Government subsidies also have played a role, according to analysts. Nissan and Tesla were awarded nearly $2 billion between them from the Department of Energy's Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing loan program to build electric vehicles. Many other companies, including EV battery makers, have also received subsidies. "On the surface, it appears to be a huge risk to roll out these vehicles that people might not buy," See said. "But in many cases, a lot of the cost and risk has been subsidized by the government."
Moreover, the appearance of risk may not be as great as it first seems, at least for some automakers. Experts say pure electric cars can be much easier to manufacture than hybrids. "If you look at the Ford operation in Wayne [Mich.], they can do four different kinds of powertrains: conventional engines, plug-in hybrids, conventional hybrids, and electrics," David Cole, chairman emeritus of the Center for Automotive Research, told us. "EV technology is a walk in the park compared to hybrids. You just have to build flexibility into your manufacturing systems."
Still, the road to EV sales success is a hard one. Sales of the most prominent pure electric car available today, the Nissan Leaf, totaled just 8,720 units for the first 11 months of this year, according to plugincars.com, despite company projections that it would sell 500,000 EVs a year by the end of 2013. A Wall Street Journal report this year (subscription required) indicated that Nissan was sticking with its plan to sell 1.5 million EVs cumulatively by 2016, "in part due to demands by major cities for zero-emission taxis."
That's why Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn has predicted pure EVs will make up 10 percent of the market by 2020. And, as we reported this summer, Tesla CEO Elon Musk took Ghosn's prediction up another notch by saying he believes half of all cars on the road will be pure electric ones in 15 years.
However, industry analysts say much of the auto industry doesn't share the rosy views of Nissan and Tesla. Cole chaired a session at the recent Battery Show Conference in Novi, Mich., and he said automakers expressed concerns at the conference about the state of EV batteries. The sesison was "an opportunity for the automakers to tell the battery guys what the reality is," Cole said. "Right now, the battery is still a killer for them."
Analysts also say the automakers building compliance cars want to be ready if battery technology makes a sudden leap forward. Until then, they're treading lightly. "The bottom line is that the technology is not a slam dunk," See said. "That's why they need to keep looking for the innovation that could make it happen."
There is a serious, well based study published in "ISSUES in Science and Technology" by the "National Academy of Sciences", "National Academy of Engineering" and the "Institute of Medicine, University of Texas at Dallas", that shows that purely Electric vehicles actually produce MORE emissions when their complete life-cycle emissions are considered, compared to Hybrids. http://www.issues.org/28.4/p_michalek.html
The problem is that ignorant, mis-informed politicians (specially those with so called "Ecological" viewpoints) make whatever it takes to impose whatever they (blindly) believe, in order to promote what they guess are "green" alternatives. Just from a purely scientific and technical viewpoint, having to build, activate and carry a heavy, inefficiently recharged large battery all along the road, and then having to dispose of it; is not as smart, notwithstanding how deep is the "greenish" tint of the politician sunglasses.
I'm patiently waiting to see the face of our former City Major (he stepped down yesterday), when he realizes that He will soon need to replace the very expensive battery of his Nissan Leaf. He ordered a fleet of Leaf taxies for Mexico City, and drivers are finding those barely endure their distance ratings, and are slower than predicted, barely handling the aggresive traffic of the city.
tekochip, you are exactly correct. I read an article in IEEE Spectrum some time ago that lays this situation out exactly. The author was hired into a company as a VP or R&D. He was working on a product and well into the development he decided it was not going to be a success. He went to his boss to suggest they can the project. He was told no! The first version of the product needed to be in the market almost as a placeholder. The real money would be made on future versions, but if they weren't in the market they would not be taken seriously when it finally took off.
Electric vehicles are the same thing. California required them several years ago. That was before the global warming scare but during a period of tight gasoline supplies and high prices. It was not successful. The compliance vehicles built then were not very good, but the companies complied, and they gained some knowledge of the issues with these vehicles. I see the same situation with the large makers at this time.
Tesla, of course, is another story altogether. They are a car company built around the pure electric vehicle. They have a plan, which they are executing well, to start with higher end cars, which are basically novelties, and to then move into mass market vehicles as the technology progresses.
The most valid point is that you want to be doing your development work when your competitors are doing their development work. It would be disastrous to start development on a new technology after your competitor already has a product in the marketplace.
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