The demand for service robots is outpacing the growth of industrial robots, says a new study from Freedonia, titled "World Robots to 2016."
The study also found that global demand for robots is growing so fast it's outpacing both the world's overall manufacturing activity and its economy.
That's a mind-boggling claim, but Freedonia expects global demand for robots to rise almost 11 percent per year through 2016. The reasons for this growth rate, and what types of robots are increasing where, depends on the type of machine, whether a country is developed or developing, whether its labor costs are high or low, and the industry or application.
Because of higher labor costs, robots are being used to replace human workers in existing applications in developed countries. But in developing countries, they're more often deployed to carry out difficult and dangerous tasks that people can't do. In those countries, the study found that rising wages mean more human workers will likely be replaced by robots.
Another thing that surprised me was the inclusion of South Korea in the countries that produce the most robots worldwide. Others are more expected: Japan, the US, and Germany. What's not a surprise is the fact that these highly developed countries with well established, sophisticated manufacturing expertise produce most of the sophisticated, high-value industrial robots and medical professional service robots. The smaller, less expensive service robots, and those aimed at consumers, are made mostly in Asian countries with established consumer electronics manufacturing.
Although the production of service robots started ramping up around 2005, industrial robots continue to dominate. These machines are used primarily in the manufacture of motor vehicles -- which is by far the largest segment -- as well as electronics/electrical products and chemicals, including rubber and plastics, and pharmaceuticals and cosmetics. Other major application areas are food and beverage manufacturing, industrial machinery, and metal processing.
Industrial robots carry out a number of different functions, mostly material handling and welding/soldering, which are key operations in motor vehicle manufacturing. Other general functions are assembly and disassembly, processing, and dispensing, including painting.
Freedonia predicts that demand for industrial robots will increase steadily in motor vehicle manufacturing, as the industry becomes more automated in China, Thailand, Malaysia, and India. That demand will also continue in developed countries. The fastest gains will occur in electrical/electronic manufacturing, as this industry becomes more automated in the Asia/Pacific region.
By 2021, the study projects, demand for industrial robots will be outweighed by demand for service robots. This will be due to lower costs and more sophisticated robot technology and software, which will broaden their appeal to consumers. In 2011, 73 percent of overall service robot demand was for professional robots, and most service robots will continue to be built for professional applications. The largest category of these will be medical robots, especially in developed countries, followed by milking robots. The single largest product category of personal robots was robot floor cleaners: think Roomba.
The biggest demand for service robots is happening in developed countries and regions, where disposable incomes are high, with the US leading the way. These countries are, of course, also the ones with aging populations, and many medical service robots are aimed at helping to maintain the elderly in their homes. Aside from the US, they include Western Europe and Japan. But China is catching up fast: Demand for service robots there will quadruple through 2016, according to the study.
Solid story, Ann. There certainly are a lot of opportunities for service robots. In manufacturing, I wonder if another factor is the number of robotic mechanisms and arms that are being designed into the machine themselves rather than a robot as a standalone system. Thanks.
Great article Ann...as always. I was wondering exactly what the service bot segment consisted of...you mentioned roombas. I guess roombas, some mow your lawn, but I can't think of many others atm.
Thanks, Cadman-LT. There are tons of service robots, in both professional and personal apps. Professional service bots include medical helpers of various kinds used by physicians or other medical personnel, as we detailed in two different medical robot slideshows (see links at the end of the article). Milking robots are also included there. For personal service bots, aside from vacuum cleaners there are medical helper bots used by patients or other non-professional uses. This slideshow on service bots focuses on profession types, but you can see the apps are pretty broad: http://www.designnews.com/author.asp?section_id=1386&doc_id=257119
Thanks, Cadman-LT. There are tons of service robots, in both professional and personal apps. Professional service bots include medical helpers of various kinds used by physicians or other medical personnel, as we detailed in two different medical robot slideshows (see links at the end of the article). Milking robots are also included there. For personal service bots, aside from vacuum cleaners there are medical helper bots used by patients or other non-professional uses. This slideshow on service bots focuses on profession types, but you can see the apps are pretty broad: http://www.designnews.com/author.asp?section_id=1386&doc_id=257119
TJ, the study said that the sales figures/demand numbers for service robots are segmented primarily by who uses them, and only partially by nature of the machine. Obviously, those categories of machines can overlap considerably, just like other items used in both homes and offices, such as janitorial supplies (brooms, mops, buckets, etc.). The upshot is, no reason you can't use a Roomba in your office. In the other direction, I bought an $800 commercial dehumidifier for my humid, damp forest house because only the commercial models can take enough moisture out of the air, plus I knew it would last a long time.
DN's Cabe Atwell just wrote a blog about telepresence robots for home workers: http://www.designnews.com/author.asp?section_id=1386&doc_id=257159 These are a good example of personal service robots based on a design platform very similar to some professional service robots: the medical telepresence robots used increasingly in hospitals, which DN's Elizabeth Montalbano wrote about here: http://www.designnews.com/document.asp?doc_id=249227
Milking robot systems are amazing. As the price points for milk remain low, it is touger for dairy farmers to stay in business. Deluxe milking robot aytomation systems allow the cow to determine its own milking time which leads to a healthier herd with better milk production.
Well, not really blame them. But the reason for the growth in service robots can be attributed to the baby boomer generation. ANYTHING that has to do with caring for our aging population is going to be a growth industry in the next couple of decades.
I agree with TJ--the growth of many personal service robots is due in part to the baby boomer population bulge. I think the growth in professional service robots is a different story, and it's definitely one that's occurring and going to occur. China is much, much bigger than we are and they are investing in both types like gangbusters. I'll be posting a followup on this report soon.
This bit of news is definitely surprising; but then again, there has been a lot of innovation and investment in service robots as the need for less expensive labor, as well as general interest in new designs, grows. Perhaps this just means the industrial robot space, which is more mature, is due for a bit of flattening while the nascent service-robot market grows. I myself have watched with a bit of wonder at some of the new designs coming out in the latter and look forward to seeing more as this trend develops.
Most service robots are designed for a task where they would normally work only a few hours a week- maybe an hour a day every day except weekends. So you are comparing the cost of ownership/maintenance of a robot against a few hours minimum wage, not full time employment. This is one reason why service robots won't take over in a hurry. Another reason is that while the cost of complex elecronics is rapidly falling, this represents at most 20% the overall cost - the rest is mechanics and plastics, and here raw material costs are rising. SO you will still find it cheaper to pay your neighbours teenage son to mow the lawn once a fortnight than to buy a robotic lawn mower. (assuming - not unreasonably - that they are equally intelligent)
Ann, A trend with industrial robots in use of robot mechanisms as part of the design of the machine, versus a standard configuration that stands alone. The robot mechanism themselves are designed as standard hardware to control multiple axes of motion. Now the trend is designing these mechanisms into line-oriented machines and even controlling them with standard line controllers including support for advanced kinematics (rather than a separate robot controller). This is not really related to the direction of this thread but is another example of how robots is finding new application areas -- especially in manufacturing.
Al, thanks for the clarification. I see what you mean. Since the research firm didn't divulge specific details of the study, it's not clear how they defined physical units of industrial robots.
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