During a government-sponsored autonomous vehicle race a few years ago, engineers noticed a curious phenomenon. The human-driven cars in the race were making mistakes -- blowing past stop signs and failing to use turn signals. In contrast, the robotic vehicles were slow but flawless. Not only did they stop and check for traffic at intersections, but they also yielded to the mistake-prone humans.
"We never saw a robotic vehicle run a stop sign or fail to use turn signals," said Charles Reinholtz, chairman of the mechanical and civil engineering department at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University and a team participant at the event. "They were much more predictable than the humans."
That predictability could be the foundation for a revolution in the transportation industry. Experts say that autonomous vehicles are getting better. Thanks to improvements in sensors, software, and computing power, many experts say there will come a day when our cars will take over the driving chores.
Team Victor Tango, headed by Torc Technologies LLC, took third place in the DARPA Urban Challenge in 2007 using multiple LIDAR sensors atop the vehicle. (Source: Charles Reinholtz, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University)
"The carmakers all have this lofty goal," said Matt Muddiman, manager of systems and applications for MEMS automotive sensors at Freescale Semiconductor. "They want our cars to be able to take us to the grocery store. We'll just jump in the cars, and off we'll go."
Engineers who have built autonomous cars say that's not an unrealistic expectation. In the 2005 DARPA Grand Challenge race for autonomous vehicles, five cars independently traversed the entire 140-mile course, including mountain roads with hairpin turns. In the 2007 Urban Challenge, six more vehicles finished. Moreover, Google's autonomous cars have quietly logged more than 200,000 miles on California roads.
"Today, we can already do it in low-chaos environments," said Alan Taub, vice president of global research and development for General Motors. "If you try to go to Bombay, with very heavy congestion, people not driving in their lanes, and a mixture of pedestrian and vehicle traffic, our ability is limited. On the other hand, if you go to a freeway, where you only have to recognize vehicles and stationary objects, we can do that."
Though some observers might ask why the automotive community is bothering to undertake such a monumental effort, proponents of the technology say there's good reason: Every year, between 30,000 and 40,000 Americans die in traffic accidents. Worse, the opportunity for more fatalities looms ahead, because drivers are increasingly invaded by a bevy of distractions, ranging from cellphones and iPods to GPS systems. "Today, our expectation for airplanes is zero fatalities," Reinholtz said. "We're hoping to do the same for cars."
The question, though, is which insurance? No matter how good the safety systems are, there will still be accidents. A tire will blow, a sensor will fail, a kid will run into the road and the trial lawyers will be set free to go after everybody in the supply chain. I'm not sure I would want to be the company that supplies software for any of these.
Again, to get a picture of this development we should be looking into it over a longer time period. When electronics start to penetrate the cars the development was evidently preparing the path for autonomous vehicles. I did work long ago in the semicondurctor industry and the automotive side of biz grew at tremendous speed. All was was said about the acceptance, of the liability issue and the fail-safe-operation undeniable is true.
Evidently the road into the future had to take a path that prepared the ground, allowed for going through the learning curve, for autonomous vehicles. Driver assisstant systems are the buzz word of the, let´s call it first generation. Small step further came with the automatic parking electronics. All the issues mentioned here applied to that. Than I remember came the question of using autonomous driving in logistic centers were trucks are unloaded and loaded. Here you had a controlled environment with a determined liability frame work.
Next generation we can see in the market today. Those are further improved driver assisstant systems that watch to what the driver is doing and to advise him to react if he is not doing as he should and act by its own when the driver fails. Collision prevention, there is an ad about a french car maker advertizing this function. If the car is about to leave the lane or paveed surface. The roadCruiser keeping the distance from the car in front. The system watching the eyes of the driver to notice when he falls asleep. And finally the developments in the area of traffic assistance, where the dialog between the car to exchange information about traffic. The system watching the streeet ahead to see obstacle or traffic under conditions were the human eye cannot see anything. All this is closely linked to the sensors and the related software development. And the development and the passing of the learning curve takes place in this systems.
Living in Germany with our Atutobahns, here would be an ideal place to start autonomous driving. You have a more controlled environment and a system that is close to its limits in capacity. Just forcing trucks when they enter the autobahn to stay on a reserved lane, drive so close to each other to limit the air resistance would reduce consumption of fuel, protect the environment, reduce an important source for accidents and allow for longer driving times for the drivers, as this could rest while the truck drives and finally the capacity increase of the Autobahn would be tremendous. Next step would be for the normal vehicles. You can see this to analogy with the reserved lane for conmuters with more than one person inside!
I, too, like to hear people's reactions to the idea of the autonomous car, sbauman. The initial reaction is always disbelief. But after that, the reaction is overwhelmingly negative -- most people don't like the loss of control. I agree with you that insurance will have to drive it. If autonomous cars can eliminate 30,000 deaths a year on American roads, it makes sense that the insurance companies would step in.
I agree, btwolfe. I would love to have an autonomous driver cart me around so I could work in the back seat on the way to the office. Of course, it all hinges on the autonomous driver's ability to get me to my destination safely.
@tekochip - I think your argument applies to humans as well... our ability to react is directly affected by our attentiveness. A driver going down the freeway in mental "cruise mode" probably wouldn't notice that debris that's about to fall off the truck in front of them any better than an autonomous driver. I'm sure these systems will eventually evolve to watch for situations like this. However, debris on the road I believe is already a part of the system.
What makes an autonomous driver even more compelling is that it can gather info from other autonomous vehicles further up the road about debris, giving you vehicle more time to react.
I can see it working most of the time, but what about construction zones, roadway debris, the truck that just blew a tire next to you, deer, snow, rain? I'm not saying it can't work, I'm saying that it can only be a high-end cruise control. Most of the time it would be great, but you can't be asleep at the wheel.
I love to hear people's reactions when I tell them about the inevitable arrival of autonomous cars. It is amazing how resistant people are to the idea of giving up that control. But here is the thing that I think will ultimately force the issue: car insurance. Once the near perfect record of autonoumous cars becomes established, insuring them will be dirt cheap. But this is America afterall, so you choose: Pay $30/year for your auto-car, or take the wheel yourself for $3000/year.
Like any parent with a new teenage driver, you're going to be apprehensive at first with this technology, but humans are quick to accept it if it "just works."
I entirely expect that insurance costs will actually push this tech forward. When people are offered significant discounts for hands-off driving, they'll weigh the costs and be motivated towards whatever saves them money.
I personally would love to have a chauffeur. A non-human one is always immediately available. Besides, with people wanting to be "connected" all the time as is evident by the increasingly common texting-while-driving stories, I won't be surprised if the car becomes a mobile hot spot, where we just get in an go. I feel sorry for the taxi drivers though (not really).
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