Most experts says battery costs can drop to less than $400/kWh, but not by 2015. A recent Lux study, "Material Innovation and Cost-Cutting Strategies for Lithium-Ion Batteries in Transportation," predicts a pack cost of $397/kWh by 2020. In late February, David Cole of the Center for Automotive Research told us that engineers inside Ford and GM are betting the cost could drop below $400 by 2020. Industry analysts tend to say battery costs could drop by about one-third in the next five to 10 years.
"In our forecasts, we've predicted that it will hit the mid-$500 range within five years," said Dave Hurst, a senior analyst who studies electric cars for Pike Research. "The raw materials aren't going to get much lower at this point. The power electronics -- the circuit boards -- aren't coming down, either. So the only place you'll gain efficiencies is in the assembly of the cells and the assembly of the packs."
Most analysts say that better battery technology would change the cost scenario, and that batteries that enable electric cars to drive farther or recharge faster would boost demand. Increased demand would provide the economies of scale that the industry is seeking. Unfortunately, analysts still don't see that on the horizon.
"Either the batteries are going to have to cost less or give dramatically better performance for the same cost," Sathawane said. "But neither of those scenarios are likely to happen by 2015."
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I should add that while I believe that delivery trucks will be the primary market, I'm not as optimistic about 2X range and 50% cost. The ace-in-the-hole, though, is the Envia battery, which is under development in conjunction with General Motors. If the Envia battery is successful, then your numbers will be right on target.
Just currious if any of the commentors currently own a production EV or have a friend with one ?
My wife and I own two ICE vehicles (can't yet bare to part with my beloved 1997 XJR) and a wonderful Nissan LEAF all-electric. It is fun to drive, with a surprisingly enjoyable acceleration curve; constant from any starting rpm and costs us $2.10 in electricity per 100 miles here in the NW. Since late May 2011 we have logged 7700 miles in the LEAF and 3 tankfuls of gasoline in the Volve S80 (3/4 tank in the XJR).
It is already eminently practical for us right now and cost less than the Volvo S80 which we purchased new several years ago. Nissan is rumored to have the lowest EV battery cost per KwH in the industry, perhaps 1/2 their closest compeditor and the warranty for 80% charge retention is 8 years or 100k miles. Agreed it is still a bit pricey and not for everyone, especially single car households, but gosh do yourself a favor and test drive one before any detailed critic of EV viability.
I am concerned about the trend I see (largely in the media and political world) to compare battery technology development with emerging "high tech" items.
Batteries have seen a great deal of intense development for what, 200 years? This is a very mature industry. Could we get a breakthrough tomorrow? Sure. Should we continue to seek one? Abosolutely. Should we base our forward looking game plan on the assumption that this will happen? Count me as a bit reluctant.
I agree on all counts, Dennis. The breakthrough will come eventually, but there's no guaratee that throwing money at it today will bring about a breakthrough tomorrow. It requires discovery, which can't be planned. Regarding the long history of battery development, see the link to the article below.
Bunter, you're right on the mark. In politics and journalism, people talk about the "Moore's Law for batteries," which DOES NOT exist. Moore's Law describes a manufacturing situation -- the ability to make smaller and smaller feature sizes on a semiconductor chip. Batteries, in contrast, are subject to the laws of material science. True, manufacturing will bring the costs down to some degree, but not in a Moore's Law fashion. And manufacturing will do little or nothing for energy density. To get a sense of the history, take a look at this:
Tesla Motors’ $35,000, 200-mile electric car may not revolutionize the auto industry by itself, but it could serve as a starting point for a long, steady climb to a day when half of the world’s vehicles will be plug-ins.
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