The latest news from the world of electric cars can't be good for EV battery makers.
First, there was Toyota Motor Corp.'s recent announcement that it will cut its sales targets for the all-electric eQ city car in the coming year. In truth, Toyota's planned sales numbers for the eQ had already been miniscule, but the remarks that accompanied the announcement were the real problem. According to an article from Reuters.com, the giant automaker admitted it had misread the ability of battery technology to meet consumer demands.
"The current capabilities of electric vehicles do not meet society's needs, whether it may be the distance the cars can run, or the costs, or how it takes a long time to charge," said Takeshi Uchiyamada, Toyota's vice chairman, in the Reuters story.
Light plug-in hybrids, like the Prius PHV, have a better near-term outlook than pure electric cars with big batteries. (Source: Toyota Motor Corp.)
Then there was the September report from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which questioned the value of tax credits for electric vehicles. The report, titled "Effects of Federal Tax Credits for the Purchase of Electric Vehicles," took special aim at pure electric cars with big batteries.
"Assuming that everything else is equal, the larger an electric vehicle's battery capacity, the greater its cost disadvantage relative to conventional vehicles -- and the larger the tax credit needed to make it cost competitive," the report stated. "Conversely, electric vehicles with small batteries are more cost-competitive."
Finally, there were the recent stories about the Nissan Leaf and Tesla Model S. Articles from greecarreports.com chronicled an ongoing battle between Nissan and some owners of its Leaf electric cars, as a result of those owners complaining that their batteries were suffering from premature range loss in hot climates. Meanwhile, a story in The Wall Street Journal suggested that Tesla Motors Inc., which makes electric cars with giant lithium-ion battery packs, warned investors that it is cutting its revenue targets for 2012 because it has fallen behind its production goals for the Model S electric car.
Some of this could be written off to the media's over-zealous, microscopic examination of the electric car business, of course. But not all. You can't blame the media when the sales figures of electric cars are so disturbingly low. The Leaf is a case in point: Nissan sold only 395 Leafs in June, followed by 685 in July, according to greencarreports.com.
Chuck, the situation with battery packs seems to be following the trajectory of nuclear fusion. Let me explain. The situation in fusion is that we know we can generate energy from it, but can it be sustained and can it be better than break even. There is even a big international project underway. It took them something like ten years to decide where to put it. The point is, that while we think it can be done, the uncertianty is so great that no commercial venture would approach it. In fact, it looks like no single government has the funds or will to do it alone either.
Battery technology is the same. There are commerial companies working on it, but most, if not all, get direct government subsidies. There is still no guarnteed way to get to a battery cost and density that would make all electric vehicles a true competitor. Sometimes these scientifc breakthroughs don't come along, or come along too late to "save" a particular industry.
The final piece of the puzzle is charging time. What happens when you are running low on charge. Even if there is a high voltage charging station nearby you are talking a couple of hours. If you are running low on gasoline, you pull into a gas station, of which there are many, and in a few minutes you are on your way with a "full charge". There has been talk of having battery swap stations for decades. I mean decades. Ever since the first electric vehicle mandates in California this has been a solution discussed by the industry. What that would require is a standardized battery pack. Perhaps you could have a small number. Just think of that in terms of the EV car industry today.
So, as I have been advocating on this site for a while, we need to look to solutions that improve our efficiency while keeping total cost of ownership at current levels or better.
The CBO report on federal tax credits and electric vehicles is incomplete and relies on poor assumptions. They use no actual statistic from the 40,000 PHEV and BEV's (AEV) that are mentioned in the report.
- It assume that the average range of an all-electric is 55 miles (pg. 32)
- It assumes that EV's are only be charged once per day (pg. 7)
- It assumes that EV's are driven fewer miles than an ICE would be by the same driver
The report was obviously written by people who are only academically familiar with electric vehicles. Who chose not to use available real-world data and instead chose "CBO assumptions."
Toyota just does not want to build an EV, they stated that they were focusing on hybrids-only a couple of years ago.
With the failure of the EV Project, the slow roll-out of infrastructure has hindered the demand of the cars. Constant misinformation supported by very deep pockets is another challenge. However, as I continue driving my Nissan LEAF in my daily commute alongside the gas-burners, people will realize that there is a lot of money to be saved by owning an EV.
As I've said before, the present batteries are fine, it's the overweight, overpriced, overteched EV's big auto is making because they don't want them in great numbers.
Next your charging point isn't true as EV batteries, especially ones in lighter, more eff EV's can be charged in 15 minutes with the present charghe points being put in now.
EV's are not designed for long distance, but local driving,go somewhere, park/charge while doing whatever it is you went to do, then go to the next thing. But rarely would one do over 60 miles/day according to national studies of actual daily travel needs.
Changing battery packs was normal in 1900'1910 as NYC Taxi , delivery trucks had them then, No? A Better lace has stations in Tokyo and building them in Cal Hawaii, Israel, Denmark, etc.
Most in fact would be used for commuting with side trips going to, from work which it's perfect for 90% of US car trips. If one needs longer range they can rent or own a small fueled generator onboard, Lotus makes a 35kw unit that weighs 115lbs IIRC, though most smartly done EV's need less than 1/3 that takes away all charging needs.
Who one buy a Hoe to plow a field?
EV 'problems' all have reasonable solutions but too many don't want to think critically enough to find them by bias, laziness, ignorance though I have to admit the common propaganda put out by big oil, auto certainly would make one think they are not practical.
But are we not suppose to be designers, engineers here who should be able to look at the real facts and tell them from the obvious propaganda?
Charles I noticed your quote of me, EV's are overweight, overpriced, overteched in EV article in the print DN's. That big Auto is against EV's is a fact, not a idea as Chevron did buy up the NiMH patents and did stop others from producing EV size batteries from them, No? GM did crush rather than sell the EV-1's at a nice profit, No? Is it parnoid thinking if they actually do it or just a fact?
Luckily there are now so many diffeent battery types especially of various Lithium versions they can no longer buy them all.
Here is what with a better looking body, 100 mile battery range and using medium tech composites EV's should be.
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I don't have time now to address this adequately, but for now let me just point out that the problems ramping up production of the Tesla S have nothing at all to do with its battery pack or the size of that pack. This is all anyone needs to know to see the bias of this article. (2nd quick point: Why is the Chevy Volt doing so well? That doesn't figure in with your premise. No matter, you'll re-spam your subscribers yet again with the link to the old articles about the bogus and overblown "Chevy Volt Battery Fires!!" any day now. That'll scare potential buyers off yet again.)
UBM Electronics publications never stop their drumbeat of doubt and pessimism about the technologies for environmental sustainability and the need for any at all (e.g., climate "skepticism," etc., ad nauseam). In spite of those technologies thoroughly dominating your articles and advertising over the last few years. A few examples: Avnet Chevy Volt Drive, the "greening" of power supplies with lower power, reduced standby current and power factor correction, wind turbine innovations, and LED lighting. This is where your and the industry's growth is, but you can't stop bashing it.
Is it is the controversy you want because it's good for business, or is it something more about UBM's politics?
The main problem with EVs is one of marketing. The travel profile that today's EV are designed for (short range urban transport of a limited number of passengers, little luggage space, no towing capabilities) are better addressed by mass transit. Even if true running costs of EVs would be competitive to a similar sized IC vehicle the same traffic and parking hassels as well as sky-high insurance rates apply to both technologies. Whenever I travel to places like mid-town New York or Chicago during business hours I wouldn't think of driving in the central city. I know several adults who live in Manhattan who don't own a car, don't want a car, and drive only when out-of-town using rental vehicles. So this leaves the market for EVs being a second car for the suburbanite who wants to over-spend for a vehicle that could be nicely addressed by one of the many MUCH cheaper IC, high mileage offerings on the market.
Yes it is true that EV cars could be used as a commuter car tha will go 60 miles, and this would satisfy many commuting needs 90% of the time for most people, but to what benefit? A similarly small gas car would still be cheaper by comparison, and there would be no limits imposed on driving distance. How convienient is it to drive an hour, stop and fire up a generator to recharge the battery, drive another hour, stop to reecharge the battery, etc. How stupid an idea, and this has become a gas powered car at this point by the way. And, everytime I want to drive 70 miles I have to go rent a gas car?
The arguements I'm hearing in favor of electric cars are basically that the consumer is too stupid to know how good he/she would have it with an electric car. I'll agree that there are a lot of stupid people out there, but when it comes down to it most people manage to figure out what works for them, and obviously most do not want to stop the car every 60 miles to recharge it. Where in the heck are they even going to stop at anyway, just pull off on the shoulder or in the ditch?
How about everybody that wants to drive an electric car just go buy one (and how about just use your own money to do that without expecting the rest of us to help you pay for it), let the rest of us choose what we want to spend our money on, instead of worrying so much about how the rest of us can be forced to drive golf carts too. I'm quite OK if you want to drive a golf cart, doesn't bother me a bit, but I'll stick with my truck or MG Midget for the time being.
Brian, your statement that there is a lot of money to be saved with an EV is false. You may want to look at other posts that I have made on this subject on the Design News site.
The problem again is the cost of the batteries. If you want to get to some serious range you are talking about the Tesla cars. The original Tesla roadster could get over 250 miles. The battery, on the other hand, weighs 900 lbs and costs the manufacturer $25,000. To replace it in the field costs $40,000. This is not worth it.
The other issue with EVs is the driving pattern. Sure, most trips are short. But most people do take longer trips with their car. Having a vehicle that can only be used around town, whcih would require a vehicle to go on trips with (or to haul more that a small amount of stuff) is a luxury. There are plenty of times when my wife and I need to drive a distance at the same time. So, owning one EV and one ICE powered vehicle is not practical. If you are in the a situation where you can own a third or fourth then you don't need to suppossed savings you are talking about.
I guess we are so used to sitting in a car with a bomb in our trunk (gas tank) and so we nitpick the EV batteries. I think they have their place and we should not expect them to be like gasoline or diesel vehicles. It just needs to be inexpensive, easy to charge, and safe. I don't expect to drive non-stop 1000 miles in any car I have. Why expect itfrom electric?
The reality is that there is a lot more power per pound in gasoline than there will ever be in batteries. And that is OK. It goes according to need. We don't complain because our flashlights go dark and say "I wish it had a gasoline engine instead of this stupid battery!"
So with that in mind, it seems to me that the car companies are chasing the tax relief instead of the market. There should not be a bounty on gasoline cars, i.e. tax deduction on electric, but let the market decide. Look at the success of the Smart car. We just need a "smart" electric car that fits the needs of the short range driver, and that is a lot of us. It just needs to be inexpensive, easy to charge, and safe. I don't expect to drive non-stop 1000 miles in any car I have. Why expect it from electric? But I repeat myself...
Tesla Motors plans to roll out a “compelling, affordable electric car” that will sell for about half the price of its high-profile Model S by the end of 2016, company chairman Elon Musk said last week.
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