Boeing Co. recently insisted that the new battery design for its 787 Dreamliner "eliminates the possibility of fire." That may have pacified the average consumer, but it hasn't made engineers very happy.
In comments to our post on Boeing's announcement, readers have compared the Dreamliner to the Titanic. They've called the lead engineer "cocky," accused Boeing of a "lack of thinking," and contended that its management "should be hanging their collective heads in shame."
For me, admittedly, this is tough to watch. I met members of Boeing's technical and management staff 17 years ago, when Design News presented Alan Mulally with its Engineer of the Year Award for his leadership in the design of the 777. And we met again in 2007, when we named Tom Cogan of Boeing our Engineer of the Year. Talking to them on both those occasions, and hearing how they had successfully managed such immense and complex projects, I was in awe. And I've remained in awe ever since.
That's why it's so tough now to watch Boeing follow one technical blunder with another. To the public, maybe its recent comments don't seem like a blunder. After all, saying that its new lithium-ion battery design eliminates the chance of fire is the ultimate vote of confidence, isn't it? Saying that a fire "can't begin, develop, or be sustained" is a sign that the problem has been solved, right?
Maybe we'll never see another lithium-ion battery fire on a Boeing jet. But what's angering our readers isn't the results. It's the approach. Saying "never" isn't engineering talk. It's public relations speak, and engineers don't like public relations speak. They're trained to deal with realities, not wishful thinking.
It's especially egregious when you consider the background of lithium-ion batteries and Boeing's ongoing story in particular. Lithium-ion batteries have had overheating problems and/or fires in laptop computers, in hybrid electric cars, and on board the Boeing 787. They're a known commodity -- a battery with an energetic chemistry that has a dubious reputation, because engineers sometimes have failed to appreciate the full risk.
Before the 787 fire at Boston's Logan International Airport in January, Boeing engineers obviously knew they were dealing with a vigorous battery chemistry. We reported last week on an interim report from the National Transportation Safety Board, in which Boeing engineers said they had assessed the risk of a "battery venting smoke" at once in 10 million flight hours and the risk of a "battery venting fire" at once in a billion hours. But in slightly more than 50,000 hours, the company has had one fire and one overheating incident.
I agree, notarboca. I think that's why so many of our readers felt so strongly about Boeing's statements. Their statements are classic public relations speak.
@charles, the minute an engineer hears this is more than upsetting; it absolutely goes against the grain of both training and experience. Most of us can relate to relegating a potential problem to "that's never gonna happen," only to have it happen in real life. Lessons like that should only have to be learnt once, and to have management proclaim there will be no more fires is the pinnacle of outrageousness and folly.
Chuck, I try not to remember the things I did back then that endangered my life. Although the memories did come in handy when helping to parent--or should I say "aunt" as a verb?--my nephew.
The idea came from the readers, who within 24 hours were expressing disappointment (and sometimes disgust) over Boeing's claims. We've got a smart bunch of readers at Design News.
Your point is well taken, William K. If they made their claims with regard to one possible cause, it would be easier to accept. But when they still haven't nailed down the cause of the Logan Airport fire, how can they definitively say there can't be another fire?
ScotCan, your example is a perfect one. I worked at companies in the late 80s where MBAs and the bean-counting, short-term-profitability concept they brought with them had a direct, negative effect on the company's product quality, performance, and time-to-market. And the arrogance...well, that was amazing. OTOH, I also worked at a company that eventually got sold and disappeared because it didn't have realistic budgets or product launch timelines, yet had one of the most innovative product ideas and engineering I've ever seen.
If those folks at Boeing wanted to be a bit more accurate they could have claimed that there would never be a fire from whatever cause they had removed from the list of potential causes, which it seems that they have done. But there are always other failure modes that can cause problems, and getting rid of all of the possible failure modes is a HUGE effort, perhaps not even possible. On top of that, just one bullet fired from the ground could, if it impacted the battery box, cause a number of failure modes. That is more of a problem with military aircraft, but none-the-less it is another potential cause. In this day and age we do have those who do that sort of thing, like crashing planes int buildings.
On the other side, it is a wonderful thing to be invincible, and quite traumatic to lose one's invincibility. Perhaps we have some folks like that at Boeing.
I'm sure you're absolutely right, loadster. Boeing has to describe this as "zero risk" for legal reasons. When engineers hear those words, though, it's upsetting.
I think your article stated it correctly. Marketers and managers use superlatives without care. Engineers should be immediately alert and be reminded to use metrics and quantitative realities they can defend. "how to lie with statitistics" is a prerequisite to every political debate.
We may not like the solution Boeing and FAA agreed upon. We may not perceive it as thorough or exhaustive or in our individual branding: safe. They are selling convenient cost-controlled air travel. We are buying or not.
Of course Boeing claims they have created a zero-risk solution. To declare anything else would admit known liability and inherent design flaw. Zero is their definition of significant figures. I'm impressed they gave as much disclosure as they did about the corrections implemented.
So flier beware and keep your will in order. And if you see something, say something. Smoke, particularly.
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