Whoa...The End Of The Oil Era?

Once again we have predictions made by those whose main qualifications are good writing skills. For starters, an electric vehicle will need to cost less, both to own and to operate, than a fuel based vehicle. And jacking the prices of gas up is a certified evil way to attempt to make that happen. The electric car does not need to go 250 miles on a charge, it just needs to be quick and convenient to charge up. I could do my thousand mile vacation trip in a car with 100 miles per charge range if a recharge took 15 minutes, or less. And if the electric car were priced a lot less, I would have one for commuting to work and a different one for longer trips. Forget the concept of “change-out” battery packs, because we all know that the one you wind up with will never be as good as the one you just exchanged.

Natural gas and some sort of cheap fuel cell would be the ultimate, but the fundamental problem there is that much of the natural gas energy is available by burning the carbon in the gas. So far, fuel cells only use hydrogen and oxygen, the winner will be the one who comes up with a fuel cell that uses carbon. That invention would make natural gas fuel cell vehicles the real winner, with no competition.

Check out the documentary film, “Fuel”. It appears that it is feasible to make most petroleum products, including gasoline and diesel from algae. It takes significantly less energy to make these fuels than what is available from the finished product. The petroleum industry is interested because only slight modifications to existing refineries will be required. It can be carbon neutral and would use current distribution systems. The oil companies would love to be able to produce regionally and ship via pipelines instead of by ships.

“Oil” is gonna be around for a long time.

It seems to me that the first technology that gets roughly the same range as gas cars today at roughly the same price with a fuel distribution system comparable to gasoline will win. Whoever can get the "gas" companies to realize they are really in the distribution business and convince them to distribute a new fuel (whether it is LPG, hydrogen, electricty ....) has the best shot at becoming the winning technology. The average American doesn't care what the technology is but until gas goes and stays over $5 per gallon they aren't going to be willing to give up anything to change to a different technology. Most Americans living in cities have had mass transit options for at least a couple of decades but won't give up driving their cars.

to phil...Catalytic converters were fought by EU automakers into the mid 1990s. They were fitted to the export models .Eu polution standards were behind US until strong intervetion by the greens inpublilc displays in the 1990s. Refer to the Book Germany and the Germans a moden History. Authour not available now but still in print.

captain hybrid: your euro-BMW from the 1990's had no catalytic converter? you clearly know nothing about cars...what a silly statement.

Considering the source (Deutsche Bank), it seems that this report reflects a lot of what they hope to happen from the current events. It’s not the first time someone has reported something to happen in the futur that seemed plausible (i.e. cities/colonies on the moon by 2000). I’ll beleive it when I see it, and I won’t buy stocks based on their predictions.

I just love the continued self-degradation of America by Pundits! Case in point this recents quote:

“U.S. demand is key. It is the last market-priced, oil-inefficient, major oil consumer. We believe Obama’s environmental agenda, the bankruptcy of the U.S. auto industry, the war in Iraq, and global oil supply challenges have dovetailed to spell the end of the oil era.”

Hello, Europe and most of Eurasia didn;t even consider unleaded fuel or the use of catalytic converters until the mid-90’s. I left Europe in 1990 and my Beamer still used unleaded fuel and had no catalytic converter. To “Americanize” it would cost several thousand $US and wasn;t worth it.

The smog in the winter over there from Brown Coal was terrible for outdoor exercise. Guess where we export most of our brown coal too? China, India and Indonesia. Can anyone tell me that these countries have any agency remotely resembling our EPA? How about emission restrictions on vehicles. Guarantee you will find two stroke gas and oil mix super-polluting vehicles in rural areas just chugging along!

But, Oh America is the worst polluter and must clean up our act first! We have since 1972, Continually. Yet many states still do not regualte emissions or require regular vehicle exhaust checks. Many states still allow people to burn trash in their own back-yards with only fire season restrictions but not pollutants. Choosing to turn blind eyes and hope the “honor system” will keep them form burning plastics and solvents! So, can we do better? You betcha! But, to actually publish this drivel that we are the root of the whole worlds ills is evil, counter-productive and self-defeating.

Plus not very scientific…

What do we breathe and eat when all the oxygen and plants are used up? Vehicles with engines are quite unnatural.

The Chevy Volt has gone from $31,000 to $42,000 to over $50,000 per unit and the range hasn’t improved. You have to stay in the realm of commonly affordable transportation; nothing else is relevant. Dollar for dollar, EPA requirements & all, the new electrics can’t compete with existing low-tech LNG technology. Performance wise - Tesla is another rich guys toy endeavor; as is the direct drive dragsters. They are fast- fast-fast; and way to pricey for the Toyoto Soccer Mom/commute to work crowd. The vast majority of people don’t drag-race; or street race for that matter. LNG is a known, proven technology; the electrics are still tricked out curiousities that most people can’t afford and won’t buy. The “upscale greenies” will buy a few but not enuf to make it a profit base.

LNG is cheap to produce and cheap & easy to adapt to our existing tech base. It’s all about the money.

I would like to point out a fundamental difference between the 1970s and 2010s decade. China and India with about 2 billion combined were not in play at the end of the oil embargo. They are now major consumers of oil and China is expected to overtake the US, despite the recession; the trend is there.

That being said, I think electrics will overtake gasoline not because of efficiency, but because of performance. Just look at what elecric car drag racing is doing in just the last decade (gas had almost a hundred years to reach the same point) and look at the XP electric prototype racecar that blows away Nascars. The end of the gas engine will come in two parts, one in efficiency and two performance. The performance of a Teslar is equal/better than Porsche and it this is just their first try. Porshe has had decades to do tweak performance what Tesla did on its very first vehicle. When it comes to performance gas cars are in their old age and peaked, while electrics are in their youth and still growing.

There are hundreds of millions of dollars currently being invested in the LNG-Vehicle push. Hide and watch. The realization that Natural Gas & Coal/Oil-Shale based SynGas is a cheap/ relatively clean fuel source has finally hit in the U.S. Internal combustion vehicles can be easily designed to meet every EPA standard anticipated in the next fifty years, using Natural Gas or SynGas as the primary American fuel. Converting an existing vehicle to LNG fuel runs about $1200 - hardware & installation. EPA mileage requirements and pollution requirements are not an issue with LNG and the cost per gallon is under $1.65 and getting cheaper all the time. The U.S. has hundreds of trillions of cubic feet of Natural Gas that has yet to touched and more coal reserves than anyone on the planet. Coal reserves = SynGas by the trillions of cubic feet. Economics will force the issue towards LNG.

Until Electric vehicles become more efficient and don’t have the exorbitant purchase price going in; as well as the exorbitant prices to dispose of the batteries when they go bad - electric vehicles will remain just another rich guys toy. It’s all about the cost of production, range of the vehicle, cost to the consumer and then the cost of up-keep on a vehicle. The electrics are dogs on too many of those issues.

Natural Gas / SynGas economics = LNG vehicles for the next several decades.

never underestimate the ability of an economic prediction to miss the mark. i heard a lot of this kind of prediction back in the 1970s, but as soon as the oil cartels re-opened their production, the American public (*and* auto manufacturers!) forgot all about high-priced oil. so long as the oil and auto industries can avoid investing billions of dollars in new manufacturing and distribution networks, they will, and if the public doesn’t apply any pressure, there’s no reason for them to change. all the good intentions in the world won’t change that, but perhaps a nuclear blast in a major American city would make us re-consider things. sadly, i think it will come to that.

Well, that is about the time that Fusion is projected to become a commercial reality. Until then when it’ll be projected out yet again another 20 years.

Walter, if your criteria is 250 miles, then that has already been achieved by Tesla, albeit in an expensive roadstar, but you did not qualify the cost, just that it had to be done. In 2011, Tesla is projected to release a 300 mile range luxury Sedan at about $50K, perhaps less.

I’d say a sustained 5% annual reduction for oil demand in the US would send the oil market in a tailspin.

It’s all up to the pace of battery innovation - pricing and performance.

I doubt this report will come to pass until an electric powered car has a driving range of at least 250 miles. You can already achieve this with compressed natural gas vehicles. Unfortunately the distribution of CNG stations are clustered around urban areas and are sparse along the Interstate highway system. Also American car manufacturers do not promote CNG fueled vehicles for the public at large. State and federal agencies only, seem to be the preferred customers.