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Which Will Capture the Market First -- Autonomous Cars or Electrics?

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Jerry dycus
User Rank
Gold
lux again
Jerry dycus   9/8/2016 8:49:04 AM
They start with a question that has only 1 answer obviously is EVs will be way ahead for the simple reason sdc will be EV, can never equal all EVs which by diffinition, has to be more. I don't think sdc will be as big as thought, mostly for taxi service. As this will still cost a lot more than owning a low cost lightweight EV. My 800lb EV pickup and cargo, boat trailer only costs $.05/mile. I bet sdc taxis costs are closer to 10x that much. And you can't haul a house worth of construction materials, boat, etc with a sdc anyway.

scottv
User Rank
Iron
Re: lux again
scottv   9/8/2016 1:49:42 PM
Not so fast. Consider that most municipalities rely on revenue from motor vehicle violation fines. Many of those speeding, careless driving and traffic signal tickets will go away with automomous vehicles taking to the streets. Auto Body Shops will suffer, traffic fatalities will decline. Follow the money.  Electric vehicles mean no dripping engine & transmission oil pans, power steering pumps and radiators polluting our waterways.  Electric vehicles 1st, autonomous cars much later.

William K.
User Rank
Gold
Re: lux again
William K.   9/14/2016 1:04:01 PM
Scottv has brought up another very interesting area of the discusion, which is traffic laws. As all who have traveled through Chicago on any of the expessways or tollways knows, no traffic runs at the posted speeds. If the posted speed is 55 MPH then mostly traffic is flowing at over 65MPH in the slower lanes. And MUCH faster in the speed lanes. Next, if the computer system chooses to hold the recommended spacing the roads will need more lanes. Of course it is also possible that the traffic could flow without the constant run-up then jam-on-the-brakes that it tends to do when crowding reaches a certain level.  My personal choice would be to get those drivers off the roads, but given that driving is treated like a right, not a privalege, that will not happen.

So we can be prepared for much slower commutes because of the computer driven cars following every neurotic safety rule intended to cover every worst case situation. I would really like to see an accurate computer simulation using real world traffic loadings on the roads.

ferd
User Rank
Platinum
my vote
ferd   9/15/2016 12:50:15 PM
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Between autonomous cars or electrics, I think electrics will capture the market first.  Both require a shift in public perception, but it will be much harder to get people to trust autonomous driving over their own driving than it will be to get people to accept electricity in place of petroleum.  At least for the electrics that are not autonomous.

Previous comments also bring up good points:  potential computer glitches, liability, and infrastructure / population density concerns.  Autonomous vehicle networks suffer the same practical problems that limit bus line service – eventually it costs too much to collect far-flung passengers.  People who live outside of downtown are already used to operating individual vehicles.

Note that I'm not trying to build a case for electric vehicles here – just stating why I feel they will capture more market (and sooner) than autonomous vehicles.

DNReader
User Rank
Silver
Why one or the other?
DNReader   9/8/2016 10:52:16 AM
Why not both?

CharlesM
User Rank
Gold
False choice
CharlesM   9/8/2016 11:00:17 AM
This is not an either/or. You can have both and indeed my guess is that it makes no sense to consider autonomous cars that are not fully electrified. Costs saved by ride sharing, if that's how autonomous cars will work, would pay for fully electrifying the whole car and Tesla is way ahead of all other car makers. Why would you do it any other way?

Besides, the technical and social barriers to autonomous cars are unsettled and far-reaching. Those for EVs have been solved and costs for their mass adoption are practically at hand, certainly well within 5 years.

William K.
User Rank
Gold
Re: False choice: Indeed!
William K.   9/9/2016 9:41:15 AM
Realy, the best choice will be for the self driving cars to be electrics, possibly hybrid but certainly electric. But the pictures of the vehicle with no driver controls is probably a fiction, because there is simply no way that a computer can be programmed to handle all of the exceptions that arrive in driving. 

Of course the real challenge and major barrier to the self driving car has not been solved, which is an actual definition of excatly who is responsible when the inevitable collisions, injuries, and deaths, happen. And we know that they will, although a lot of folks seem to believe that the controls for the cars will never make an error. Those of us with an adequate grasp on reality are fully aware that bugs do appear, especially in huge stacks of code created by teams of hundreds of programmers all working under tight deadlines. And mass-produced computer systems optimized for minimum product cost will always be subject to unexpected failure modes.

Noplace do I see much discussion about the large amount of presently non-proliferated infrastructure needed to support these vehicles, nor much commenting about the price and who will pay for it all. It seems that a lot of folks believe in some sort of "magic money machine" to somehow cover that cost.

But it will certainly be interesting to see how this adventure plays out.

CharlesM
User Rank
Gold
Re: False choice: Indeed!
CharlesM   9/9/2016 10:31:06 AM
Yes. People won't easily relinquish control to machines that will inevitably result in deaths, even for replacing human drivers who have a much worse safety record. Our highway death toll is still quite high, but making improvements is hardest on the social and political sides.

William K.
User Rank
Gold
Re: False choice: Indeed!
William K.   9/9/2016 6:15:03 PM
CM is indeed right. And, relative to folks not choosing to let a computer drive the car, recall thge BSoD (Blue Screen of DEath) from just a few years back? And the fact that even the current microsopht brand OS has a number of bugs. While an OS on a PC having bugs can be quite a pain it is very seldom fatal. Bugs in an automobile OS can have much worse results. Just consider that recent Tesla crash into the truck that it didn't see. It certainly does not make me want to hand over driving to a computer.

Cliff Goudey
User Rank
Platinum
When EVs can compete?
Cliff Goudey   9/9/2016 9:01:31 AM
We read, "Most analysts predict that 50% market penetration will occur in the decade of the 2030s, when batteries will be able to compete favorably against internal combustion engines."  Are these analysts blind?  EV's already out-perform ICE or hybrid models in every meaningful way. 

I see the arguments for autonomous cars being weak except in a ride-sharing or taxi mode.  Driverless vehicles will advance first in the long-haul trucking sector where the goal is delivering goods not people.

patb2009
User Rank
Platinum
charles seems positve on EVs
patb2009   9/12/2016 11:17:14 AM
A few years back he seemed very skeptical...


Any particular change?

William K.
User Rank
Gold
Re: charles seems positve on EVs
William K.   9/15/2016 7:28:27 PM
A few years back I was indeed very skeptical. Now I am just fairly skeptical.  As facts change a person is able to alter their opinion. Unchangeability is for statues and concrete constructions.

patb2009
User Rank
Platinum
Re: charles seems positve on EVs
patb2009   9/15/2016 10:49:16 PM
NO RATINGS
Charles

 

So what do you think about the Chevy Bolt and Tesla Model III?  

 

 

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