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See How Electric Vehicle Sales Stalled in 2015

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dmorgan
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EV sales
dmorgan   1/28/2016 8:31:13 AM
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Doesn't really surprise me. This has been the case since the early '70's. When the price of gas goes up or supply dwindles, people go looking for alternative fuel sources. Amazingly, the gas prices go down or a big oil strike is announced, alternative fuels become the reheaded stepchild. Has happened every time! Big oil/Big government doen't want to change the system.

DNReader
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Iron
Re: EV sales
DNReader   1/28/2016 10:58:56 AM
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Yea really I'm waiting for SUV sales to go through the roof soon. I live in NC where we have fairly high gas tax, but there are some stations near me selling diesel for less than $1.90

Jetero
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Bronze
Re: EV sales
Jetero   1/30/2016 9:01:13 AM
I always get in trouble with this comment!! But it ls looking like I am right!

EVs ARE NOTHING BUT GIMMICKS!

J. Williams
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Platinum
Re: EV sales
J. Williams   2/1/2016 11:10:59 AM
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No, not really.  It's just that electric vehicles are only able to supply a market niche to satisfy those who lifestyle is compatible with an EV.  The reason sales are stalled is simply the market has been saturated.  I certainly could not justify the purchase of an EV.  I cannot afford to buy two cars where one will do the job quite nicely.

shehan
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Gold
Re: EV sales
shehan   1/31/2016 1:41:48 PM
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@DNReader- I think it's because of the oil price reduction. I wish these cars could have done some extra mileage. 

shehan
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Gold
Re: EV sales
shehan   1/31/2016 1:22:28 PM
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I don't see how these cells could help us unless there is a way to recharge these. 

shehan
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Gold
Re: EV sales
shehan   1/31/2016 1:26:43 PM
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Car sales always go hand in hand with the fuel cost and it works the same for Electric Vehicles. When fuel prices rise EV sales rise and Vice-versa. 

Jerry dycus
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EV sales
Jerry dycus   1/28/2016 8:43:21 AM
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It  would be far more accurate  to say sales of EV's about to be replaced by longer range better models dropped.

Vs those that are newer or continuously updated sales increased.

By far the biggest prolem in EV sales are dealers, salepeople who won't sell them unless forced and sometimes not even then.

And why Tesla does so well as the salespeople want to sell them and they make the best car in the world most gas car magazine writer/experts agree doesn't hurt . 

So if you want to sell EV's make a compelling one sold by people proud of it and know what they are doing.

Now if they will start building stronger than steel, alum composite body/chassis lightweight EV's that cost far less or double the EV range on the same pack, gas cars will just              go away.

They just allowed companies to build 325 'old looking cars' /yr without the normal regulations should be real interesting.    Think of an all composite body/chassis 2k lb 400 mile range 63 split window Vette looking EV with 600hp peak!!!  

shehan
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Gold
Re: EV sales
shehan   1/31/2016 1:39:31 PM
@Jerry – Tesla is an awesome car, people don't feel like they are driving an EV they feel they are in a sports car. That's the perception created from the beginning. 

CharlesM
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Gold
Several reasons
CharlesM   1/28/2016 2:19:55 PM
The first two comments offer good reasons. People have short memories about the pain and specter of high gas prices. Consumers received a much needed de facto stimulus in 2015 from cheap gas, yet many are squandering it by trading to relative gas guzzlers.

Also, many if not most Chevy and Nissan dealers know and care little about the Volt and LEAF models they sell. You would think that situation has improved in the 5 years since those models have been on the market, but that doesn't seem to be the case.

Finally, I'll offer my own contributing factor. Many states, for whatever reasons, have rescinded local tax credits and rebates for EVs, and some have even enacted new special taxes on EVs because their legislatures are too ideological or dysfunctional to adequately fund infrastructure. Georgia is such a state. Never mind that there are not enough EVs on the road to contribute anything significant to those funds, or that passenger cars weighing less than 3 tons contribute almost no wear to roads (and produce little air pollution that puts a drag on their economies).

The good news is that EVs are here to stay. 5 years ago there was a chance that lack of sales success, or GM's bankruptcy, would lead to an end of their production, and the masses thought of EVs as glorified golf carts. Now, however, the public knows the most coveted and satisfying cars on the market are EVs sold by Tesla. It's only a matter of time, and I would guess far less than another 5 years, before several EV models meet the range and price point desired by the general public.

You no longer have to sell EVs on the basis of fuel cost and saving polar bears. They can be sold on quality of user experience and their very low total operational costs and maintenance needs.

Laguna_b
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Gold
Mix is adapting
Laguna_b   1/28/2016 3:18:59 PM
Until last week we had 1 - Toyota Rav4 EV (mine), 1 - Ford Focus EV (partner) 1- Prius (gas back up)

What we resolved was to turn in Ford Focus EV at end of lease and eventually selling Prius and getting a Volt. The reasons are simple. We need one limitless vehicle, love electric drive.

New PHEVs that run 100% electric due to reasonable EV range, essentially use a couple gallons of gas as "reserve" eliminating range anxiety, while extending range when needed.

The Volt drives like an EV (although not as peppy as most). Maintenance should come close to an EV, especially if the engine rarely runs.

Addtionally, we then do not need a third vehicle.

I see this model as the way of the future until longer range, fast charging EVs are affordable. Perhaps the Bolt will make that leap for many.


Frankly, after driving an EV for a while, the idea of going back to a gas car would be like going back to Windows after switching to OSX....  require a lot of pain, unpleasant and lots of maintenance and costs.

PS - One more thing....since partner is driving the Prius again, he experienced sticker shock when refilling the gas even at $2.60/gal. We were used to essentially FREE fuel.

patb2009
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Platinum
Re: Mix is adapting
patb2009   1/28/2016 11:00:46 PM
I have to reiterate the points above...

 

1) The two biggest sellers Volt and Leaf were undergoing planned refresh,

so the sales lagged as people waited for the new ones.

 

2) I have a chevy volt, nicest car i've ever owned, there will be more of these.

 

With the Bolt, the new Leaf, the Mercedes B Class, VW E-Golf, etc, the market is

getting a decent spectrum of plug ins and EVs, and everyone has a Hybrid....

 

The smooth driving and the rising technology makes an EV a better car.

 

Plus after a year of driving electric, i find i hate gas stations.

CharlesM
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Gold
Re: Mix is adapting
CharlesM   1/29/2016 10:07:41 AM
Laguna_b, is your Volt a 2016? They're supposed to be very quick off the line, though it's hard for me to imagine anyone complaining about the quickness of Gen 1 in Sport mode.

patb2009, I completely overlooked the staleness of those models. You're quite right. You can get a bigger battery LEAF now or soon(?) and the Gen 2 Volt still is not available for anyone but the 11 compliance states and won't be until they make it a 2017 MY, supposedly sometime this spring. Given its myriad improvements and lower price, not many are eager to shop for the remaining 2015s.  I too would have a hard time letting go of my '14, though. Reliability and QC on it have been virtually perfect.

Laguna_b
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Gold
Re: Mix is adapting
Laguna_b   1/29/2016 10:55:40 AM
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The Volt WILL be a 2016 once we know what the best mileage to lease is based on expected usage. My acceleration comments were based on comparison with my Tesla equipped RAV4  EV and Ford Focus EV.  Everything is relative and I am ok with the accelerationwhen compared to most cars. I am not sure I tried the sport mode on the Volt.

CharlesM
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Gold
Re: Mix is adapting
CharlesM   1/29/2016 11:10:22 AM
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Sport mode + Low = Poor man's Tesla

FinnickyFinn
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Platinum
Re: Mix is adapting
FinnickyFinn   1/30/2016 7:56:16 AM
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How do you get free fuel with an EV? Are you charging only at the free charge stations?

Jerry dycus
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Gold
Re: Mix is adapting
Jerry dycus   1/30/2016 8:40:30 AM
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Finn, it's not really free but only 10-20% of the cost depending where you live so it feels like it.

EV's at 80 mile range covers most people's needs aqs few drive more than 40 miles/day.

And they cost the same as similar class high tech gas cars.  Just because they are great energy savers doesn't make them economy cars.

If you want low cost buy one off lease at $10k-$14k.

Even new they cost little leasing that driving 40 miles/day makes it as cheap as most economy cars.

 

FinnickyFinn
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Platinum
Re: Mix is adapting
FinnickyFinn   1/30/2016 10:28:46 AM
Leasing is something for people who have no money or too much money. I favor buying and keeping until repair cost are increasing. I currently drive a 14 year old car and will look for a replacement once I get to 60k total mileage...yes, I drive that few miles each day. I would use a bike if it wasn't for the hills, the major highway...and my bad shape. At 60k-ish I look at replacing belts and other major parts and I rather leave that to someone else.

As far as electricity, without the means of generating my own electricity either through solar panels or wind I'd be stuck with the offers from the regional suppliers and they are not that great. I also wonder if EVs are as notorious in having an empty battery as all the tablets and phones I have. With a gasoline car I can tramp to the next gas station and get a gallon of fuel, hard to do that with an EV on a road in the armpit of nowhere.

Jerry dycus
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Gold
Re: Mix is adapting
Jerry dycus   1/30/2016 10:47:26 AM
Too funny Finn!!    If you did the same, keeping them for 14 yrs, EV's are by far lower cost simply from gas and maintaining costs will easily cover the EV purchase cost. Can your economy car do that?

Your other comments shows how little you know about car batteries. An EV stays plugged in most of the time so unless you are not bright, it always has a full charge.

Other than some early Leaf batteries in hot weather because it doesn't have battery cooling, EV batteries are lasting very well, far better than hoped.

And fast charging is spreading fast which in a few yrs will just take 15 minutes.

And I've been charging at gas stations for 22 yrs now making that point moot.

Admit you know next to nothing about EV's, as your post shows so well.

 

FinnickyFinn
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Platinum
Re: Mix is adapting
FinnickyFinn   1/30/2016 11:18:19 AM
I'm posting my view...no need to call me stupid. In my case the car would sit on a parking lot most of the day, no means to plug it in anywhere. As far as maintenance costs go, it is different but not less significant for an EV compared to a gas powered car. In all the cars I had so far very few mechanical failures occurred, if something broke it was electrical.

Over the 14 years I spent about 12k on buying the car (five door hatchback manual shift) and less than that on fixing it including routine maintenance. I fill up every three weeks or even less often, even at high gas prices it was barely more than 30$ a fill. So how does that compare to an EV? If there is an EV that can beat that I buy one.

Jerry dycus
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Gold
Re: Mix is adapting
Jerry dycus   1/30/2016 11:36:25 AM
Finn, ignorant is more like it but not having a clue and then telling others they are wrong isn't very good and just makes you look bad.

If you don't know, ask instead.

While it might sit in a parking lot most of the day it'll be at home plugged in and most can charge at work if they ask. You only need a 120vac outlet.

It's not like electricity isn't everywhere, far more than gas stations.

If you do the math most likely even in your case EV's will be cheaper as there are multiple ones selling under $20k in many places out the door.

And your $12k car likely costs $18k+ now so let's use current prices comparing new to new.

Since you are using a used car as an example a much lower cost used EV would be more accurate.

Especially Leaf's are being discounted as a new model is coming out soon.

 

FinnickyFinn
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Platinum
Re: Mix is adapting
FinnickyFinn   1/30/2016 1:03:10 PM
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Electricity is commonplace, but not free for the taking with some exceptions. As far as purchase cost goes,  I checked the various online tools (Autotrader, etc) for my area and there are three Leafs for sale: brand new for 36,340 before tax and fees, used 2013 model with 20k miles for 14k, and a 2012 with 35k miles for 12k.All sites show the same three offers from one dealer.

As you know, the Leaf clearly does not compare to a 5 door hatchback. So I'd need something bigger and searches for anything non-gasoline in my region with a 100 mile radius turned up one used Ford C-Max which is a hybrid. Maybe it is a regional thing, but the market around here even including larger cities does not seem to offer anything suitable. I have a hard time finding a EV hatchback/wagon anyway except for the high price luxury models that I cannot afford. A gasoline powered vehicle in that class comes from various manufacturers and clocks in at around 16k MSRP new.

As far as cost for electricity, this is what I currently pay which is long term the lowest rate in the region (there are these 6 month super cheap deals with a 3 year contract that in the end costs way more). These rates do not include any cable facility fees, taxes, or whatever other stuff they slap on it. That I have to pay anyway for the residential service, EV or not:
Customer Charge $4.00/month
Distribution Charge
     First 600 kWh*
     Excess of 600 kWh*

3.977¢/kWh
4.639¢/kWh
Transmission Charge 2.614¢/kWh
Transition Charge (0.164¢)/kWh
Energy Efficiency Charge 1.624¢/kWh
Renewables Charge 0.050¢/kWh

I drive 15 miles per day on average (would be 5 days of 15 miles, but counting the weekend as well will cover any extra trips). Since you beg me to ask, you do the math as to how much it would cost me per year. It better be significantly below the ~360$ I spent on gasoline (30$ each 4 weeks).

Jerry dycus
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Gold
Re: Mix is adapting
Jerry dycus   1/30/2016 2:44:13 PM
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IIRC the Leaf is a 5 door, 5 seat  hatchback depending on what you call a hatchback.  To me they, CUV's, etc that are 2 box,  don't have trunks, are all station wagons, which I like too.

Apparently you are in an area that has no Nissan dealers that want to sell EV's.  It is a huge problem when the dealers dislike EV's as no maintaining, repairs, engine system parts sales and they don't want to take the time to educate people like you, if they even know how.

Other than Tesla it has likely cut sales by 50% as many EV buyers have to force a dealer to sell.

You quoted the list price no one pays. Nor did you include the $7500 tax credit.  Many are selling with $8k discounts plus the tax credit.  It's why they are so cheap used as their out the door cost is so low.  They have ways to get you the tax credit even if you can't use it.

 My price was for out the door, not list. And I'd bet they will give you a lot off that. Though it sounds like they are pricing them high to discouage sales sadly.

Though those prices will drop greatly in a few yrs as a Leaf only costs them about $17-18k to make and the 200 mile Bolt comes out at $30k fter tax credit.

Nor did you include gas price increases back above $$3.50-4/gal that you paid until recently and will again soon. Gasoline prices will triple over the next 14 yrs you need to count. Enjoy it while you can as next yr will be back over $3 US average.

Nice low electric prices .

 

FinnickyFinn
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Platinum
Re: Mix is adapting
FinnickyFinn   1/30/2016 3:02:18 PM
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Right now I pay around 20$ for a fill, the 30$ I quoted are from the time when prices were higher. As far as dealers not wanting to sell EVs, I think it is more than manufacturers do not want to sell EVs. The sole reason why they add EVs to their lineup is not popular demand, but an effective means to skew the EPA fleet mileage arithmetic. Cheap to build gas guzzling SUVs make way more profit than an EV, so for every boat they want to sell they have to counter that with an EV. The change needed here is to make the EPA consumption limits per model and not across all offered models.

When I think hatchback I think wagon of the kind where I can stuff a sheet of plywood in the back and close the door. I have a house and a large garden, so I need some reasonable amount of cargo room. Unfortunately, many newer models have pathetic trunks unless I look at SUVs or minivans...which are too expensive and consume too much.

Nice to know that electricity rates are low, usually everything from taxes to housing is higher here...except for salaries. So, would a Leaf be less expensive to operate per year given my driving compared to a gas powered car @ 29 mpg (that is what I would be looking at)?

Trenth
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Platinum
Re: 5.3T$ in gov breaks for fossils makes an tiled market
Trenth   1/30/2016 3:38:30 PM
According the IMF the world's gov give fossils breaks worth 5.3T$. That doesn't even include the wars to secure the world's access to oil and gas.

Now we have an economic war using fossils going on, with the Saudis trying to drive out the competition with lower prices and Russia trying to capture markets.

Many people are getting lifetimes MPG on their electric vehicles well over 100 MPG. Battery prices have dropped several times. I haven't seen the analysis, but I bet electric cars are still cheaper.

This is why we need to tax fossils, not carbon, but fossils for their excess carbon. Otherwise if the market goes renewable, the fossil producers will drop their prices and cut corners on production, both of which are bad for our health. Of course we could just stop propping up fossils. I imagine cutting 5.3T$ in gov breaks would be enough.

Unfortunately the monopoly power of fossils is immense and they are flexing it.

FinnickyFinn
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Platinum
Re: 5.3T$ in gov breaks for fossils makes an tiled market
FinnickyFinn   1/30/2016 4:47:28 PM
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One could agree if it wasn't for the rare earth metals needed for batteries that are mined by child laborers under dangerous and unhealthy conditions and typically traded by African warlords to smelters in China. And who knows how much blood and dirt is in the electric power we consume or in the solar panels or the parts for wind turbines.

I fully agree that especially now with oil prices that low the taxes need to be increased. We managed with 4.50$ a gallon before. But that extra money needs to be tied exclusively to sustainable infrastructure projects, such as improving the power distribution grid, regional and long distance rail links, etc

Trenth
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Platinum
You can't blame electric vehicles for mining atrocities in Africa.
Trenth   1/31/2016 12:49:31 PM
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Everything electric cars use is used in much greater quantities in other industries.
The Tesla S uses no rare earths in the motor or the batteries.  

If we want to solve the problem of human rights violations in the suppliers of our 
materials we need a "Fair Trade" agreement that applies tariffs based on the
human rights treatment of the workers. I'm all for that. That's not the TPP.

I would add that our human rights violation for oil and gas are far greater.  


search tesla no rare earth motor
 


Jerry dycus
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Gold
Re: Mix is adapting
Jerry dycus   1/30/2016 8:37:04 PM
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Yes easily the Leaf will be cheaper to run especially with your electric rates.  For the same energy a Leaf will go about 130 miles and costs about $2.50/gal equivalent. Many utilities give special off peak rates to charge EV's overnight cutting that in half.

And maintaining is only replacing wiper blades, washing fluid and rotate the tires.

On my EV's I tow a trailer to carry plywood, etc..  Hopefully we'll get a better range of EV's though a used RAV4EV might be good for you if you can find one.

And a Tesla rumor is they will show a Pickup or CUV when they introduce the 3 in March on the same chassis.

As EV's are ramping up much faster than hybrids even if dealers don't want them proves they are popular. And few who drive them for a while, go back to gas cars.

And look at Tesla that has never had to advertise even at that cost they sell more than they can make. That is what happens if they like EV's.

 

Laguna_b
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Gold
Re: Mix is adapting
Laguna_b   1/30/2016 11:52:19 AM
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Once I switched from PGE TOU rates which were tiered, to EV rate which is not, but heavily biased to off peak, I was able to charge 2 EVs and have my bill unchanged. 10c/KWHr off peak rates power now my EVs , Spa, dishwasher, and clothes washer. 

If you know anything about the grid you know there is vast surpluss power at very low prices  off peak.Too bad I don't have a direct line w/o PGE since they pay about 3-4c

When I drive to SF for cnferences and park near Moscone, I park in a garage that has free charging, just pay parking charges.

So, every time you buy gas, think about it as an avoided cost with an EV. Brakes? 300k miles per set (regenerative braking), oil changes? anti-freeze? and MOST electrical problems are actually caused by the extreme heat of wasted energy exausted by an old oil burner.... all avoided costs.

RAV4 EVs from 2000 using NiMH batteries are still on the road and still have thier ranges.

FinnickyFinn
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Platinum
Cost
FinnickyFinn   1/30/2016 8:00:39 AM
Not a surprise. An EV is best suited for those who do not drive a lot and if they do only short distances. I fall into that category, but an EV of the size I'd need (these superultracompact cars don't cut it) costs at least twice as much as its gas only cousins. Gas needs to cost tremendously more for that to become a better option. I also would need to invest into electrical installations at home so that I can charge the car.

I like the idea of an EV, but they remain cost prohibitive...and I am not entirely convinced that they are better for the environment overall.

connectr
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Silver
Electric Vehicle Sales Stalled
connectr   1/30/2016 11:48:02 AM
It is like some many things; the devil is in the details. Tesla sold more cars in 2015 than in 2014, because they made more of them. Nissan and Chevrolet have to get past the idea that any old design, if powered by batteries, will sell. The Tesla's are good looking and ride well, not so the Leaf or the Volt. Ugly and with a poor ride.

'tis a pity that electric cars in general are being blamed, when poor design is more likely the cause.

William K.
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Platinum
Reduced incentives causing reduced sales?
William K.   1/30/2016 12:56:14 PM
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I wonder if any of the drop in sales has been caused by a reduction in incentives. I have not investigated this, but it does seem like a possible cause. 

One other thing is that there has been some concern about the life of batteries and the replacement costs, and a lot of folks deciding to wait and see how it actually goes. I know that is my intention, which is to see just how the actual battery life and replacements work out, since I don't believe most claims by the pundits or the government. 

My other challenge is that our driving is split between a lot of short trips and a few trips of many hundreds of miles. Those long trips go through areas where even gas stations are few, and so probably charging stations would be even fewer. Does it make sense to have one car for trips and another for daily use? We found it worked very well having three cars and two drivers for a lot of years, so sometimes it does. The logical alternative would be a hybrid vehicle that could hold reasonable highway speeds for a few hundred miles. But that requirement does narrow the range of choices quite a bit.

We do have smart meters in my area but so far I am not aware of peak and off-peak pricing. I am aware of  quite a few power outages hitting in the hottest days of the AC season, undoubtedly because of our fairly old ditribution network here. So if we all got plug-in cars we could have more frequent outages if they all chose to charge at an off-peak time. Today that is not a problem, I make no predictions about next year.

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