The old Chinese proverb "May you live in interesting times" is apropos, because the year that's almost behind us has been nothing if not fascinating. Also challenging, worrisome, and tiring.
We all know the deal. We're working more with fewer resources and tighter deadlines. Technologies previously siloed are merging into an interconnected mass, requiring us to become interdisciplinary. And job stability, though better than it was only a scant year ago, still weighs on our minds constantly. (You can see what our readers have to say about that in our Social Engineering column.)
Fortunately, the attraction that drew most of us into the profession in the first place has been in ample evidence this year in the form of fun and forward-looking technologies like energy efficiency, 3D printing, the rise of the digital factor, advanced composites and plastics, and smart sensors.
On a macro basis, the imperative toward tighter, miniaturized designs in medical and consumer electronics has put an additional design burden on engineers tasked with packaging and assembly.
I'd be remiss if I didn't mention electric vehicles. By your online habits, you've told us that those are at the top on your list of must-read stories. I concur. When I test drove a Chevy Volt recently, I was impressed with its fit and finish, as well as its smart application of an internal combustion engine and batteries, all in the service of a car that's a good everyday driver, not just a first-gen tech showpiece.
You can read more about the Volt by going to our DriveforInnovation.com site, which follows EELife editorial director Brian Fuller as he drives a Volt across the United States.
Personally, it's been an honor to be content director of Design News. Since I joined in June, I've spent much of my time meeting with the industry's leading vendors. (I hope to meet the rest of you in 2012. If we haven't connected yet, please contact me at alex.wolfe@ubm.com.) I can say uniformly, and without hesitation, that we've got the smartest cohort of engineers and companies out there.
Yet the challenges we've faced this year are not for the faint of technological heart. Here's my quick take on four of them:
Rise of the digital factory. Here the salient questions are: Is this old wine in new bottles (or PLCs)? Is it a way for high-value vendors to sell consulting and upper-end technology to counter the rise of low-cost direct distribution? Or is it a solid method of helping manufacturers speed up the prototyping through production processes and in doing so become more responsive to the market, thus growing and getting more profitable? The correct answer is, of course, a little bit of all three.
Low-cost 3D printing/prototyping. I always worry when any idiot with a few dollars and delusions of technical grandeur can go out, buy a machine, and call himself an engineer. That's what happened with the PC, and you can arguably draw a line between the kludgey software we now live with and Stuxnet. I hope we'll see 3D printing become an enabler for rapid iteration and more sophisticated products, rather than a tool for producing more superfluous junk.
Energy efficiency. If you had told me two years ago that I would be writing enthusiastically about green technology, I would have yawned. It turns out that there are indeed tipping points in technology, and we've passed the one that's made a powerhouse arena out of saving energy in motors, the rise of wind and solar, and energy harvesting. Another area, which is different but has gone through a similar path from yawner to yes, is safety.
Engineering employment. This is the elephant in the room. America has the best and most experienced group of engineers in the world. Yet many of the older ones have been thrown on the slag heap, on the assumption that an over-40 techie can't possibly keep up with current technology. To that I say, au contraire. It's precisely these mature engineers who are needed to nurture new grads, who may know a workstation but don't have the subjective experience that makes for a successful career. I applaud companies like Siemens that are making concerted efforts to hire US workers, including veterans. I wish everyone would do that. In 2012, I hope insourcing becomes the new outsourcing.
I think naperlou brings up a good point, which is the trend, to whatever extent it's really going on, that's been shifting jobs back to the US, at one time called "onshoring" or "homeshoring" or variations thereof. Although there's been quite a lot of press about it on and off for several years. I don't know how real it is. But over time, I'd guess that the narrowing pay gap, which is a real phenomenon, would be helping to continue it and perhaps even speed it up.
Good points, Naperlou. I hope you're right that they get better results here. I do wonder about this, though, as I read our articles about the shortage of high school kids willing to pursue engineering paths. If our immigration policies continue to allow companies like Microsoft to bring in loads of non-critical people with H1B visas, why are we sounding the alarm at our engineering schools? If we load up our engineering schools under current immigration policies, will our U.S.-educated engineering students be able to get jobs?
Charles, your point is well taken. I think the employment and underemployment issue is a result of imigration policy. I did some research on H1B visa applications a few years back. I was about to do a contract for an Indian software services firm. What I found was dissiapointsing in the extreme. I looked specifically at Microsoft. They were the largest user of H1B visas that year. None of the jobs I saw were either critical skills or in short supply in the USA. In fact, I found some applicaitons for purchasing agents. The other issue we need to look at is underemployment of engineers in the US. This is especially true of older engineers who have to retire early, or who loose jobs prior to retirement. A study that I saw many years ago, while I was a manager at General Electric, showed that patent production was about as high at the later stage of a career as at the begining. The study showed that mid-career people are more worried about position and advancement, perhaps family, than being creative. Thus, the trend toward early retirements has many undesireable consequences. First,our funding assumptions for retirement do not take into account the longevity. Second, we throw away a large talent pool at a time when they would be even more productive.
Finally, one interesting data point that might bring a little cheer to the discussion. One large company I talked to that has labs all over the world indicated that they have tended to bring the "creative" work back to the USA. What they find is that the pay differential is narrowing and when there is not that inducement to move the work overseas, they get better results here.
In light of globalization, it's like rare than any one particular product can tout all made in the USA or all made in any particular region. Dispersed supply chains mean components are sourced from all over and just because something is assembled on US soil doesn't mean it's all American-made product.
Yes, it's not black and what at all, Beth. It's hard to tell what an American product is these days. Japanese car makers are all over the South, employing American workers. Their shares are scattered through American 401K plans. Meanwhile, American consumer electronics companies are manufacturing their goods in Asia and employing fewer and fewer American workers. At this point, Toyota may be more American than Motorola.
I agree that the American public should demand more domestically-built products. But perhaps it's not such a black and white tradeoff between pushing for environmentally-friendly products and policies and promoting products designed and manufactured in the good old USA.
Ann, there is no incentive to hire or build domestic until we, as consumers demand it. In less than 3 weeks we will no longer have the ability to buy 100 watt incandecsant lights. Argue which ever way you want about the wisdom or folly of the ban, have you seen one of those curly Q's made anywhere other than China? Have you heard a hue and cry from consumers demanding US curly Q's? I'll wager the answer is no. Instead we get ridiculous arguements about what light is better for saving polar bears. Our kids come home crying because their teacher has told them the whole planet is going to die if we do not use the right bulb, while we sit silently by and watch an entire industry disappear.
What CEO in his right mind would stand in front of a board of directors and demand that they continue to produce something that is the subject of mob hysteria? So they wring their hands while sending product lines overseas while some where a collection of tree huggers can congratulate themselves on doing their part in saving mother earth. This same mentality is happening over and over. Government mandate interfers so dramatically with industry that we have almost forgotten when things happened because they were a good idea, not some nebulous pipe dream of a political group. Do you remember when a business had to get bank financing rather than government grants? If I sound cynical it is because I am.
No I do not want to return to high sulphur coal or other such things, so please do not throw that at me. I just want people to demand quality goods made in the USA so my kids will have a chance at my life.
Alex, that's a very heartening article. And it reminds me of the supposed onshoring trend of a few years back for keeping manufacturing jobs here instead of sending them offshore, although I don't think that was in engineering.
If so many executives want to hire American, what's preventing them from doing so?
Good comment, Tool_maker. One thing I'll tell you which I find interesting is that most executives in our industy with whom I've talked WANT to invest in U.S. manufacturing and infrastructure. See this article from July: "Will US Manufacturing Rebound Continue?" I think there is a very slow renaissance/reinvestment in the U.S., which perhaps we won't see until we have the benefit of a little more hindsight. At the same time, there's definitely a corporate reluctance to invest heavily, which stems from uncertainty about the economy.
Alex you have written an excellent article, with many salient comments, however I would like to add one. Unless we are able to restore manufacturing jobs to the US, all of the other things are irrelevant.
In 1990 I was employed by a subsidiary of a Fortune 100 corporation. They were continually expanding, but never with brick and mortar. Only acqusition, followed by consolidation, plant closing and layoff. They sent thousands of jobs to Mexico and seemed to take a particular delight in eliminating union jobs. In a rash moment of foolishness I had the gall to question one of the engineers from corporate headquarters about the wisdom of this. (Titles were very big and important in this place, but I do not remember his title, but he was a much higher pay grade than me.)
At the time I was told there were tax advantages and even though the quality was less and the deliveries poor that would all pick up with experience, because these were unskilled work. When I asked if he was fearful of engineering functions following the production he laughed and said that could never happen. Today we know better.
I do not know how to reverse the trend, but as I said at the outset, without the return of manufacturing, nothing else will matter.
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