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What Would It Take To Make You Buy An EV?

October 23, 2009

These days, it might look like consumers are stampeding their dealerships in search of electric cars, but a new study indicates otherwise. The study, “Unplugging The Hype Around Electric Vehicles,” contends that battery-powered electric cars and plug-in hybrids will struggle in the next decade unless oil prices triple. The study reached its conclusions by examining “payback periods” and comparing the costs of operating a gasoline-burning car against the higher initial cost of electric vehicles.

            The author of the study, Jacob Grose, provided us with some sobering statistics about electric cars and their batteries. Grose says that an entire battery pack – battery cells, cooling and battery management systems – now cost an astounding $900/kW-hr. Over time, Grose says, those cost numbers will drop to between $420/kW-hr and $470/kW-hr.

            But think about it for a minute. That means a big, 60 kW-hr battery pack would cost more than $50,000 today. And that’s just the battery, not the entire car. When production volumes rise, battery prices will drop precipitously, but a big one will still run in excess of $20,000. A smaller 16 kW-hr battery – like those used on plug-in hybrids – might eventually drop to about $6,000, but it’s likely to be about $14,000 today, according to Grose’s numbers.

            The bottom line is this: Lux Research believes that pure electrics will be very expensive, and therefore are in for low sales figures. The outlook for plug-hybrids is better, but only if oil prices climb dramatically.

            So here’s a question: How much would you be willing to pay for an electric car? Would you pay a $50,000? $40,000? $30,000? And what would you expect for those prices? Would a 100-mile range suffice on a pure electric? Is a six-hour recharge time acceptable? Tell us what you think.

Posted by Captain Hybrid on October 23, 2009 | Comments (17)

November 20, 2009
In response to: What Would It Take To Make You Buy An EV?
jackson commented:

Don’t try to push batteries beyond their practical limits. Clean diesel/battery hybrid is a practical and potentially cost effective use of batteries that is something I would consider. All battery - no way.


November 18, 2009
In response to: What Would It Take To Make You Buy An EV?
Audeq commented:

It would have to have the performance of my G35, heat, A/C, etc. Unless Obamanation decides to flat price gas (variable taxes to dampen oil price changes) at a level that makes EVs cost competitive they will never sell and GM will go real bankrupt this time from the Chevy Volt.


November 13, 2009
In response to: What Would It Take To Make You Buy An EV?
mhajicek commented:

For one thing, it would have to actually be available, and that means not just in California. I only need about 40-50 miles per day, and overnight recharge is fine, but it must be able to keep up with traffic and not cost much more than a comparable gasoline car. I’ve been considering a Zap Alias, which meets those requirements at around $35000, except for the critical point of not actually being available. If I had one I’d love to put solar and/or wind turbines on my house to charge it with. That would take money out of the pockets of the fuel and power companies though, so that may be one reason we don’t see affordable electrics.


November 13, 2009
In response to: What Would It Take To Make You Buy An EV?
Jungleman commented:

I’d be interested when the milage per refill and total cost of ownership over 200k miles equalled that of a comparably equipped gasoline car/pickup. People shouldn’t have to pay an outragously high cost to go green.


November 13, 2009
In response to: What Would It Take To Make You Buy An EV?
Bobwojo commented:

Lets see, I would want a 200mile range in the winter under these conditions. 10 degrees F outside and snowing, Heat on, wipers and headlights on, stuck in a traffic jam on a Michigan expressway, takes 2 hours to go 40 miles.

Also, want operating cost over 150K miles same as gasoline.


November 13, 2009
In response to: What Would It Take To Make You Buy An EV?
GE commented:

Given the current state of technology, I would not consider either an EV or a hybrid. The up-front cost is way too high and those expensive batteries wear out on top of that. I live in the north east so cold winter mornings are also an issue. I image that there are some niche market (e.g. the garages of the wealthy in California) where EVs might find a niche but for any “average person” its a non-starter.


November 13, 2009
In response to: What Would It Take To Make You Buy An EV?
EV'er in ABQ commented:

I drove my conversion EV for 10 years and put 50K miles on it. I can’t afford to put another set of batteries in it, and that’s basic lead acid that gave me a max range of 70 miles on a charge. Yeah, the “fuel” is cheap at about 5 cents a mile, but it’s the 18 or 20 cents a mile in battery cost that puts it out of the running, at least cost-wise. I ended up buying a used gasser for the price of a set of batteries and I’ve been driving that longer than a set of batteries typically lasts.

If you can get past the fact it’s a ~30 mile one way trip car (you have to use the other 30 to get back home) it was a quite serviceable vehicle. No issues with hot or cold temps, driveability or utility. My employer even let me charge up at work for free. As a 2nd car it served me just as well as any gas car would.

But I think the automakers and legislators are smoking crack if they think the general public is going to fork over upwards of $40K or more for a BEV or PEV. I sure wouldn’t. And I like EV’s. There is no Moore’s law for batteries. It’s going to take a pretty miraculous discovery to come up with a storage method that matches a carbon hydrogen bond. My belief is the answer lies in renewable fuels long before you’ll come up with a cost-effective BEV/PEV. There is no magic bullet solution to energy independence, and even if everyone in the USA owned an EV today, it still wouldn’t be enough.


November 13, 2009
In response to: What Would It Take To Make You Buy An EV?
RD commented:

I’m totally up for spending >$30k on my next vehicle if its green. Problem is, I need ~40 miles max charge a day BUT need to seat 6 (2 adults + 4 small kids). I haven’t heard about any EV’s coming out that would seat more than 4.


November 13, 2009
In response to: What Would It Take To Make You Buy An EV?
DaveW commented:

A pluggable hybrid is the most logical solution. I might pay a $5K up to $10K premium. I would charge it from the outlet overnight and drive to/from work most of the time in the daytime. If I drive farther during the day or on the week end, the gas engine kicks in. Most of the time I am getting low mileage cost from being powered from the AC mains. This is efficient in engineering terms because the AC generating plant is much more efficient (50+%) than a gas engine (~20%), even after discounting power lost in charge/recharge of the battery. And batteries will get cheaper as the volume builds. The materials (lithium, iron and manganese, etc.) are not expensive. They are also environmentally friendly, unlike lead, cadmium and nickel.


November 13, 2009
In response to: What Would It Take To Make You Buy An EV?
Chiman commented:

I would not buy an EV at any cost. I keep my diesel VW Jetta wagon and Honda Fit.


November 13, 2009
In response to: What Would It Take To Make You Buy An EV?
fortybelow commented:

When Fargo and Grandforks North Dakota average +70deg F for the months of Jan/Feb. Anyone who has started a vehicle at neg 40 for the 10th morning in a role will understand what temperature does to batteries.


November 13, 2009
In response to: What Would It Take To Make You Buy An EV?
Michael D. commented:

100 miles on a single charge - not enought need 400 to 600 in part because of the limit to the number of times a battery can be charged and the max power fall off rate for rechargable batteries. Remember that rechargable batteries will only charge to 80% capacity after say 60% of the maximum number of recharge cycles, and the shorter the range the more often the will need to be recharged. Additionally low (freezing) as well as high (100 degree) tempatures play havoc on batteries. A small alternate fuel engine could provide environmental control (heating and air conditioning) as well as additional electrical power for night driving lights and windshield wipers, extra power for climbing hills, battery recharge and battery temperature stabilization.


November 13, 2009
In response to: What Would It Take To Make You Buy An EV?
Steve commented:

My car will go 300 miles on a tank of gas and can be "re-charged" in 5 minutes. Match that for $30K and I'd be interested. Otherwise, no way.


November 13, 2009
In response to: What Would It Take To Make You Buy An EV?
WireMan commented:

Battery-powered and hybrid cars have to get energy from somewhere. Plug ins simply shift the power source to electricity generating plants. I’m not sure about hybrids. You’d really have to sell me on the benefits. Gasoline still has a lot going for it. Easy to store, high energy content, easy to transport, etc. I’m not a big believer in man-made CO2 having an effect on “global warming,” particularly now that we see several years of “global cooling.”


November 13, 2009
In response to: What Would It Take To Make You Buy An EV?
Mark M commented:

i would buy one for around 25000. 100 mi is more than enough for my commute of 12 mi a day.

6 hr chg time no problem but would keep gas car for long trips


November 13, 2009
In response to: What Would It Take To Make You Buy An EV?
ReidShipp commented:

Price! I once owned one that I paid only $1000 for. It was not air conditioned, no power breaks or stearing. The range was enough for my commute. The state of Texas needs to change things also. The disposal tax on my lead/acid batteries was a bit much and the insurance for a second vehicle was enough to offset the savings.


November 13, 2009
In response to: What Would It Take To Make You Buy An EV?
Ian C. commented:

There’s also the issue that electric cars are unsuitable for North East USA due to winter cold - that’s a lot of missed customers.

The electric car has first to be practical. Last trip to Florida I drove as much as 480 miles in one day; can’t do that in an electric.

Once it’s practical, then let’s see how the up front cost balances the long term running costs.

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