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Captain Hybrid

Tesla to Produce 'Affordable EV' by 2016

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naperlou
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Re: $30k isn't affordable
naperlou   6/12/2013 1:17:03 PM
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eafpres, you have a good point there.  For $10,000, the price difference, you can buy a lot of gas.  The cars you are talking about probably get about 30 MPG average.  That equals about 75,000 miles at $4 per gallon.  The cost of charging is not high, but it is not zero.  For the flexibility you get from a gasoline powered car, I think that Musk is still a ways off from providing what is needed.  In fact, in four years mileage of the gasoline powered cars will probably be a good bit better than 30.

Tool_maker
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Platinum
Today
Tool_maker   6/12/2013 1:07:09 PM
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  This afternoon we will fire up our Ford Expedition and drive to Table Rock Lake (235 miles) We will be there until Sunday when we will return home (235 miles), towing our boat. Then next week Friday we will go to the Gulf Coast of Mississippi (670 miles) towing our boat, where we will spend 8 days before returning (670 miles). While in Mississippi we intend to spend a day in New Orleans (130 miles round trip) and another day in Gulf Shores, Alabama (200 miles round trip). Oh yeah, I forgot to mention there will be 5 adults plus an infant in a car seat.

  My question: which of these vehicles will accomodate all of this and how much of MY TAX DOLLAR will I have to fork over to subsidize the above? Talking about EVs; which are partly paid for with money from a broke government, who has to borrow money from China; and is powered by a coal fired generator in another part of the country and claiming that is the future is terrifying.

  EVs are a niche vehicle that will no more rule the roads than the turbine engines from the 60s or the Wankle engines of the 70's. Industry has made such phenominal steps in producing more fuel efficient, safe vehicles that can only be derailed by attention to something as single purpose as an EV.

  Lastly, how are you proposing to dispose of all those batteries when they have died and what are you using to replace the rare earth minerals (which are required to produce these boondoggles) and are controlled by our good friends in China?

TJ McDermott
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Blogger
Re: Infrastructure demand
TJ McDermott   6/12/2013 12:27:49 PM
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EXACTLY!  It's bad enough to deal with plug configurations and frequencies when one travels with small electrical devices.

What I fear will happen is a standards war of the type that Blu-Ray eventually won.

One could also point to how long it took 802.11N standard to come out of draft.

eafpres
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Gold
Re: $30k isn't affordable
eafpres   6/12/2013 12:17:37 PM
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Hi Peter--you make my point stronger, thanks.  Tesla achieving $30k when the market already is around $20k.  Would be like opening a chain to compete with Starbucks and charging $6 instead of $4.50.  If the market for premium lattes is already at $4.50, why would anyone enter with an offering 1.5x that?

I think Tesla is doing a lot of good, pushing the technology, learning a lot about battery packs etc.  So I think overall they are good for the market.  But they need some serious market research if they think they are going after "affordability".

PeterC1
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Silver
Re: $30k isn't affordable
PeterC1   6/12/2013 12:12:51 PM
Dear eafpres,

 

please consider and comment: The 100% electric Nissan Leaf 2013 base model "S" costs $21,300 after federal incentives. If you happen to life in California, you get a $2500 rebate check in the mail about 4 weeks after your purchase. That brings the car to a $18,800 price point.

Range: I would venture to guess 90% of all commutes in the US can be handled with a 100 mile range that I experience (about 75 miles per US standard). I also would guess that many lower income house holds manage to have 2 cars, one of which could be electric. 

So the future is here for real adoption and we are seeing it unfold slowly. 

 

 

jhankwitz
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Platinum
Re: Infrastructure demand
jhankwitz   6/12/2013 12:04:42 PM
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And I know of no standards being created to enable owners of any make of EV to use the same charging stations as everyone else. It takes many years to establish a world-wide standard, and then many more years after that to initiate an infrastructure.

It looks like this whole EV thing will collapse on itself if they don't get moving on long term collaborative planning.

eafpres
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Gold
DoE tool to calculate equivalent gasoline--electric costs
eafpres   6/12/2013 12:03:44 PM
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For those wanting to do more math and factor in lowered travel costs into the total cost equation of "afforability", the DoE has provided a great tool to compare what the equivalent cost of traveling using one gallon of gasoline vs. traveling the same distance in an EV:

DoE eGallon

PeterC1
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Silver
Re: Market forces
PeterC1   6/12/2013 12:01:34 PM
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Dear Dennis,

all good points. Next time you consider a new car, a Nissan Leaf (100% electric) as a base model can be had under $20k today.

I drove a 2011 Leaf and now a 2013 model and I can tell you the future is here. I go up to 100 miles at freeway speeds with it; it became my main mode of transportation. Rarely I need to go on longer trips and for that I have my other car. Charging is no issue, my company lets me use a plain 110V outlet, sufficient to charge all day. At home I use a a dryer outlet with a modified standard charging cable that came with the car. 

So if anyone is serious about a 100% electric car, it can be had under $20k today. 

 

eafpres
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Gold
$30k isn't affordable
eafpres   6/12/2013 11:58:50 AM
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Let me restate Dennis' point much more simply:

There are a wide variety of choices of small cars priced under $20k.  That matches up better with lower incomes, who need to reduce their commuting costs etc.  $30k puts the car out of reach of as much as half the customer base.  The price tag (in 2013 dollars) needs to be $20k or less for real adoption.

Blaine Bateman

EAF LLC

GTOlover
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Market forces
GTOlover   6/12/2013 11:49:40 AM
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Great point Dennis!

http://money.cnn.com/2013/06/12/autos/tesla-elon-musk.fortune/

Some more questions for Elon Musk! I would add, why 2016? Is there something important about this year? Presidential election perhaps?

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