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Captain Hybrid

EV Batteries: Solid Concept, but Not Ready for Prime Time

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Rob Spiegel
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Re: No Choice
Rob Spiegel   4/12/2012 3:48:17 PM
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We could see some additional sources of energy as technology moves forward. Perhaps solar energy gleaned from satellites. The solar energy stored on earth may not be the best source ultimately.

ttemple
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Re: No Choice
ttemple   4/12/2012 5:02:15 PM
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Rigby5:

"so therefore we know there is just not enough sunlight hitting the earth for us to be able to achieve sufficient quantity"

Not enough sunlight for what?




Charles Murray
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Re: No Choice
Charles Murray   4/12/2012 6:46:07 PM
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I agree, Rob. Solar faces challenges. It needs to be more efficient and we have to figure out better ways to store intermittent forms of power.

ttemple
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Re: No Choice
ttemple   4/13/2012 8:40:57 AM
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Rigby5,

Have you looked up how much solar energy hits the earth?  You finally hit on a topic where some facts can be ascertained, and conclude that there is not enough sunlight hitting the earth. (and you are probably a "climate change" proponent???)

Here is what one site says about the amount of solar energy hitting the earth:

"With these assumptions, figuring out how much solar energy hits the entire planet is relatively simple. 12.2 trillion watt-hours converts to 12,211 gigawatt-hours, and based on 8,760 hours per year, and 197 million square miles of earth's surface (including the oceans), the earth receives about 274 million gigawatt-years of solar energy, which translates to an astonishing 8.2 million "quads" of Btu energy per year.

In case you haven't heard, a "quad Btu" refers to one quadrillion British Thermal Units of energy, a common term used by energy economists. The entire human race currently uses about 400 quads of energy (in all forms) per year. Put another way, the solar energy hitting the earth exceeds the total energy consumed by humanity by a factor of over 20,000 times."

That is from http://www.ecoworld.com/energy-fuels/how-much-solar-energy-hits-earth.html, so you would probably agree with it completely.  (I don't agree with it completely, because I can spot some obvious flaws in their logic and assumptions)  Nonetheless, there is thousands of times more energy hitting the earth than we could possibly use, if we figured out how to use it.

It bothers me very much that you regurgitate beliefs, speculations, and theories as fact.  As for backing your dating with carbon dating,  Wikipedia's article on carbon dating states that carbon dating is "good" for 58,000 to 62,000 years back.  It also admits that the dating is off by 1000 years in the first 6000 years, and they extrapolate a correction factor.  So, it is off by as much as 1/6 in the first 6000, and only good to 60,000.  I presume they are attempting to extrapolate the same compensation out to 60,000 years, which in my estimation is potentially completely bogus.  Anybody that has done much actual data collection and analysis knows what kind of trouble you get into when you attempt to extrapolate past actual data.

So, lets say carbon dating is good for 60kyears.  It is apparently known to be off by at least 15% in the first 6 or 7 thousand years, and corrected by some assumptions.  Then that correction is extrapolated out, etc. etc. etc.  What are you doing for the next 99,940,000 years to get you to 100,000,000 years?  How can you observe a process that you say takes hundreds of millions of years?  You could at best watch the process for maybe 10's of years by now, if you started several decades ago.  Then you would have to make a measurement and extrapolate it out for a hundred million years.  Sorry, I don't buy it as "fact".

It is easy to shoot holes in many of the over 100 dating methods that have been used over the years.  Naturally, there is great disagreement between many of the dating systems.  There is simply no way to prove events that are stated to be 100's of millions of years old, to the point of calling them factual.

If you would frame your arguments as based upon your beliefs or assumptions I would be much more tolerant of your sermons, but you don't.  If I came on this forum and tried to evangelize everyone, I would probably be thrown off.  In essence, that is what you are doing.  You are spewing a bunch of speculative information that you believe, and presenting it as authoritative fact, when it is not.

I am not saying that your information is for certain wrong.  I am saying that the information you present can't be proven as fact, and it can't be proven to not be fact.  Thus, it shouldn't be presented as fact.  It is probably more accurately described as dogma.

If I had your belief system, and wanted to sound credible, I would preface my statements with some background, such as "I believe that ....,", or "Some scientists theorize....".  Then I wouldn't have a problem with anything you are saying.

Rigby5
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Re: No Choice
Rigby5   4/13/2012 2:03:26 PM
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ttemple : Your post is nonesense and does not belong in a technical society.
There is no question oil requires over 100 million years to occur naturally.  It is what all geologist know as a fact.  I am aware there are crackpots who claim the Earth is only 6,000 years old, and that oil spontaneously oozes up from the center of the Earth, but no one here should take that seriously.

Yes, carbon 14 dating is limited, but there are lots of other proven dating techniques, so you are still wrong.  Such as potassium-40 decays to argon-40; uranium-238 decays to lead-206 via other elements like radium; uranium-235 decays to lead-207; rubidium-87 decays to strontium-87, etc.  Dating is fairly well understood, reliable, and has been cross referenced for validation.

And no, there is not sufficient solar energy hitting the Earth for us to power cars as we do now.  Not only is it impossible to capture solar energy over water, fields, etc., but to even consider trying to capture a fraction would cause massive death and destruction.  Sunlight is the source of all food chains, which we must not disrupt.  Solar collectors can only put in totally barren locations, and our yields and transmission losses make that totally impractical.  Solar is worth pursuing, but not for transportation.  It can never produce sufficient yield.

ttemple
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Re: No Choice
ttemple   4/13/2012 4:15:49 PM
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Rigby5,

I am "still wrong" about what?  I looked back through my posts, and I don't see that I have made any claims (other than maybe "you have a bad case of it").  You are making all the claims, I have simply challenged your assertion that some of your claims are "well known facts".  I don't even see where I have said that your claims are wrong.  I just don't think that characterizing your claims as "facts" is accurate.

If you said "most geologists believe that it takes 100 million years for oil to form", I wouldn't have a problem with it.  You might even say that "all geologists accept as fact that...".  I wouldn't believe that "all" geologists agree on it, but you could say it.  To say that "all geologists know as fact" is a overreaching in two ways.  One, I doubt if "all" geologists believe it, and two, they can't "know" it.

Nobody knows with certainty what happened 100 million years ago, or what takes 100 million years to happen.  We can make intelligent guesses based upon what appears to have happened, but that doesn't make our best guesses facts.  It is still just our best guess based upon the evidence.

I'm sorry that you either don't understand, or won't acknowledge the distinction between facts and theories.

 

Rigby5
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Re: No Choice
Rigby5   4/13/2012 6:59:20 PM
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ttemple :

I have read a number of textbooks referencing that it takes over 100 million years for oil to natually ferment.  If you feel the scientific community is in error on this accepted fact, then I suggest you publish your miraculous findings.  Unitl then or you show anyone else published who agrees with you, your view has no merit.  It would be criminal for someone to try to delude the public into believing oil did not naturally take over 100 million years.

ttemple
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Re: No Choice
ttemple   4/16/2012 6:44:15 AM
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Rigby5,

That is a wonderful suggestion - make it a crime to not believe what you believe.  Come to think of it, they used to do that...  The earth was flat, and we bled the sick.  Perhaps you would suggest burning me at the stake.

Rigby5
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Re: No Choice
Rigby5   4/16/2012 9:56:06 PM
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Except that you are the one claiming all the geologists are wrong, just like the people who claimed the round Earth scientists were wrong.  And what is criminal about this is that instead of trying to deal with the real problem of finite oil resources, people like you want to delude others into not preparing for this approaching severe threat.  It was the religious fanatics who thought the Earth was flat, the earth is young, and there are infinite and renewable oil resources. 

We either have to get really busy with batteries or hydrogen, because nothing else will likely work in about 20 to 60 years.

Charles Murray
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Re: No Choice
Charles Murray   4/17/2012 7:17:31 PM
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Speaking of solar, Rob, we will have a story about energy storage for solar and wind in a couple of days.

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