Electric vehicle sales numbers are anemic, and EV battery makers are fighting for their lives. So why are automakers rolling out a steady stream of new battery-powered cars?
Last week, we told you about the unveiling of two battery-powered vehicles: General Motors' Spark EV and Chrysler's Fiat 500e. This year, pure electric vehicles have been rolled out by Tesla, Honda, Ford, Coda, and Toyota. In 2013, BMW will unveil its all-electric i3.
"It's a head-scratcher, looking at it from the outside," Mike VanNieuwkuyk, executive director of global automotive at J.D. Power & Associates, told us. "There are so many battery-electric products being developed, and to date there are not a lot of sales."
Check out some of the EVs that are making news.
Ford's Focus Electric initially launched in California, New York, and New Jersey, as well as in some selected metropolitan markets. The company predicted sales of 5,000 vehicles in 2012. (Source: Ford Motor)
Recent predictions from industry analysts make the situation even more of a puzzler. In November, J.D. Power released a study forecasting miniscule BEV sales numbers. The 2012 Electric Vehicle Ownership Experience Study predicted battery-electrics would make up less than 1 percent of all vehicles sold in the US in 2015. Lux Research and Pike Research have also published dire forecasts for pure EVs and EV batteries in the past year.
Nevertheless, there are reasons for the growing parade of BEVs. Some automakers (including Nissan and Tesla, to name two) are true believers in the potential of the all-electric market. But even for those that may just be testing the waters, there are good reasons for rolling out pure electric cars. They include legal compliance, government subsidies, manufacturability, and a dash of practicality.
"Part of it is there's a risk to being last to the party," Kevin See, an industry analyst for Lux Research, told us. "So while most of us believe it's too early, it's preferable to do it now, rather than miss it altogether."
Experts say some of the recent rollouts have been motivated by zero-emission laws, such as those in California. For example, Chrysler unveiled the Fiat 500e hatchback despite earlier proclamations by CEO Sergio Marchionne that he didn't believe in electric cars. "I'm not scared, I just won't do" electrification, he told Automobile Magazine this summer. "I just will not do it. I think we're smoking illegal materials if we think we're going to make those [profitably]. It just won't work." When Chrysler unveiled the 500e for the press last week, it said the vehicle would be sold only in California.
Greencarreports.com called five of this year's battery-electric introductions "compliance cars" -- the Spark EV, the Fiat 500e, the Ford Focus Electric, Honda Fit EV, and the Toyota RAV4 EV. The website based its assessment on projected sales numbers, sales outside California, and willingness to sell (rather than lease) the vehicles.
There is a serious, well based study published in "ISSUES in Science and Technology" by the "National Academy of Sciences", "National Academy of Engineering" and the "Institute of Medicine, University of Texas at Dallas", that shows that purely Electric vehicles actually produce MORE emissions when their complete life-cycle emissions are considered, compared to Hybrids. http://www.issues.org/28.4/p_michalek.html
The problem is that ignorant, mis-informed politicians (specially those with so called "Ecological" viewpoints) make whatever it takes to impose whatever they (blindly) believe, in order to promote what they guess are "green" alternatives. Just from a purely scientific and technical viewpoint, having to build, activate and carry a heavy, inefficiently recharged large battery all along the road, and then having to dispose of it; is not as smart, notwithstanding how deep is the "greenish" tint of the politician sunglasses.
I'm patiently waiting to see the face of our former City Major (he stepped down yesterday), when he realizes that He will soon need to replace the very expensive battery of his Nissan Leaf. He ordered a fleet of Leaf taxies for Mexico City, and drivers are finding those barely endure their distance ratings, and are slower than predicted, barely handling the aggresive traffic of the city.
tekochip, you are exactly correct. I read an article in IEEE Spectrum some time ago that lays this situation out exactly. The author was hired into a company as a VP or R&D. He was working on a product and well into the development he decided it was not going to be a success. He went to his boss to suggest they can the project. He was told no! The first version of the product needed to be in the market almost as a placeholder. The real money would be made on future versions, but if they weren't in the market they would not be taken seriously when it finally took off.
Electric vehicles are the same thing. California required them several years ago. That was before the global warming scare but during a period of tight gasoline supplies and high prices. It was not successful. The compliance vehicles built then were not very good, but the companies complied, and they gained some knowledge of the issues with these vehicles. I see the same situation with the large makers at this time.
Tesla, of course, is another story altogether. They are a car company built around the pure electric vehicle. They have a plan, which they are executing well, to start with higher end cars, which are basically novelties, and to then move into mass market vehicles as the technology progresses.
The most valid point is that you want to be doing your development work when your competitors are doing their development work. It would be disastrous to start development on a new technology after your competitor already has a product in the marketplace.
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