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Captain Hybrid

Tesla's Gigafactory Would Bring Us Closer to Reality

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Jim_E
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Consumer adoption
Jim_E   3/20/2014 11:39:17 AM
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It seems like I should be an ideal candidate for an electric car, since I'm a gEEky engineer with a mere eight or so mile round trip daily commute.  But, I really don't have any interest in owning a straight electric car.

The whole idea of the thing running out of charge and not having a way to remotely quick charge it (like a gas can) gives me the creeps.  I suppose as a third car that I only drove to work, it would be fine, but for that purpose, I couldn't justify spending barely any money for it.

Gasoline sure is convenient and has a nice existing infrastructure.

William K.
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Re: Consumer adoption
William K.   3/20/2014 12:05:19 PM
Jim is certainly correct! What would be quite acceptable would be a hybrid vehicle, with either a gas engine or a CNG or propane fueld engine as both backup and boost power source. The main motivation is the reality that excessive discharge tends to destroy a lithium battery pack, and with a replacement costing more than a new engine that is an event to be avoided. And still no attention is given to the large range reductions brought about by using either an electric heater or air conditioning.

So would I pay $20K for a second vehicle? If it were a hybrid of some sort, probably, if it was a pure electric vehicle with a $10,000 battery pack, NO. Running out of gas is inconvenient but it does no real damage. Running out of battery would be expensive.

LetoAtreidesII
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Really, Telsa only exists now because of goverment hand outs
LetoAtreidesII   3/20/2014 12:04:58 PM
Pinning hopes on Tesla is a joke.  The company only exists because of big goverment money (our Money) from his buddies in DC and Sacramento.  Even today it looses money on it car production and only creates a profit because of goverment credits (again our money) see LA time article

http://articles.latimes.com/2013/may/05/business/la-fi-electric-cars-20130506

And all of this for a overpriced sports car coming in at 80K.  This cannot and will not continue.  Ca is broke and so is DC giving money to these companies will soon dry up and then the whole house of EVs will collapse

Pure EV's are just not that practical at the moment even if battery costs can be reduced.  Now the Hybrid that is a different story.  I dont have one because they are mainly small vechiles at the moment and I am still 8 yrs out from buying another vechile.  I do a 12yr cycle.  I buy new and squeeze all I can out of it typically 12yrs in the snowy salty north.

 

 

 

 

 

William K.
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Re: Really, Telsa only exists now because of goverment hand outs
William K.   3/20/2014 12:10:29 PM
I also question the wisdom in producing a huge factory to make batteries for cars that folks are not buying. Something smells funny about whatever words are being used to gain investors, since the smarter investors go by more than emotional choices.

BUT perhaps the same batteries would also be useful as energy storage systems for wind, solar, and other forms of power generation, in which case it may be a good choice. But presently the future is a bit hard to predict, as to wether logic and wisdom, or hysterical emotions, will prevail in shaping our path.

LetoAtreidesII
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Re: Really, Telsa only exists now because of goverment hand outs
LetoAtreidesII   3/20/2014 1:05:59 PM
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William, I agree they may work in a energy storeage or even HEVs,  My big probelm is that this is done as a way to get more goverment grants loans (again our money without us getting product).

Maybe i am old fashion but I think Telsa should put their own money into this if they think it will work and then they will either stand or fall base upon whether they can make it work. 

 

imagineer1000
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Re: Really, Telsa only exists now because of goverment hand outs
imagineer1000   3/20/2014 1:47:31 PM
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I don't necessarily disagree we should have fewer subsidies, but don't forget that most of our energy and research is subsidized - even relatively mature and profitable industries such as oil and nuclear or ethanol.  Much of it indirectly as tax exemptions and rebates, government research, price controls, trade restrictions, etc. Letting the marketplace decide what works would be fine if companies took a longer term view of profits, and it was possible to assign the total cost of damages to a producer. 

LetoAtreidesII
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Re: Really, Telsa only exists now because of goverment hand outs
LetoAtreidesII   3/20/2014 4:53:59 PM
"I don't necessarily disagree we should have fewer subsidies, but don't forget that most of our energy and research is subsidized - even relatively mature and profitable industries such as oil and nuclear or ethanol.  Much of it indirectly as tax exemptions and rebates, government research, price controls, trade restrictions, etc."

This is the lie when people complain about big oil getting goverment money is is the standard tax credit for R&D, equipment ivestment and the like.

When we talk about EV we are talking about massive grants, O.00 Interest loans, Free Tax for X yrs.  All this is on top of the standard business credits we all get for R&D and investment.   Hands down it is not contest.

imagineer1000
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Re: Really, Telsa only exists now because of goverment hand outs
imagineer1000   3/20/2014 6:32:42 PM
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I agree there is no comparison in the amount of subsidies.  So ignore tax credits, etc.  Government bailout credit to just GM was $49.5 Billion.  Ultimate amount recouped from GM was ~$39 Billion.  We the taxpayers are out ~$10 Billion.  And that was a direct subsidy to a single auto company.  And GM does not produce any vehicle that I would buy or want.  Then there is the Chrysler bailout which cost taxpayers ~$1.3 billion.  US corn ethanol subsidies are between $5.5 billion and $7.3 billion per year, and the latter is still ongoing. 

Don't whine about subsidizing technologies relevant to electrics if you are willing to ignore the order of magnitude larger subsidies for hydrocarbons and ICE vehicles (and for that matter energy in general e.g.  dams for hydro, fusion, nuclear, coal - which of course are relevant to electrics as well).

There is a need for electric vehicles.  If you feel they don't meet your needs then don't buy one.  They're not for everyone and fear not - unless someone makes a radical storage technology discovery they will not magically make ICE's disappear - they are the best choice for many applications.  I have no intent of giving up my 4x4 pickup for instance.  But an electric could easily meet 75% of my households mileage needs/95% of the trips in a more economical fashion than an ICE vehicle could if the price were below ~$25k, and a solar panel installation would allow me to reduce my dependence on the large energy companies as a bonus. 

LetoAtreidesII
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Re: Really, Telsa only exists now because of goverment hand outs
LetoAtreidesII   3/20/2014 10:38:01 PM
How is bailout of a auto company an oil subsidy The auto bailout were to buy off the UAW. Besides waisting money on the Volt was a big reason GM was in that hole. I did not see Ford needing big brother. Auto co are not big oil, they are the ones you want to make you evs I am not against EV but they should stand or fall on their own they are not new EVs were around when Ford built the model T . ICE engine were are are more practical and hybrids even more practical they are the best of both worlds.

Charles Murray
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Re: Really, Telsa only exists now because of goverment hand outs
Charles Murray   3/20/2014 7:43:43 PM
I, too, am a little baffled by the response of investors to electric cars, William K. One bit of logic I often hear is that batteries will follow the same meteoric rise as we saw in PCs and other electronic products. Engineers know that's an invalid comparison, however. Even Bill Gates, who owns five battery companies, has said that the comparison is not valid and that we have all been spoiled by Moore's Law. In 100 years, the amazing rise of PCs and the Internet will define our era in retrospect. To expect that all products will follow that same growth path, however, is completely unrealistic.

William K.
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Re: Really, Telsa only exists now because of goverment hand outs
William K.   3/21/2014 9:32:31 AM
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Charles, that observation called "Moores Law" was based primarily on improvements in the production process, both in line width for lithography and in the ability to produce finer details. None of it was based on fundamental breakthroughs, which is what the battery industry needs. Lots of people are working on different chemistries, but there are a whole lot of challenges that must be overcome, since high capacity to volume, a large number of charge/discharge cycles, chemical safety, and low cost are all requirements. And the cost will be driven by the chemistry, since a great battery using unobtainium would still not be a viable product.

Aside from that, I find the rants against our present vehicle types quite amazing. And I still hold that our inexpensive access to personal transportation is a large part of what has made our country so great. And while we do have problems, I know that our country is great.

Charles Murray
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Re: Really, Telsa only exists now because of goverment hand outs
Charles Murray   3/21/2014 5:39:16 PM
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Well said, William K. If petroleum-based fuels were introduced today, they'd be considered one of the world's great discoveries. We dwell so much on their environmental shortcomings that they're now considered by many to be a plague, which couldn't be further from the truth.

Trenth
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Re: Really, Telsa only exists now because of goverment hand outs
Trenth   3/21/2014 5:52:04 PM
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I don't see how fossils fuels would be seen as any kind of miracle today.    All the easy oil is long gone, the days of 300 to one EROI are gone, we are at about 1.2.  Without gov breaks, solar, wind backed with waste to fuels and hydro are far cheaper now.  





Fossils WERE miraculous at the time and allowed our great progress, but that time is gone.  





William K.
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Re: Really, Telsa only exists now because of goverment hand outs
William K.   3/21/2014 9:58:31 PM
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I observe that methane gas produced in landfills is a real hazard, and it appears in a quite short time, often less than a year. So my conclusion is that it should be much simpler to produce a new type of "fossile fuel" without that incredibly much effort. Since some farmers use manure in a fermentor to produce enough methane to be a worthwhile energy source, I am further convinced that the time frames so frequently recited are not as accurate as many believe. Besides all of that, there is still a whole lot of various hydrocarbon material in the ground, just waiting for an effective extration method to be developed. Remember that all of the oil was supposed to be used up back around 1954, I think it was. Predictions based on wishful thinking are often found to have been incorrect.

 

Trenth
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Re: Really, Telsa only exists now because of goverment hand outs
Trenth   3/20/2014 3:45:09 PM
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Gas cars only exist because of gov subsidies and protection.

 

We build the roads for them, we go to ware for the oil, we do the research for fracking, and extraction methods, and give giant tax breaks to the oil companies.

 

The fossil industry has gotten those essential gov breaks for nearly 100 years.

 

 

please get some perspective.  

William K.
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Re: Really, Telsa only exists now because of goverment hand outs
William K.   3/20/2014 4:55:59 PM
The truth about cars and inexpensive dependable personal transportation is that it has given the citizens of the USA a degree of personal freedom not found elsewhere. Not that we presently have as much freedom as 50 yers ago, but still we have quite a bit. The second truth is that most of us who appreciate that personal freedom chose to have the government do the things that kept it going and enhanced our freedom. Amazinly enough, at one time our government tended to act primarily in ways that supported personal freedom. 

One very good way to offend a lot of people is to claim that we should not have so much freedom because the current government is so much wiser than we, the public, are. If the concept of being free and needing to make your own decisions is not what you like, I am certain that Mr. Putin can find room for you someplace. SO please stay away from things that will definitely reduce my personal freedom, OK?

LetoAtreidesII
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Re: Really, Telsa only exists now because of goverment hand outs
LetoAtreidesII   3/20/2014 5:05:50 PM
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Trenth said "Gas cars only exist because of gov subsidies and protection.
We build the roads for them, we go to ware for the oil, we do the research for fracking, and extraction methods, and give giant tax breaks to the oil companies.
The fossil industry has gotten those essential gov breaks for nearly 100 years.
please get some perspective. "

I call BS.  This is not true

- Roads really I gues the great Roman road builders were all in for big oil.  Road are for movement of goods not big Oil.

- War, The 60's are callling,  Wars are fought to protect safety "people" and economic stability.  Yes we have gone to war to protect oil trade, but do you think if we went all in for EV we would not need to protect sources of say Lithium, Copper other special metals essential to EV.  Most of these are in foreign non-frendly area's as well.

What you call subsidies for oil are business tax credit that all businesses like my engineering business get for R&D, capital investment and product production in US.  The EV marketer get these same credits along with.

- Huge Grant (500mil Solindra anyone)

- Zero interest loan

- Tax free building site for XX yrs

- Huge special becuase we like EV tax credits per unit see:

http://articles.latimes.com/2013/may/05/business/la-fi-electric-cars-20130506

Again I call BS I have proven it.  Give me the fact were I am wrong "Facts, not talking points"

 

Trenth
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Re: Really, Telsa only exists now because of goverment hand outs
Trenth   3/20/2014 10:00:23 PM
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Just search wars for oil

you are in the fringe for thinking we don't go to war for oil.  

http://www.cnn.com/2013/03/19/opinion/iraq-war-oil-juhasz/

Lithium and copper are 100% recyclable, not fossils fuels.  

Can electric cars take the oil depletion allowance?   

Fracking, developed by and promoted by the US gov.

Oil spills, paid for by the people and gov.  

Gov paid R&D for fossils industry is huge.  http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/technologies/engines/   and for over 100 years.   

The gov keeps a strategic research of oil at our expense.

http://cleantechnica.com/2012/08/03/oil-gas-over-13-times-more-in-historical-subsidies-than-clean-energy/   the comparable early stage gov break for fossils fuels are 13 times larger than for electric cars.   

Corn ethanol is a Internal combustion car subsidy.  

Without subsidies breaks and protection, electricity prices would

be: rooftop solar Power: 3-6 cents/KWH
Wind Power: 6-7 cents/kWh
Nuclear Power: 11-20+ cents/kWh
Coal Power: 9-32+ cents/kWh
http://cleantechnica.com/2011/06/20/wind-power-subsidies-dont-compare-to-fossil-fuel-nuclear-subsidies/#ABfIXAl3UjBqeQOP.99 
but who gets the giant gov breaks?????
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/the-real-deal-on-u.s.-subsidies-fossils-72b-renewable-energys-12b
solar 2.3, wind 12B, ethanol 17B, 70B fossils. nukes 120B$


 the linked articles do a better job of explaining where there numbers come from.

The total gov break per industry are far more important than the gov breaks per unit.





LetoAtreidesII
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Re: Really, Telsa only exists now because of goverment hand outs
LetoAtreidesII   3/20/2014 11:01:55 PM
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Yes wars are fought to protect our resources oil being one I never said other wise but as for your ignoring of the heavy metal needed to supply all the material to make a world of EVs it is short sighted at best. sure some can be recycled but before we get it in the first place wars will be fought over the ground to get a 10th of what is needed for all in EV and we will not be fighting 3rd world nuts but China. We have at least another century of readily available oil even though the dosayers keep saying otherwise. I lived though the 70 when we were suppose to be out of oil by the 90s now we have a Find bigger than the Mideast under our very feet As for your links first they are green sites that to say they mislead is being generous. They call normal operational tax breaks for business a subsidy and compare that to money given away to companies not for business credit but as grants, or special green credits These are not the same that is like saying deducting your home mortgage is equal to government paying your mortgage As for electric pricing that is a joke I have roof top solar and can tell you numbers are way low even with today lower panel prices when you do a full cost analysis

Trenth
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Re: Really, Telsa only exists now because of goverment hand outs
Trenth   3/21/2014 12:04:03 AM
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Wars eat some 50% of our federal taxes. Oil/gas is the only resource we have gone to war for.

https://www.warresisters.org/federalpiechart

Our military is also the biggest user of oil.

Just search there is no lithium shortage

http://money.cnn.com/2010/07/12/news/companies/electric_vehicle_lithium_shortage.fortune/

The EROI for oil is fast approaching 1 or less.  We are using all tertiary methods of extraction.    No one thought we would be stupid enough to sacrifice our water and environment.  all the easy oil is gone.  Now we are into shale oil and coal to liquids, while we still pay big bucks to bury our wastes instead of converting them to fuels.  http://8020vision.com/2011/10/17/energy-return-on-investment-eroi-for-u-s-oil-and-gas-discovery-and-production/

http://www.westernresourceadvocates.org/land/oseroi.php

We have dumped 400 times all the volcanoes GHG into the air and raised CO2 levels to the highest in 15 million years.   We now regularly have sick building events caused by high CO2 levels.  Warming has not slowed, land temperature raise has.   The temperature of a mixed water ice system does not go up as you add heat until the ice is gone, and the volume of ice has been shrinking, while the oceans are heating up. 

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/pip/2012GL051106.shtml Heat content. World heat content is up. Tracking CO2 and GHG since 1960.

Climate change is real.

Not to mention the mercury, heavy metals pollution from fossils fuels.   

6 corporations own 90% of the media, but you don't trust anyone else?   wow.  It's all linked and backed up, try judging for yourself, and come back with specific complaints.  

http://www.businessinsider.com/these-6-corporations-control-90-of-the-media-in-america-2012-6

Most peer review research is paid for and favorable to big industries.

Getting tax breaks for depleting the world's resources is nuts.  

http://www.xconomy.com/national/2011/12/12/energy-subsidies-a-historical-perspective/2/

http://cen.acs.org/articles/89/i51/Long-History-US-Energy-Subsidies.html

http://www.thecro.com/content/manifest-subsidy

Bunter
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Re: Really, Telsa only exists now because of goverment hand outs
Bunter   3/21/2014 9:42:58 AM
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Trenth,

You stated-"Wars eat some 50% of our federal taxes"

Defense spending is approximately 18% of the federal budget and nothing like all of that can be attributed to wars. 

Medicare/Medicaid and Social Security are about 48%.

Just thought you should know.

This is not to justify any wars, but it underemines your point(s) when your numbers are false.

 

Cheerio,

Dennis

Trenth
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Re: Really, Telsa only exists now because of goverment hand outs
Trenth   3/21/2014 5:47:21 PM
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I said 50% of our federal taxesw, not our budget.   Go to the links and it's all explained.  Did you think the war folks don't mislead the people on purpose?  

Bunter
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Re: Really, Telsa only exists now because of goverment hand outs
Bunter   3/22/2014 12:55:09 AM
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Um Trenth, you say "federal taxes" the chart you referance says "income taxes".

Pretty big difference.  When we talk federal taxes we are talking the federal budget (plus what they print, borrow, steal etc. yes that is a approx. a quarter of the budget). 

I didn't look in depth at the chart but I did note that the "past military" section includes "80% of the interest on the debt".  So they select part of the federal taxation (income) and assign all of military spending to it and fatten that up with 80% of the debt interest and pensions to the military. 

And we are still short of 50% (45%).  Only 27% without the extras.  Ya, I guess they can play with the numbers that way and get a "statistic" that sounds scarier.  Yay for them.  As a percentage of the fed budget military is far smaller than in the past (I think it's too big myself, OK?).   I don't think the "war folks" are the only one putting out misleading stats.

And as noted, not all defense spending is "war spending", and the "past military" category is pretty weak as an incluion under "war" also.  Broadly equating dissimilar terms like that is not going to work either.

Honestly don't think you gained any ground.

Well, I need some sleep.  Have a great weekend.

Cheerio.

Dennis

Trenth
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Re: Really, Telsa only exists now because of goverment hand outs
Trenth   3/22/2014 1:53:46 AM
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Federal taxes are not the federal budget.  economics 101 sorry.

Search "federal taxes", everyone else seems sure that means federal income taxes, even the IRS.  

Reagan and the others went into debt to finance the military, we spent trillions on wars, it's pretty reasonable.  

You didn't read the link in detail, do you do that as an engineer?  

I suggest folks go read the link themselves, the USA spends more on wars than the rest of the world combined or at least the next 10 countries, and you think we can afford to do that, or that it does not take a large part of our budget?   War costs have been buried all over our budget, this should be common knowledge. 

https://www.warresisters.org/sites/default/files/2015%20pie%20chart%20-%20high%20res.pdf   

All this is a distraction, we go to war for oil, for fossils.  That's a giant gov subsidies for fossils.

Even without the gov wars for fossils, gov breaks for fossils are many times that for solar wind or waste to fuels, and have been even at the same stages of development.  





 

Bunter
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Re: Really, Telsa only exists now because of goverment hand outs
Bunter   3/26/2014 3:58:01 PM
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Hi Trenth,

http://www.factcheck.org/2008/06/breakdown-of-government-revenue/

Figures are from the WH office of management and budget.

Note chart labeled "Percent composition of tax reciepts by source".

Income taxes are just short of 60% for that year (2007).

Yes, I missed your use of "taxes" rather than "budget" in your first post.  My mistake. Your equating federal taxes and federal income taxes is a mistake.  Own it.

Put the rest of the taxes back in and my 18% is roughly equivalent to the 27% in your income taxes pie chart.  No mystery hidden military cost. 

"You didn't read the link in detail, do you do that as an engineer?  "-This is a classic red herring deflection.  Bring up something irrelevent to the discussion ("squirrel!") and then fail to address the concerns the other party has brought up.
The equating of defense spending as "war" spending is still inaccurate and the adding in veterans/military pensions and 80% of the debt cost to pad out the numbers and then rounding that fictitious 45% up to 50% does not fly.

Anyway, you are inaccurate and willing to employ ad hominem attacks to deflect the discussion from points you quite apparrently do not have answers for-I am done with this discussion.

For the record-I think we spend way to much on defense.

Your haphazard approach and poor attitude do not advance the causes you espouse but rather do them damage and alienate potential allies.

With reduced regard,

Dennis

 

 

Cabe Atwell
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Re: Really, Telsa only exists now because of goverment hand outs
Cabe Atwell   3/26/2014 4:39:24 PM
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On the other hand, war has brought about significant advancements in technology, such as the jet age, GPS and drones, which we can use to find more oil. Seriously, EVs are here to stay and it's only a matter of time before the technology is refined enough to 'wean' us off of fossil fuels. It just takes time. 

Trenth
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Re: Really, Telsa only exists now because of goverment hand outs
Trenth   3/26/2014 8:30:19 PM
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Federal taxes are federal income, and their only income. Social security is a trust fund paid out to the participants. Social security is a legal requirement, it is not "budgeted" is must be paid. It's is something the participant a legally entitled to because the paid into it, and it's solvent for at least 20 years.

It was started as the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI).

Calling it a tax is a misnomer.

But incorrectly including the SS trust fund only decreases the percentage to about 30% of our Federal tax revenues to wars: more than the next ten nations combined.

No nation has ever spent so much on war and survived.

Since the debt was going down till Reagan raised it for wars, 100% of the debt is because of war.

http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2007/03/05/on_war_costs_bush_is_master_of_disguise/ yes our war costs are delberatly hidden.

You want to think the war department is doing defense, look around, we have bases all over the world, no one has bases in our country.

 

The wars are for fossils fuels.    

imagineer1000
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More information...
imagineer1000   3/20/2014 1:55:12 PM
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When you say $20k, are you implying you could produce the rest of the car for $20k - $16k = $4k?  That sounds pretty low.  If that really is the case, if you reduced the battery pack for a 100 mi range the car would only cost $12k???  If it wasn't as ugly as the Nissan Leaf, I suspect a LOT of people would buy it as a second car.  Or if you were poor - as a first car.

Charles Murray
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U.S. Energy Information Administration
Charles Murray   3/20/2014 7:49:56 PM
One of the little-known studies of the past year was the U.S. Energy Administration's 2014 energy outlook, which predicted that just 1% of vehicles would be electric by 2040. The study went on to say that half of that 1% would be pure electric and the other half would be plug-in hybrids. The study received little press, however, because it was released on December 27th, two days after Christmas, when media coverage was slow.

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/er/

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