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Gigafactory Will Lead the Way as Battery Pack Prices Drop By 35%

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patb2009
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you don't need a great battery
patb2009   5/29/2015 1:26:55 AM
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if you have cheap ones.

Cylon13
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Re: you don't need a great battery
Cylon13   5/29/2015 8:37:23 AM
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Great point..... also, wireless charging wherever you park makes sense as well!

William K.
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Re: you don't need a great battery
William K.   5/30/2015 2:35:50 PM
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Wireless charging will always be inefficient, which is why they never state the actual efficiency in terms that normal people use. It is convenient, which is why lazy and technically incompetent people like it. 

And nobody ever talks about any considerations of the effect of that large magnetic field. Remember when some folks were concerned about much smaller magnetic fields and the effect that they had on health?

Cylon13
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Re: you don't need a great battery
Cylon13   6/1/2015 8:09:55 AM
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@ WilliamK

Again, your comment here appears to reveal more about your bias, than anything technological that is unknown. Wireless charging is a natural extension of charging technology. Then, you tell us that magnetic fields are going to be a problem. If charging is ubiquitously everywhere, you will not need to transfer large amounts of Juoles instantaneously or over short periods. I guess next you are going to tell us you never topped off you tank!

William K.
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Re: you don't need a great battery
William K.   6/1/2015 9:10:02 PM
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I see that you make no claim that wireless charging is efficient. It is always far less efficient than connected charging. 

I do not claim that the magnetic fields are harmful, but that a number of folks think that they are. And blind fear often causes problems, since many politicians cater to those folks.

Cylon13
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Re: you don't need a great battery
Cylon13   6/2/2015 9:45:39 AM
"I see that you make no claim that wireless charging is efficient. It is always far less efficient than connected charging."

Of course not, human behavior doesn't rely on what is most efficient. It's usually based upon what's most comfortable. Pulling into a parking spot and connecting a charger is easy enough; however, pulling into a spot and doing nothing is easier.

"I do not claim that the magnetic fields are harmful, but that a number of folks think that they are. And blind fear often causes problems, since many politicians cater to those folks."

Well OK.... that's sensible enough; but blind fear as a substitute for science and reason is not an argument for not doing something. The blindness part is usually something self-imposed and the fear part is usually a reflection of the brainwashing in play. Politicians cater to the wealthy and corporations, not average people.

William K.
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Re: you don't need a great battery
William K.   6/2/2015 7:29:31 PM
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At a time when eficiency is being mandated for all sorts of things it just does not seem reasonable that an inefficient system catering to the lazy and incompetent portion ofour society should be touted as a wonderful feature. We live with many restrictions all in the name of conservation of energy, and then hee is the low efficiency wireless charging system getting high praises. I would rather that wireless charging would go the way of open carbon arc lighting.

ttemple
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Re: you don't need a great battery
ttemple   6/2/2015 7:39:39 PM
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www.modernpowersystems.com/news/newshigh-efficiency-inductive-ev-charger-developed

They claim efficiency of 97.5%, which isn't bad.

William K.
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Re: you don't need a great battery
William K.   6/2/2015 8:27:34 PM
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97.5% efficiency is astounding, and also. So now the question is about the unknown "weasel words" describing what they mean by efficiency. That may be where the obfuscation lies.

ttemple
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Re: you don't need a great battery
ttemple   6/2/2015 9:14:08 PM
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I hear you.  That's why I said "they claim..."

William K.
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Re: you don't need a great battery
William K.   6/3/2015 6:34:56 AM
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The one time that I saw an actual published efficiency of a wireless charging system it was in a very complex format, quite different fromhow efficiency is normally presented. That may be reasonable because coupling efficiency depends on a number of variables. 

But the universal tendancy to never clearly state the real efficiency tells me that it is not very good, because most folks brag about good efficiency.

The "best" one claimed a fairly high efficiency for converting transmitted power into charging power, but neglecting to use input power. So transmitting efficiency was not included.

Cylon13
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Re: you don't need a great battery
Cylon13   6/3/2015 8:04:00 AM
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@WilliamK.....

You keep beating this inefficiency dead horse as if it's case closed; well, in your mind it may be. I really think you need to rely on a little imagination here. Technology is not stagnant. Also, you never addressed the point of reducing the energy transfer if indeed the wireless is that inefficient.  I see this paradigm everywhere that people think they have to go somewhere and fill-up on energy. The idea of making charging available as many places as you can breaks that paradigm, as well as solves the issues for those who are stuck in it. Agaiin, a new paradigm where topping off the tank, (battery) becomes reasonable is all I'm suggesting.

William K.
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Re: you don't need a great battery
William K.   6/3/2015 8:22:03 AM
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I do agree with you that accepting wireless power transmission as effective certainly takes immagination. 

The fact is that no matter how hard we wish something to be true we are still limited by those laws of physics and mathmatics, as they relate to energy fields. I know that technology is advancing , and possibly some day energy will be available cheap enough so as to not matter how much is wasted. But that day is not in the near future as I see it.

I am aware that there are huge amounts of profit to be had by catering to laziness, and so wireless charging will always be supported. But until it can deliver the same efficiency as a direct connection that lower efficiency will always need to be noted, and presented to those who seem to be mandating that all inefficient uses of energy be curtailed. In addition, sometimes the truth does stand in the way of maximizing profit. This may be one of those times.

Arden Dulou
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plug in a dead in segment
Arden Dulou   5/29/2015 8:31:21 AM
plug in will always suffer from the infrastructure being built for it to not work, and for the high cost to implement/own. Also, it isn't enviromentally friendly.

Hybrids will continue to rule until a new battery emerges or the fuel cell catalyst is cost reduced to the point it can be mass manufactured.

The Porsche Spyder system will be the power design that rules the market in the future once the Vdub engineers cost reduce it to fit in VWs. Sort of like what Buick has. Maybe an alternative version of the Volt could win out.

Remember, electric prices have been promised to go up 5 times over the next few years... Batteries have a roll in the future car/truck transportation, just got got to remember sometimes the best solution is the simpliest. Rebuilding the power grid, with a broke federal govt and multiple broke state governments, isn't going to happen anytime soon.

Cylon13
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Re: plug in a dead in segment
Cylon13   5/29/2015 8:42:10 AM
The infrastructure we have now will not be the same infrastructure 20 years from now. Large scale utilities and distribution will go the same way as wired telephones. It's inevitable; and for all you self-proclaimed free market libertarians out there, what the heck is wrong with being responsible for your own energy rather than supporting the large corporate dinosaurs of production and distribution of the 20th century. A man just can't find a good buggy whip manufacturer anymore!

CharlesM
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Re: plug in a dead in segment
CharlesM   5/29/2015 9:20:42 AM
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How are plug-ins not environmentally friendly?

What point is a cheap fuel cell if it is not environmentally friendly? Is it?

When you say governments are "broke," do you mean dysfunctional or insolvent? Having debt does not mean insolvent.

DavidR
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Tesla Superchargers
DavidR   5/29/2015 12:05:47 PM
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Tesla is rapidly building out their own network of supercharger stations. These will provide a 200 mile charge in less than 15 minutes on the current battery packs. They already have enough in place to drive the Eastern seaboard from New York to Miami or the full length of the California coast. By next year you will be able to drive coast to coast on major freeways. Next gen batteries will cut the charge time by 1/3rd and have 20-30% more capacity.

patb2009
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Re: Tesla Superchargers
patb2009   5/30/2015 4:22:02 AM
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Tesla already has one east west route covered and is working on a second.

 

They are pretty close to covering all the major routes.

 

 

William K.
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Lowe battery prices? Don't bet on it.
William K.   5/30/2015 2:39:02 PM
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I doubt that battery prices will drop very much simply because it has been shown that a number of folks are willing to pay those higer prices. So it is most likely that prices will not drop very much. 

patb2009
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Re: Lowe battery prices? Don't bet on it.
patb2009   6/1/2015 2:37:51 AM
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Unit costs of most modular systems drop 20% for every doubling of unit production/year.

That's true in batteries as well as anything else.

 

The growth of demand in electronics, hybrid cars and renewable energy will drive

battery markets.

William K.
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Re: Lowe battery prices? Don't bet on it.
William K.   6/1/2015 9:05:22 PM
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I did not say that the cost of producing batteries would not drop. My claim is that the high demand will allow the prices to stay high, based on the large demand. Prices only drop when supply eceeds the demand. So profits for the battery makers and sellers will rise as the cost of production drops. But with a single mega-factory there would not be a lot of competition forcing prices down. 

patb2009
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Re: Lowe battery prices? Don't bet on it.
patb2009   6/1/2015 9:34:14 PM
William K

 

You are assuming, that the demand isn't price sensitive.

If you look at it from a game theory perspective on a commodity object,

the entity that drops price 2% gets more then 2% revenue.

so prices drive down, because prices tend to track marginal costs

 

Once the gigafactory comes on line, it's really going to drive futures...

 

 

William K.
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Re: Lowe battery prices? Don't bet on it.
William K.   6/1/2015 9:51:06 PM
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I am ppresuming that a single mega-factory will have a better cost advantage due to large size. Then I am presuming not much competition because of that cost advantage. And then I am presuming that a lack of competition will lead to a lack of price cutting, since typically competition is what drives price cutting.

Of course none of these presumptions are valid if the huge factory does not have lower production costs. But others asert that it will have lower production costs.

patb2009
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Re: Lowe battery prices? Don't bet on it.
patb2009   6/1/2015 10:19:07 PM
well, if the Gigafactory can generate fat margins, then you will see

other Gigafactories come online.

Cylon13
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Re: Lowe battery prices? Don't bet on it.
Cylon13   6/1/2015 8:14:39 AM
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@WilliamK

Here again are more assumptions with little supporting documentation, as well as no eye toward the future. Keep hoarding those incandescent light bulbs since nobody here has any LED in their homes because you know.... because nobody is going to pay for them!

Cylon13
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Re: plug in a dead in segment
Cylon13   6/1/2015 8:03:28 AM
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@WilliamK

Nonsense..... also, you assume the technology is stagnant. Bad assumption and poor reasoning!

CharlesM
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Re: plug in a dead in segment
CharlesM   6/1/2015 10:30:16 AM
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Plug in cars still need power and that power still usually comes from the same source as other power, which is often fuel-powered generation systems. The just move the pollution out of sight. 

Really? Does gasoline usually come from coal, natural gas, or nuclear fuels? Funny thing, though. Electricity enables you to get power from virtually clean and renewable, non-fossil fuel sources. Not so, gasoline. That's what too few people (especially around here) understand, maybe including Mr. Murray.

One other thing that has not been mentioned is all of the real-estate "area pollution" due to public charging stations. They take up lots of parking spots.

How much "area pollution" comes from gas stations, not to mention refineries? And how many huge, flammable gasoline tanker trucks are sharing the highway with your family vehicle speeding down the interstate (and belching so-called "clean diesel" exhaust along the way)?

How can a fuel cell that produces water as a waste product nnot be environmentally friendly? Please explain.

Happily. First you have to make hydrogen. Do you know how that's done? It's like the person who realized how much energy comes for "free" when they push a boulder off their roof. Except for accounting for how the boulder gets up there. 

And nobody ever talks about any considerations of the effect of that large magnetic field. Remember when some folks were concerned about much smaller magnetic fields and the effect that they had on health?

Except more is known now about those health effects. Someday we'll say "Remember when some folks didn't 'believe' global warming was real and said it was some kind of hoax?" 

I doubt that battery prices will drop very much simply because it has been shown that a number of folks are willing to pay those higer prices. So it is most likely that prices will not drop very much.

Great logic, if you ignore every rule of economics. Elsewhere, computer prices haven't gotten any lower in the last 30 (or even 5) years, because there were plenty of people buying them then.

Thank you, William K. You continue to be one of my best team players of good cop/bad cop for our side of these issues.

Critic
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Wireless Charging Efficiency
Critic   6/3/2015 11:35:32 AM
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It sure seems like a direct, conductive connection would be an efficient way to charge a car.  For lazy people, the connection could be made automatically.  After you park your car over a charging port, the connection to the underside of the car is made robotically and charging begins.  When you return to your car, charging stops and the charging arm retracts.  No big deal.  Alternatively, the car could drive into a self-aligning charging port.

The article at www.modernpowersystems.com/news/newshigh-efficiency-inductive-ev-charger-developed says that a 13-cm coil spacing was used.  This is very close- most cars have more ground clearance than this.

www.wirelesspowerconsortium.com/technology/transfer-efficiency.html shows that for best efficiency of the coupled charging coils, we need close spacing and coils of similar size.  For best efficiency, the Q of the coils must be high, which is not easy to achieve.  The alignment of the coils in the X-Y plane is also important.

It is true that wireless power transfer people like to play games with efficiency figures.  An IEEE paper, "A High Efficiency 5 kW Inductive Charger for EVs Using Dual Side Control" by Wu, Gilchrist, Sealy, and Bronson includes a detailed efficiency analysis and (inaccurately) measured data.  The authors state that "only conduction losses are considered" in their analysis. 

If someone were to actually measure the efficiency of a wireless charging system accurately, I am confident that we would find that wireless charging is not as efficient as a direct connection.

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