Casual observers of the news could hardly be blamed last week for believing that the nation's streets will soon be clogged by millions of battery-powered cars.
To understand why, all you need to do is Google "3.8 million electric vehicles." You're sure to find links to loads of news stories saying that annual global sales of electric vehicles will spike to 3.8 million units by 2020. Virtually all the headlines cite a big increase in sales of electric cars. Some stories call the growth exponential. Many articles say that there will be 4.4 million electric vehicles on the world's roads by 2020.
All the stories use accurate numbers. But before you start believing that 25 or 30 percent of vehicles will be pure electric by 2020, a few other facts need to be considered.
First, pure electric cars are expected to make up fewer than 1 percent of the vehicles sold in the US in 2020. The exact figure is 0.6 percent -- six-tenths of 1 percent. And this figure comes, not from a competing study, but from the very study quoted in all the articles.
That, of course, isn't the impression anyone gets when reviewing the collection of headlines about this important study from Pike Research. The 0.6 percent figure is essentially ignored, and many of the headlines place hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and battery electrics together in a single basket titled "electric vehicles."
Let's look at some other figures from Pike's study. It states that 107,000 battery electric vehicles will be sold annually in the US by 2020. By that time, Pike expects 261,000 plug-in hybrids per year to be sold in the US. In the world of automobile sales -- which could include more than 17 million light-duty vehicles in the US in 2020 -- those numbers are puny.
Still, the 3.8 million figure is accurate. It's a global approximation consisting of three components: 977,500 battery cars, 721,000 plug-in hybrids, and 2.05 million conventional hybrids (like the Prius) expected to be sold in 2020. The numbers appear to be relatively large, until you consider that Pike expects 96 million light-duty vehicles to be sold globally that year.
Similarly, the "4.4 million electric cars" figure is accurate but a little confusing when viewed in the absence of the rest of the study. It represents the total accumulation of pure electric cars on the world's roads, including all those purchased in every model year up through 2020. Considering that the total number of cars on earth passed 1 billion in 2011 and is still rising, that electric number is also comparatively small.
I agree. More perspective and less hype is just a realization that pure EV vehicles are probably further away. And start-stop hybrids are going to carry a larger bit of market share in the shorter term. It's really good news for the response to the technology overall among consumers.
I don't think the article is necessarily pessimistic, Charles...I think it's more realistic. I want there to be electric cars as much as any tree-hugging hippie, but I think it's better to be honest about what's happening rather than act like adoption is more widespread than it is. In fact, I am hoping that this might light a fire under the auto industry and consumers to get their act together and make green investments so we can get these numbers up.
I don't know why you're always so eager to be pessimistic and throw cold water on the greenest of technologies. If your articles are read years down the road you may end up sounding like the head of IBM who stated, only as far back as 1958, that the world market of computers would be "about five" units.
Only 6 years ago the smart phone was born. At that point how many smart phones were predicted to have been sold by now and for 2013?
Only 3 years ago the modern tablet computer was invented and all anyone could wonder was why Apple named it as if it were a feminine hygiene product and why anyone would buy giant iPhones that cannot make phone calls. At that point how many computer tablets were predicted to have been sold by now and for 2013?
Stop-start functions and micro-hybrids are great, but these technologies will need significant help from plug-in hybrids and EVs to meet sustainable fuel consumption requirements urgently needed to correct a badly destabilized world climate. I believe automotive experts like Bob Lutz and Elon Musk would disagree with your relatively bleak future for clean cars, and they aren't exactly tree huggers. Lutz is predicting 10% electrics (including extended range) by 2020.
As for the media hyping partial truths, that's nothing new and there's plenty of that going on right here. And now carbon addicts and climate deniers to start attacking me in 4, 3, 2, 1...
Elizabeth, you are correct in calling it hype. There was an article in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) today about the Nissan Leaf. It seems that Nissan will start building Leafs in the US in February. Sales have been sluggish. Building cars here will avoid some of the exchange rate penalty Japanese companies have been experiencing. In 2012 they sold 9,819 Leafs in the US. Their target was 20,000. They can build 150,000 at the US plant.
Chuck, it is good that you have put the numbers in perspective. This is important, since even a small percentage of the global auto market can seem large to someone who does not know much about it.
I think the emphasis on start-stop hybrids is the way to go in the short term. The big problem with city mileage is the stopping. I know people who do this manually. I am not sure of how effective that is, but they have the expectation that it helps.
Thanks for cutting through the hype on this issue! It's lovely if the U.S. wants to pat itself on the back for its adoption of electric cars, but it's clear that adoption isn't nearly as rapid as people are led to believe. Hybrid cars are a great alternative to purely gas-powered cars, and adoption of them is heartening, but I still think more needs to be done in the auto industry to promote development and adoption of not only hybrids but also purely electric cars. Gasoline dependence can be a thing of the past if the right people want to work on the problem! Leading people astray with lack of context about what's really going on does no one any good.
Tesla Motors plans to roll out a “compelling, affordable electric car” that will sell for about half the price of its high-profile Model S by the end of 2016, company chairman Elon Musk said last week.
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