes two valid points that I was aware of, but neglected to cite in my column advocating a more aggressive approach to wind turbine adoption. Be aware, I have not changed my stance on wind turbines one iota and I did get reader responses sharing my enthusiasm.
On point one, I'll quote Henry's letter:
"One point is capacity factor. This is the full ratio of full-rated generation hours divided by the numbers of hours in a year. Typical capacity factors to a well-run nuclear or coal generating plant is 90-95%. For windmills, it was 2005%. Solar cells are about the same." In other words, the wind does not propel a large turbine at, say, its optimal rating of at 4.5 megawatts. If we're lucky, it'll generate 1.5 megawatts, points out coal and conservation advocate John Landis. Point two: if you want to know what electricity costs(a lot here in the Northeast!!), it's measured in megawatt hours or kilowatt hours. This is how electricity usage is measured.
I remain convinced that wind turbines and solar are each a part of the answer to our energy needs. How big an answer remains to be determined, but renewable sources nibbling away at the percentage of energy provided non-renewables can only be a good thing…especially as wider adoption drives down the cost down of renewables. For now, wind turbines must be subsidized in the U.S. like many new technologies. And they should be…it's one of the better uses of our tax dollars. And how can anyone argue with lower dependence on oil of the Middle East!?
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Lady 1: It doesn't matter as long as it fits a Camel.
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Tribute to a Visionary and Friend, by Dan Page
Updated Friday, July 18, 2008 ; 03:35 PM (editted for this blog)
For Mr. Henry E. Payne III, who was 73, it was a good life. For the rest of us, his good life made this world a better place.
Henry Payne was a businessman who took on the world. He competed globally against much larger manufacturers, and he was eager to take them on. I recall his stories about visits to South Africa, Asia and Europe.
Henry Payne was an avid racecar driver and an owner of a number of exotic vehicles. He took an engineer's approach to motor sports. While he appreciated speed and precision, he was just as interested in efficiency. Improving the mileage of his daily travel vehicle presented one more problem for him to solve.
Henry Payne was someone willing to share his beliefs and was prepared to present information to support them. He possessed kindness and candor in his relentless pursuit of the truth of science and society that would debunk commonly held beliefs. He was willing to share information about the benefits of technology and energy and how they could become a more prominent part of the West Virginia economy. He advocated electrically heated bridge decks and efficient transportation systems. He envisioned West Virginia power generation as an economic foundation for generations to come.
As a scientist, he embraced the quest to unravel the physical world's mysteries. In his last years, he created a model that mirrored the construct of the earth, its core and mantle and their properties.
For me, Henry Payne was one of those people who give us faith in mankind.
Jopower commented:
2005%?... obvious typo, not data error! The text also states that of an example rated cap of 4.5kw you get 1.5kw. 4.5/1.5=3.0 or 33%. So 2005% was really 25%. I was pointed here by a gloating wind power hater who repeated this data typo as "an example of the flawed gospel truth eco-extremists are pushing....".
So, ladies and gentlemen, please check your work for OBVIOUS typos. I saw this the second I read it but there are others who don't THINK on an engineering or even 6th grade math level when they grab at anything to support or refute their opinions. We must all get smart together or we will all most assuridly get dumb separately.
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Humphrey Bear commented:
I'd like to talk to this "engineer", a capacity factor of 2005% sounds a like we have somebody who played with the right numbers and didn't think about the final answer. Like to see the turbine ratings and assumed wind factor.
earthman-2000 commented:
I read your report in Design News "The Answer is Blowing in the Wind," and found it interesting. It is stunning how the US has lagged behind our friendly European nations in making alternative energy sources happen. I am sympathetic to environmental concerns that wind generators pose (such as bird-killing), but the way I see it the US needs to throw every spear it can at the impending energy crunches headed our way.
As a side note, I see the ever-growing human population as the engine of energy demand, so even if we do get busy and ambitious on alternative energy, we will at most get temporary relief from alternative energy sources.
But this just highlights the criticality of getting our butts off of the oil barrels and into making alternative energy sources real contributors to our energy picture.
Two other quick comments:
I had read in Science News about 2 years ago that 15 percent of the US's electricity needs could be met with OCEAN (tidal) power. At that time, the Europeans were going strong on ocean power, but the US stood idle. What's up with that?
Finally, I invest in energy stocks, and have tried to identify wind turbine companies to invest in, but to no avail. Is anyone aware of any publicly traded companies involved in wind power (or ocean power, for that matter)? I have pretty much concluded that the venture capitalists maintain control over this kind of technology in the US. (NOTE: I do appreciate GE being mentioned as a wind power maker, but GE is into EVERYTHING! I am looking for more narrowly focused companies.)
John Richards commented:
"One point is capacity factor. This is the full ratio of full-rated generation hours divided by the numbers of hours in a year. Typical capacity factors to a well-run nuclear or coal generating plant is 90-95%. For windmills, it was 2005%. Solar cells are about the same." WOW!! 2005% capacity factor for wind. I don't think so. 20% maybe.
