Automotive executives foresee a big future for plug-in hybrids over the next five years but are less bullish on the future of pure EVs, a new study says.
Asked to name the "electric vehicle technology that will attract the most consumer demand" in a KMPG International survey, 36 percent of auto execs chose plug-in hybrids, while only 11 percent cited battery-electric vehicles (BEVs). The results reflected a sharp change over the past year, with plug-in hybrids rising by 15 percentage points while BEVs dropped by five during that time.
"There's a consensus developing that the plug-in hybrid is probably the best long-term way to go," David Cole, chairman emeritus of the Center for Automotive Research (CAR), told Design News. "Plug-ins offer stop-start and regenerative braking. They also get their power from the grid and don't have the range issues that pure electrics have." Cole noted that CAR's studies have shown trends similar to those cited by KPMG.
KPMG's study, "Global Automotive Executive Survey 2013," showed that automotive managers are more inclined to invest in plug-in hybrid technology than in pure EV batteries. Twenty-four percent of respondents said they were considering big investments in plug-in hybrids, while just 8 percent said they see battery technology as a focus of large investment.
Cole, who is in close contact with auto industry engineers, said the study reflects what automakers have gradually come to understand -- that pure electrics are a smaller niche, while plug-in hybrids present an opportunity for a larger market share. "To people inside the industry, this has been clear for a few years," Cole told us. "We've seen annual sales between 23,000 and 24,000 for the Volt, and they're still rising. On the other side, Nissan Leaf sales are down."
Perhaps the biggest takeaway from the study, however, may be the fact that the internal combustion engine remains a strong option in the minds of auto executives. Eighty-five percent of the respondents in the KPMG survey considered downsizing of the IC engine as their best chance for fuel efficiency and emissions gains over the next decade. That's particularly so in such countries as China and Brazil, where much development money still flows toward conventional powertrain technology, the study said. It's also the case in the US, where Ford Motor Co. recently announced availability of a one-liter engine targeted at the worldwide market.
Such trends could be a sign that newer powertrain technologies are taking longer than expected to emerge, according to KPMG: "The results show an increasing realization that the electric vehicle is not quite the savior that many had hoped for."
Cole concurred that the internal combustion engine is still considered the best bet for reaching the CAFE mandate of 54.5 mpg by 2025. "We won't be writing the epitaph for the internal combustion engine for a really long time. It could be around for 50 more years."
This makes a lot of sense, as there are still limitations to pure EVs that just aren't practical for the average car driver. But hopefully as battery technology improves, the interest in EVs will be on the rise again. Plug-in hybrids are still a better and more energy efficient option than gasoline-powered cars, but they still depend on the electrical grid for their recharge, making them overall less energy efficient. Someday it would be great if pure EVs had the same or even greater range and feature sets as hybrids.
The advantages of start-stop operation and regenerative braking are big pluses, as well as avoiding the range issues. And if volume of the plug-in hybrids start to spike, you can see where it would gain significant momentum. Excellent post, Chuck.
I briefly mentioned this on other related posts concerning hybrids and MPG. But driving habits of the average commuter is far from optimum for MPG. In fact, I see most all hybrids blow past me on the freeway doing 75+ MPH. I ask you, how are they optimizing the technology when they have the accelerator pushed to the floor?
Even more amazing to me is the guy that insists on being first and I always seem to catch up to him driving a modest 60 MPH in my 45 year old car! He may get better MPG than I in regards to technology, but not by much. If the ICE is going to be around another 50 years and the MPG requirement conitues to rise, automakers have to take the driving away from the driver. I object to this vehmently, but I cannot see any way around the driving habits. I think people go and buy a hybrid, expecting 50 MPG, get disgusted that they are lucky to top 30 MPG, and then blame the automaker. No one takes responsibility for their own actions and only the force of government (in the form of CAFE) makes our cars small, wimpish, and plastic! We all be driving a Renault Robin (check out the top gear video, hilarious).
All cars get worse gas mileage when you drive in a less-than-economic fashion. To dispel the myth about hybrids, I took a 2000 mile trip in my Prius, Drove, well... let's say in excess of the speed limit (70) most of the way, and recorded 47 mpg average on the trip. My wife doesn't even know what it means to drive economically, and she still gets well over 40mpg when she drives the Prius around town. It is sure easy for people to guess what it's like to own a hybrid, to guess how much/little power, guess how much gas mileage they could get under those hypothetical conditions, but as a scientist, I like to rely on facts instead of what I 'want' to believe. Don't worry, the ICE will be around in 50 years... in MUSEUMS.
Battery energy, recharge and cost will definitely improve, Liz, but we're going to have to wait a while before we get to the point when pure EV range matches hybrid range. It looks like lithium-ion batteries won't get us there. Take a look at this blog post from Donald Sadoway, MIT battery expert, to learn what battery scientists are thinking.
I agree that downsizing and increasing efficiency will extend the life of the internal combustion engine, combined with hybrid technology to reach mandated mpg in the future. What I'm waiting to see is an IC engine that uses compressed natural gas or compressed air to eliminate petroleum fuels.
I'd be ecstatic for a renewable energy source that would eliminate my need to stop at a "station" every 300 miles or less.
There are plenty of fossil fuel alternatives that COULD be more efficient than standard gasoline although they all have some downside that makes them too costly to manufacture for the masses. (ie. Natural gas, propane, hydrogen)
And renewable resources are still a way's off (Biodiesel, Ethanol, solar, compressed air, hydrowater power, electricity, etc...), both from a cost AND efficiency stand-point.
Somehow, eventually, before I die of old age, I would welcome an alternative (or combination of alternatives) to the ICE. Just think: How many other technologies do we have that have gone virtually unchanged for over 100 years? (yeah, I know... quite a few)
And, yes Mr. Murray, Donald Sadoway hit the nail on the head.
For industrial control applications, or even a simple assembly line, that machine can go almost 24/7 without a break. But what happens when the task is a little more complex? That’s where the “smart” machine would come in. The smart machine is one that has some simple (or complex in some cases) processing capability to be able to adapt to changing conditions. Such machines are suited for a host of applications, including automotive, aerospace, defense, medical, computers and electronics, telecommunications, consumer goods, and so on. This discussion will examine what’s possible with smart machines, and what tradeoffs need to be made to implement such a solution.