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Thursday, October 11, 2007

Boeing 787 Dreamliner delay conspiracy theories

Oct 11 2007 6:45AM | Permalink | Email this | Comments (31) |
Blog This! using: Blogger.com | LiveJournal |

It's hard for us to know what confidential conversations go on between Boeing 787 executives and their airline customers. As a rule, Boeing is mum on such exchanges. But it's hard to imagine, the initial 15 customers that Boeing expects will be affected by the six-month delay in 787 deliveries didn't factor schedule changes into their plans. Boeing announced yesterday that 787 deliveries are being pushed from May to the end of next year.

Damian Martin, a spokesman for All Nippon Airways (ANA), Boeing first customer for 787, declined to discuss its agreements with Boeing, but did send along ANA's  press statement: "We regret that delivery of the 787 will be delayed and we hope to keep the impact of the delay to a minimum. Going forward, we will work closely with Boeing on preparation for the actual delivery." Read what you will into ANA's statement, but there is privileged communication between ANA and Boeing that we'll never know until someone does a book on the 787. My one thought is that ANA - a very loyal Boeing customer - is adopting a tough stance. It could have said "We understand that completing the 787 is a complex task and full of unknowns."   Instead it said "it regrets the delay," suggesting ANA is taking a hit and will impose penalties as defined in its Boeing contracts.

I'm told yesterday's news will not trigger any management or engineering executive changes. In the politburo-watch department, the absence of  787 VP and GM Mike Bair from yesterday's call was painfully obvious although he was mentioned once. As 787 development chief, he has led the discussion on the two previous 787 update calls that I have particpated in. A spokeswoman told me that he was simultaneously relaying the delay news to the 787 team and answering questions. The media and analysts embarassed themselves by asking the same question repeatedly in yesterday's call. Three or four times, they asked why Boeing has confidence that it can meet  its original 2009 production schedule in light of the latest and largest of the three delays so far. And three or four times, they got the same canned answer.

A couple of readers of yesterday's story offered their theories behind the delay. Software engineer Richard Williams said he does not buy that the problems can be traced to a fastener shortage or the dive the aircraft industry took after 9/11. Rather, he thinks avionics software is hung up by the effects of the RTCA/DO-178b standard, which certifies avionics software and in his opinion causes unecessary delays in the delivery of same.  In yesterday's call, Boeing executives - there were three on the call: CEO W. James McNerney Jr., CFO James A. Bell and Commercial Planes CEO Scott E, Carson (numbers 1, 3 and 4 in the Boeing corporate hierarchy, respectively)  -- downplayed the avionics software lag, but conceded they welcome more time to test it.

Mark Belgen applauds Boeing for not taking shortcuts - "It instills a while lot more confidence in their aircraft." - but worries about so much parts offshoring.  "This demonstrates the U.S.'s vulnerability to parts availability due to offshored companies. It is only going to get worse and I believe poses a serious threat to national security."

Indeed, the logistics of 40-50 major worldwise suppliers who in turn depend on several supplier sub-tiers to provide 70% of the parts for the 787 is mind-boggling. Then the planes get snapped together in as little as three days! While it might be doable, it would seem rife with potential points of failure. The WSJ reported this morning that Boeing officials said the distributed  manufactruing has saved the company more the $1 billion in up front development costs. 

What do you think?

Related entries in: Communities | Design News | 




at 10/11/2007 4:21:19 PM, zzz said:
Boeing will never get this plane off the ground. It was a pipe dream.

at 10/11/2007 5:04:24 PM, John Dodge said:
zzz, Why do you said that?

at 10/11/2007 11:38:14 PM, cb said:
The aircraft will indeed fly. I have been working on qualifying the composite structure worldwide for the last 2 years. It was clear to everyone, but senior management that there would be such a delay. Boeing simply should have revealed this six months ago instead of repeatedly stating the aircraft would fly on schedule to keep their stock price in tact. I do question the “fastener shortage” as a contributing factor. Partners indeed did not have the required fasteners at the time they needed to ship, yet that was due to mismanagement in their own supply chains. Start delivering 14 aircraft a month, and you might have a fastener storage.

at 10/12/2007 8:42:14 AM, keesje said:
The 787 will fly and I expect all issue to be solved in a few years. Certification, lessons learned from flight testing & structural testing are part of the process too. Child deceases popping up in operation also take some time to be corrected. Thing is everybody ralying behind the Dreamliner slowly started to believe this was something totally different and more then an new aircraft. I think it isn't.

at 10/17/2007 8:50:34 AM, John Dodge said:
CB, I think you have it right and the fact they didn't announce one delay with enough margin to make sure it was the only delay is why they replaced Mike Bair as GM of the 787 project

at 10/17/2007 4:52:29 PM, dreamliner said:
Having 50 worldwide suppliers who depend on several subtiers is indeed mind boggling. Boeing is supporting this effort by sending out audit teams in as far away as southeast asia and india. It's a revolutionary idea that CEO's and program managers around the world have bought into. Boeing will come out a whole lot smarter after this adventure

at 10/18/2007 9:17:29 AM, sm said:
Could it be time to short Boeing stock??

at 10/22/2007 5:26:44 AM, EG said:
Translate fastener shortage, as bad management, or weak excuse for more serious problems? I just wonder what and how much poison that composite material exudes over a few hours flying time?

at 11/1/2007 10:11:12 PM, b.s. said:
I'll tell it to you plan and simply it's not going to fly. First hand experienced dealing with the 787 dreamliner, the company that is under Boeing is doing a terrible job with getting the parts and proper tools to put the plane together.

at 11/11/2007 3:01:27 AM, MJ said:
No doubt the 787 project will experience delays getting the software which drives this plane to bug proof stage. Aircraft manufactures struggle with managing on time deliverables in IT.

at 11/14/2007 10:26:51 PM, sakthivel india said:
hi all.. when the boeing people do great things before we appreciated ..well.. but when they face some problems why cant we wait and see...i hope boeing will succeed with 787. THINK POSITIVE

at 11/16/2007 6:06:42 PM, former 787 manufacturing technician said:
All Hail the Bloodplane!

at 11/23/2007 10:31:19 PM, rsr said:
All composites, God bless!

at 11/30/2007 3:57:04 PM, 787 Assembly Tech said:
Mmm, issues everywhere regarding this project. Seems a few of the Tier 1 suppliers dealing with substantial problems driven by the huge demand.

at 11/30/2007 7:08:36 PM, Everett first world migrant worker said:
They paid me 12.72 with my A&P license to built the most advanced plane in the world, what a joke. They also paid a bunch of pot heads the same, oh wait I was one of them. No random drug testing sounded good to me. Once I was off the hippie lettuce I quit, you must be on drugs to think this plane will fly at the end of the first quarter, let alone deliver 109 planes by the end of 2009. Go ahead and drink the Kool-Aide.

at 12/1/2007 5:52:43 PM, Former IT guy said:
I was disappointed to hear that Boeing will miss it's target date with the 787. Penalties for same are built into the contracts, and are substantial. Mullaly led the charge to subcontract out construction, a very serious step to take (read the book "Airframe" by Michael Chrichton...they essential sold the farm). My guess is that he was brought into Ford to do the same thing, hope not.

at 3/1/2008 2:23:29 PM, 787 tech said:
Ship 2 went to Seattle 2 moths late from the last revised schedule change and several 1,000 structure parts hort and no insulation, wrong hardware, no system components and full of FOD and unworked discrepancies generated by Vought. Stringer wrinkles and delams go unchecked by Vought quality, no inventory control oversight and accountability, inability to attract competent technicians to the facility. Novice Student inspectors, no competent mgnt organization in house and union troubles all mean ship 3,4,5, and 6 all have more defects than the fatigue model. The 787 will be the demise of Boeing, wait and see

at 3/10/2008 3:43:19 PM, Engineer from Europe said:
Hi guys. I think that what is happening is normal. Puting together an all new aircraft takes time, effort and determination. It happened before with the 747 and with the 380. World has changed and no company can afford to build a plane by itself. The point is not if Boeing is capable of doing it better alone. The point is that Boeing does it with dozens of smaller companies or Boeing does nothig.

at 3/12/2008 11:59:50 PM, TL Machine 714-554-8809 said:
Come on folks, anyone who has been in the biz long enough to know the difference between NC control and CNC control can appreciate the fact that new design projects take time, talent, patience, and an unwaivering eye on the prize to get airborne. This program will fly. It's a good time to be in aerospace. Checkout www.tlmachine.com in Garden Grove CA. We're ready to provide a manufacturing solution. 714-852-5662

at 3/18/2008 6:39:19 PM, Eng from TLS said:
What''s really worrying is the unability of Boeing to get even a single 787 in to the sky. Airbus got huge delays with the A380, but msn001 flew on time and the flight test programme started right away. What ever the shortages, mismanagement or incompetences with subcontractors, msn001 should be flying by now. What''s the real status of the first 787 to be flown? Is there some design problems emerging...?

at 3/24/2008 3:34:09 AM, rk said:
who us having the last laugh now?

at 3/24/2008 9:46:16 AM, Wing Being Redesigned said:
One of the wings is being redesigned...

at 3/25/2008 12:10:04 PM, Disgruntled 787 Insider said:
The whole project is a mess, and continues to be so. I used to be proud to work at Boeing, the quality was superb, people took pride in what they were doing, now its all fire brigade, and patch jobs. Congratulations Boeing, for $13 you get stoners and high school kids with attitude, not people that take pride in their work.

at 4/7/2008 8:33:34 PM, jimh615 said:
By the time Boeing pays the delay penalties and the overweight penalties, this program will result in no profits at all......and I thought Boeing couldn't produce an MD-11.

at 4/9/2008 4:43:43 PM, jake said:
This latest announcement is yet just another crafty damage control Boeing has so masterfully perfected to avoid a collapse of their stock. How many times have they promised that another 6 month delay is what they need in order to get back on track? Why are these analyst and investors should believe Boeing now? Boeing as of late is run by a bunch of buffoons and no more. Buy Airbus!

at 4/9/2008 4:48:45 PM, jake said:
If you follow the news lately, a lot of Boeing planes are all of a sudded having major issues. Is it a maintenance issue, you say? Then why are all the series affected such as; 737, 777, 767, 747 and 757? Boeing will go down hard and will soon be non-existent.

at 4/10/2008 1:43:57 AM, Harry T said:
I think it will fly

at 4/20/2008 12:20:27 PM, GimmeAbrake said:
My company makes the wheels and brakes for the 787. We are saddened by the delay because we were hoping to go into production this summer. But we are confident this ac will get off the ground and be a great success.

at 6/3/2008 10:05:16 PM, Jamie D said:
Why are there so many naysayers of Boeing? They will build another fine aircraft, as they have for many years. We are looking at the reinvention of the technology for building the machines, and a few problems are to be expected, as they were in the Airbus 380. As for the Boeing haters: Next time walk to your destination, rather than fly a 7 series aircraft. The MD-11, as was the DC 10, were badly designed from the beginning, like no Boeing product ever was.

at 6/29/2008 7:38:51 AM, Troll Killer said:
To all whom say that the 787 will never fly: you are simply trolling (and are a bit retarded).

at 6/30/2008 1:06:12 PM, bordhead said:
All you low level production grunts that are dissing Boeing and 787 program are clueless. I sure none of you were around on the 747, 767, 737, 757, 777, or any of the earlier programs. Otherwise you would know that there are always monumental problems with a new airplane. The 747 had disastorous problems, but the company overcame them. The 787 is a quantum leap in material, avionics, powerplant technology, and will completely change the face of commerical air transport. You think this is first time Boeing has bet the farm. You have no idea. This bird will fly and it will make Boeing a lot of money.

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