<<At some point, rare earth elements will be plentiful again...speculators may be shooting themselves in their collective foot.>>
I think they figure that out late last fall, which is why the price started dropping. Prices got so high that more and more engineers at all levels of the food chain started looking for alternatives, Which may demand drop. All of a sudden, The speculators got worried they'd be stuck with a bunch of metal in a warehouse, so they started dumping inventory onto the market.The price of both neodymium and dysprosium are severalfold higher than they were in 2010, even, but they're down 30 and 40% from where they were at the height last summer.
That's a good question, naperlou. I have a query out to one of my motor guys to see what he has to say about it. Obviously, that rule of thumb is likely to be wildly distorted over the past several years, which explains the introduction of the magnet surcharge.
No question that prices are up. On the motor side, I tend to talk to engineers rather than sales folks, so I don't have exact numbers.Last November, IMS Research analyst Jenelea Howell predicted that the average price of servomotors would jump by 9.3% in 2012. That number may have softened because of stabilizing prices for REEs, but the materials are still up significantly from their price of four or five years ago. In some cases, manufacturers have written the cost into their contracts, along the lines of the fuel surcharge that airport limo services began using a few years ago. Lenze, For example, has a page on their website explaining a fuel surcharge that scales for increasing neodymium and dysprosium prices relative to their March 2011 values.
That's a really good question, Naperlou. With new sources found in Afghanistan, a mine again active in Australia and working getting down to create alternatives to rare earth elements, it seems inevitable the supply will exceed demand in a few short years.
One interesting point to remember is that the mines in the US closed down becuase prices had dropped so much. What happens next time they drop? Do we become dependent on another supplier that will manipulate the price for their own purposes?
At some point, rare earth elements will be plentiful again. Mines in the U.S., Australia and Afghanistan will begin producing plenty of materials. By then, however, alternatives may be available. Speculators may be shooting themselves in their collective foot.
apresher, that is an interesting question. Another way to ask that is to ask what is the typical percentage of the cost of a motor that the magnets comprise. Is there any rule of thumb on that, Kristin?
Beth, this is a good example of adversity spurring innovation. While some of the techniques and technologies may not pan out, they may well lead to new discoveries themselves. I am especially impressed by the efforts in nano materials that this entails.
Kristin, Excellent article. Any idea how much price premium % the shortage of REEs is adding to permanent magnet motors? I'm curious how much of an impact the shortage might have in this area. Also, wondering if the performance of the new materials will meet or surpass current performance standards. Thanks.