2050 Peak Coal May Make the US into the Next Middle East

February 29, 2008

The world is running out of a critical fossil energy source: coal; so says the Energy Watch Group. This European consortium of scientists is working to quantify fossil and atomic energy shortages and develop scenarios for regenerative energy sources.

In a recent article, “Coal Futures”, American Scientist magazine summarized “Coal: Resources and Future Production”, a report published by the Energy Watch Group in March 2007. The report indicates that based on current consumption versus production rates, the United States has roughly 200 years of coal reserves remaining. However, according to the Energy Watch Group, China, the world’s fastest growing and largest coal consumer, has only about 40 years of domestic coal reserves left. Once that supply is exhausted, China will need to look for external sources to feed its coal habit.

Where, I wonder, will the Chinese look?

The Energy Watch Group’s projections are based upon fitting a bell-shaped curve to existing coal reserve data to predict the date for peak coal production. This same process was famously applied by Dr. M.K. Hubbert to accurately predict peak oil production in the United States in the mid 1970’s (the so-called Hubbert’s Peak). For more information on the debate over peak oil, check out my post “There is Still Plenty of Oil, Says CERA”.

There are some inherent dangers with this kind of predictive Gaussian curve fitting. First, resource reserve numbers must be accurately known; which for Chinese coal they are not. Second, rates of resource consumption must be well-understood; however, future coal consumption may be accelerated because the resource is the last alternative to other depleted fossil fuel sources. Third, regulatory constraints on resource utilization must be known; but, given the potential pollution and climate change ramifications of massive coal consumption, future governmental restrictions on coal use cannot be predicted today.

Despite possible uncertainties in their methods, the Energy Watch Group has published numbers that raise alarming questions about our energy future. While the United States is busy pouring resources into the Middle East to keep the oil flowing, what is being done to safeguard our domestic coal supplies?

In a “flat world” where currency and energy freely flow across international borders, the coal reserves of the United State might begin to look pretty appealing to the energy-hungry world of 2050. Is anything being done to prevent today’s exploiter from becoming tomorrow’s exploited?

Posted by Matthew Traum on February 29, 2008 | Comments (3)

Industries:

March 1, 2008

In response to: 2050 Peak Coal May Make the US into the Next Middle East
Pythor Sehn commented:

Energy Independence, What you have is a box of band-aids. You're trying to treat the symptoms and not the disease. The disease is the belief that we can forever operate our economy as a infinite growth and consumption engine, coupled with infinite population growth, on a continent with finite resources. We don't need a hysterical grab at every last energy source we can find in a mad attempt to continue business-as-usual. We need to abandon the parasitic nature of our culture and transform it into something sustainable. In terms of those band-aids, your suggested use of more coal will cause more global warming, which will dash to pieces your hopes for using ethanol as a fuel source (which is a joke in itself: burning our food supply, causing inflation, increasing pollution, destroying topsoil, polluting land, air, and water...). Global warming will wreck our crop lands and deplete our water. Ethanol takes a heck of a lot of water to produce. And in case you didn't notice, the Earth's topography isn't homogeneous: the conditions for Brazil's ethanol production absolutely cannot be replicated here. Ethanol is a scam. And I hope you're not also suggesting we import Brazil's sugar cane slavery, too. Let's see. Natural gas has some geographical constraints, and it will also be peaking, most likely after oil and before coal. Then what? That's short-sighted. Wind and solar are still plagued with problems of storage, scale, grids, and intermittency. Nuclear power coupled with breeder reactors is about the only thing that might help. But again, none of this matters unless we can achieve a situation in which our rate of consumption of natural resources is equal to or less than nature's production rate.

March 1, 2008

In response to: 2050 Peak Coal May Make the US into the Next Middle East
Energy Independence commented:

Stop funding the terrorists! No more Oil Wars! Energy Independence Now! Drill in Anwar. Build more nuclear power plants Use More coal. Use more natural gas Turn trash into energy Double the efficiency of windmills and solar cells. If France can do nuclear power so can we. If Brazil can do biomass/ethanol power so can we. If Australia can do LNG power so can we. Domestically produced energy will end the recession and spur the economy. Stop paying oil dollars to those who worship daily at the alter of our destruction. Preserve our Civil Rights and defend our Freedom by ending dependence on foreign oil.

March 1, 2008

In response to: 2050 Peak Coal May Make the US into the Next Middle East
norme2 commented:

The EWG Coal Report show US miner productivity falling and BTUs being shipped falling, in spite of rising tonnage. Our best coal, anthracite is about gone, bituminous has peaked, so the QUALITY of the coal being mined and shipped is falling. Veins are smaller, deeper and of lower quality. We may have a lot of coal left in the US, just as we have a lot of oil left, but the quality if falling and the extraction effort and expense is rising. We are in trouble.

Design News Partner Zones

CAD/CAE Model Clean-Up: Reduce Iterative Cycles
This webinar featured research and survey results related to problems associated with preparing CAD geometry for CAE applications. We discussed how Recipe-Based Automation can help create "just-in-time" CAE-ready geometry each time a cad model is updated. Watch the Presentation

Light Matters: Systems Level Approach to HBLED illumination applications
Its good practice to apply a systems-level approach to high-brightness LED (HBLED) illumination applications. Minimally, the system includes the optical, thermal and electrical characteristics of the of the HBLED, the lens (if any) which is built-in to its package, secondary optics such as external plastic lenses/reflectors to direct the light as your application requires and power driver electronics. Read More

Design Engineers' Portal for Sensing and Machine Safety
Whatever industry you're in, or whatever product you manufacture, the right sensors to automate your plant, and to improve your overall efficiency, quality and safety are a must. You'll find Banner Engineering to be an amazing resource of products, training and people with expertise.