If recent sales numbers are any indication, Tesla Motors' goal of 50,000 battery packs a year could be a long way off.
A new study by Lux Research Inc. shows that the entire industry’s sales of batteries for plug-in hybrids reached about 1.4 GWh per quarter in 2013, just a small fraction of what Tesla Motors plans to produce by itself at its Gigafactory, which is expected to launch in 2017.
”This shows how hugely ambitious Tesla’s plans are,” Cosmin Laslau, research analyst for Lux Research, told Design News. “Tesla is essentially hoping they can sell 10 times more (electric) cars than what we are seeing now.”
Panasonic’s plug-in car battery sales climbed sharply over the past two years, largely on the strength of Tesla’s Model S sales.
In the study, Lux Research’s Automotive Battery Tracker showed that battery sales in the automotive market tripled over the past three years. During that period, Panasonic’s sales climbed sharply, enabling the company to take the top spot in the plug-in vehicle market with 39% of sales, compared to 25% for NEC, and 9% for LG Chem. Panasonic’s sudden rise was significant, Laslau said, because it was done almost exclusively through sales to Tesla.
”A year or two ago, Panasonic was nowhere and now they’ve taken over the market,” Laslau told us. “It really shows the importance of having a strong automotive partnership.”
Tesla’s Gigafactory represents the next big step for electric cars. The factory, which is still in the concept stage, would consume about 15 times as much land as today’s biggest battery plants. If successful, it potentially could drive battery costs down to a point that would transform electric cars into products for mainstream buyers. Tesla will annually build 35 GWh worth of battery packs, using their own cells. Then they will build an additional 15 GWh worth of packs using cells they buy from other manufacturers. It’s seen as a huge risk, however, because it relies on a massive increase in sales of pure electric cars, which haven’t sold well up to now.
While the Gigafactory plans are ambitious, however, Tesla has shown through recent performance that it’s capable of transforming the market. The company’s huge 85-kWh battery pack has vaulted Panasonic into the production lead almost singlehandedly, Laslau said. “This is a stunning shift in market share,” he told us.
Tesla HAS to grow by ten times or so in the next few years to make a dent in the car market, and it's on the exponential curve, so it's possible.
IC engines could not exist without massive gov subsides and protection from liability.
The research and development that goes into car batteries will also help all portable devices. Tesla has a market for the batteries even if it's not cars.
The reason Panasonic has done so well in the market is thier batteries are the best for the price. http://lygte-info.dk/review/batteries2012/Common18650Summary%20UK.html
How did this get to be about politics?
But here's my 2 cents on that: the founders were Locke Liberals who believed in the social contract and a democratic republic, so using liberal as and epitaph is weird. Perhaps you have been confused because Obama and 80% of the democrats are Reagan/Burke conservative for the most part. They believe in rule by the rich. Obama and the dems want kinder gentler rule by the rich, but they have supported deregulation, privatization, monopolization, the insurance industry, lower taxes and protected bankers from prosecution. Obama's admin has pushed fracking and nuclear all over the world.
I agree Charles and the only way he can do it is by making the market.
And he has shown very well he can make new markets.
Vs the others are failing because they are hoping for a market, not a good business strategy.
Only those who have a captive market like Tesla and SolarCity does that no one else will do will survive.
Soon GM will let LG go as will other car makers/markets leaving little for the rest.
Big gird is no market as they won't buy any, only using those paid with grants. And Cal utilities bitched so much solar/wind were variable Cal is forcing them to add big batteries!! That'll teach them ;^p
Other than EV the only other market is home, building storage which SC is going gangbusters.
And just found a front end totaled Leaf EV down the street so soon I'll have a 150-200 mile range all composite EV for $4k in parts, my skill ;^D
One should cautious of underestimating the reasoning of an opponent in these matters.
Just because the current offerings are ill reasoned does not indicate they lack the capacity to do better. These are intelligent folks, but their positions are largely inline with the prevailing orthodoxy and that leads to less rigorous examination of ones positions. We have the privilage (and I mean that seriously) of being challenged daily in what we believe and that sharpens us for the conflicts.
And indeed, I have found myself in agreement with both of the gents I have opposed today at different times. They are not fools-we just disagree strongly on these issues.
It being Preakness weekend........ my money's on you, Bunter.
There is no reasoning with liberals. I think I read every anti-Republican, Bush, Reagan cliche in one or two posts..... No use attempting to respond or rebut with logic or factual argument.
My one observation to offer here (on the subject article, actually....lol) is that Tesla is really risking it all with, I guess one could call, "thinking outside the box". Innovation and advancement in technology, etc. seem to go the fartherest (and fastest) when this happens. Perhaps the base chemistries, etc. will further advance in the ensuing time-period of the gigafactory development, to further make the battery limitations less severe.
However, the reality at present is that without major governmental subsidies and other finanacial incentives. the old ICE will remain where it is.... number one.
Said might, not will. Can't keep up with the pace of this blog.
Never watch Fox ( assume that was what Faux is about). They are all pathetic, fast food blah.
Not much of my knowledge there buddy, Pretty much just historical items with pretty obvious conclusions.
I noticed you chose to go with an ad hominem approach rather than take the risk of actually addressing any particulars. Cool. By all means do some research and see if the items I mentioned are hisorically accurate or not. Then address them or don't.
It might be interesting which of us an outside observer would say was applying reasoning/logic and which was not.
It doesn't. But that didn't take long for you to go full Tea Party. It must be nice to be so knowledgeable and understand all the problems of the world, their causes/effects, knowing who to blame and what the solutions are if only you were king.
People like you cannot be reasoned with. Enjoy your FauxNews.
Tesla Motors’ $35,000, 200-mile electric car may not revolutionize the auto industry by itself, but it could serve as a starting point for a long, steady climb to a day when half of the world’s vehicles will be plug-ins.
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