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Captain Hybrid

Global Warming: Are the Skeptics Right?

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feierbach
User Rank
Gold
seeing the big picture
feierbach   4/29/2013 2:18:59 PM
I'm an engineer that has done quite a bit of computer modelling. The results from a computer model are only as good as the science, engineering and data that goes into the model. In the case of climate models these have been refined over many decades as new satellites measure temperatures around the earth, levels of various gases in the atmosphere and energy flux from the sun and reflected energy from the Earth. This combined with ice core samples and billions of Earth based measurements and studies have contributed data and science to refining these models to the point that the general trend is undeniable. 

Then you get engineers and scientists that doubt this glossal mountain of data when this is not their area of expertise. I call this their Shockley moment when they grab a few little fragment of contrary data and jump to a conclusion contrary to the huge mountain of data amassed supporting the generally accepted theory. This puts them in the same league with Creationists, believers in ghosts, leprechauns and little grey saucer men.

Amclaussen
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Global warming... just as I was saying...
Amclaussen   4/29/2013 2:07:35 PM
The absolute, passionated and totalitarian posture adopted by some people calling others 'Corporate Shills' is not going to produce anything valuable.

Good engineers tend to be highly analytical, self confident and capable of being calm when things start to go crazy.  Let´s be calm in order to be productive and rigorous.

Leave the trickery and name calling to politicians, we engineers can be better than them, or not?

Amclaussen
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Dunning-Kruger effect reliability.
Amclaussen   4/29/2013 1:44:26 PM
Good observation, Glenn. Apart from the mentioned effect, there is a couple of others (Overconfidence, Illusory Superiority Etc.) But there is a difference between the findings of those Psychologists, which were based on the execution of relatively simple tasks (reading comprehension, operating a motor vehicle, and playing chess or tennis..) and the extrapolation of their findings and its application to a group of professionals like trained and knowledgeable engineers.

Even when a real debate on a polemic subject like the so called "Global Warming" will provoque uncontrovertible polarization into two large opposing groups, we can expect that, at least, the debate among engineers will have much more serious and complete arguments that a similar debate between the general population, simply because engineers do usually have a better understanding of scientific matters.

More than that kind of phycological distortions, it will be the overheated, absolutist positions adopted by some individuals (engineers or not) what will cause wrong conclusions.

One thing is clear: Both sides have strong interests in imposing their viewpoint; "Green" business is no better/worse than the petroleum/energy industry... both  sides will do whatever they deem necessary to impose their dictates. People tend to identify themselves with the "green" movement simply because it appears to be an intrinsically "good" position. But this has caused a good deal of counterproductive measures.  Politicians that proclame themselves as "green", are frequently the worst decision makers, confirming the "Law of unintended consequences" more than anybody else. There are examples of fanatical postures adopted by that kind of politicians and governants.  Like religious extremists, those kind of "leaders" end up causing more confusion  and actual damage than anyone else.

As engineers, we certainly have abilities that can make us better informed and critical, so we need to keep studying and analyzing the various postures on this subject. But one thing is clear: Being too pasionate is not the proper way to tacke a scientific task, and let's beware of the hidden interests of BOTH sides!

BTW: The " Dunning-Kruger Effect " was nominated and awarded the 2000 satirical Ig Nobel Prize in Psychology for their paper, "Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments".

rdelaplaza
User Rank
Silver
Re: Global warming
rdelaplaza   4/29/2013 12:41:35 PM
You Earthlings look like a buch of rightfull guys at the Titanic discussing if the water is coming in from the left or the right side and considering if it finally will sink the boat, while a few guys make money sell deck chairs and declare that the boat is not sinking.

From the narrow human perspective, it will be too late when the boat is underwater.

During the last 300 years mankind has been burning millions upon millions of tons of fossile fuels as there was no tomorrow, blindly deniying that "IT HAS MUST HAVE SOME TYPE OF CONSEQUENCES".

Has anyone considered the thickness of the thin breathable layer of gasses that sustain life in earth, if the earth was an apple; the breathable atmosphere will be thinner than the apple skin, but a few stupid still thinking thak they can alter the atmosphere forever without CONSEQUENCES.

Well.. we will see who WAS RIGHT; when the boat sinks... in a cloud of smoke. just matter of time, irreversible.

jcbond_mi
User Rank
Gold
Re: Global warming
jcbond_mi   4/29/2013 11:52:01 AM
And it would appear that the global warming crowd is using every tool at hand to prevent evidence from being presented. Why is that?

They, whoever "the global warming crowd" are, are not doing that. Your question is a non sequitur. It's the denial crowd that has no scientific legs to stand on. Where is their science?  Whatever it is has been debunked so thoroughly as to make your side a laughingstock, were the damage it's getting away with not so catastrophic.

I'd say you're part of the "global warming crowd", doing your best to shout down and mock anyone who dares to express a dissenting opinion.  Regardless of their excellent qualifications to do so.  Regardless of the criminal fraud (yes criminal) committed by members of the "global warming crowd" to back up their opinion.

jcbond_mi
User Rank
Gold
Re: Global warming
jcbond_mi   4/29/2013 11:46:29 AM
One more: THE EARTH IS WARMING FASTER NOW THAN IT HAS IN 11,000 YEARS.

I see.

What temperature is the earth supposed to be at?  The earth has been, on average, both significantly warmer and and significantly cooler as you broaden your time scale.  So what is it supposed to be?

CharlesM
User Rank
Silver
Re: Global warming
CharlesM   4/29/2013 10:19:39 AM
And it would appear that the global warming crowd is using every tool at hand to prevent evidence from being presented. Why is that?

They, whoever "the global warming crowd" are, are not doing that. Your question is a non sequitur. It's the denial crowd that has no scientific legs to stand on. Where is their science?  Whatever it is has been debunked so thoroughly as to make your side a laughingstock, were the damage it's getting away with not so catastrophic.

kf2qd
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Global warming
kf2qd   4/29/2013 10:10:42 AM
ChalresM - So you claim, now support it with evidence. That is the problem with the whole Global Warming business. The support is that a "consensus" of scientists support the claim, but science demands that evidence supports the claim. And it would appear that the global warming crowd is using every tool at hand to prevent evidence from being presented. Why is that?

CharlesM
User Rank
Silver
CharlesM
User Rank
Silver
Re: Global warming
CharlesM   4/29/2013 9:44:45 AM
Great. This lie was just repeated yet again in my mailbox:

"Global Warming: Are the Skeptics Right? Is the science of global warming incontrovertible? Sixteen distinguished scientists say no."

I'm going to flag this every time UBM sends out this same lie over and over again.

THERE IS NO SCIENTIFIC CONTROVERSY ABOUT THIS! ONLY LIES AND IGNORANCE!

10 Indicators of a Human Fingerprint on Climate Change


No, Global Warming has NOT stopped.

The problem now is this: What's the opposite of progess?

It's embarrassing for this industry that a major science trade publisher is so biased toward the political right. What else is going on? A more direct connection to the fossil fuel industry and its vast disinformation propaganda network?

UBM's credibility on every other topic can only be called into question. Can it be relied upon to report anything accurately if it can't get the most easily settled science right?

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