In the summer of 2011, motor and magnet manufacturers found themselves in the formerly unheard-of position of not getting a firm price until delivery or having to pay for their order up front. The primary market characteristic was instability. Six months later, things have moderated. The price of neodymium has fallen by almost half from its peak, though the material remains significantly more expensive than it was a few years ago. Dysprosium has dropped in price, as well, but it remains expensive.
As we reported at the time, a common opinion during the cost hikes was that they were triggered by reductions in Chinese export quotas. Now analysis suggests that the issue was not a real contraction in supply, but a speculation bubble created by hoarding.
Though Chinese export quotas for rare earth elements dropped appreciably starting in 2008, quantities shipped per year have never exceeded those quotas. (Source: Technology Metals Research LLC)
“There's a lot of misunderstanding about the export quotas,” says Gareth Hatch, founding principal of Technology Metals Research LLC. “Certainly, in 2010, which is when we saw the first price increases in the raw materials, there was a drop in the export quota numbers of about 40 percent compared to the prior year. The reality is that we've never actually gotten close to those limits. Of the materials that could have been exported last year -- roughly 30,000 tons -- it appears that less than half was actually exported.”
When demand for rare earth materials softened last fall in response to price hikes, speculators began releasing the materials they held, and prices went down.
New sources of neodymium, such as Molycorp.'s Mountain Pass mine, are expected to come online this year, though new supplies of dysprosium will probably be delayed until 2016 or 2017. That's the good news. The bad news is that, from early 2010 to last summer, the price of materials like neodymium rose by more than a factor of five. A 50 percent reduction is helpful but won't erase that major price bump. Though prices will very likely continue to decrease somewhat, they're unlikely to return to pre-bubble levels.
I think you've raised an excellent point, naperlou, one which applies at least by analogy to several other disconnects. The US ships plastic to be sorted before recycling/parts to be assembled/raw materials to be processed or assembled or refined or something, and then ships the product of all these back here, and then complains about human rights, health, environmental, pollution and/or labor problems, and/or supply disruptions or competition in pricing. While some or all of those complaints may be justified in a general way on the world stage, we often act as if the problems we generate as customers have nothing to do with us, because we depend on these materials or processes but don't want them here.
Yes, Naperlou, that applies to IP violations as well. One of my sources told me China's regulators are reluctant to shut down a plant that is producing knock-offs if the plant is the major employer in a small village and the plant also produces legitimate products.
While there are distinct acvantages to PM motors and generators, they are not the only kind. What about wound-field machines that have been around for >100 years? True, you have to use a little extra power to excite the field, but you gain the ability to vary the field by adjusting the field current.
My point is that even if permanent magnet materials were to diaappear entirely, we would could still be make quite satisfactory machines, especially in the larger sizes.
Short term shortages due to any number of situations, geographical, economic or political must be resolved with traditional methods. I know I'm going out on a limb here, but there are no shortages of many rare earth materials on the Moon.
Before you start rolling your eyes - consider that over the next twenty years an infrastructure for moving materials between Earth and Moon orbits may be established based on Buzz Aldrin's cycler ship concept, making shipments from the Moon downright inexpensive. The first robot miners on the Moon are little more than bulldozers scraping lunar soil off the surface and into launching facilities. Payloads are electromagnetically pushed into lunar orbit, dock with the cycler ship and delivered into Earth orbit. Payload capsules filled with lunar soil are dropped from orbit to processing plants on Earth.
Granted, the start up costs are huge, but they are an investment which could pay dividends for many decades to come. All of the needed technology to build and operate this infrastructure is readily available right now.
The popular concept is that space commercialization means communication satellites and tourism, but I think that mining the Lunar surface is the real first step and we can take those steps in the very near future.
We looked at a number of sources to determine this year's greenest cars, from KBB to automotive trade magazines to environmental organizations. These 14 cars emerged as being great at either stretching fuel or reducing carbon footprint.
Researchers at MIT and Sandia National Labs have observed a reaction in lithium-air batteries that could help improve the design of these cells for electric vehicles and other applications.
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