The White House's goal of a 54.5 mile-per-gallon average fuel economy could inspire innovation, but it could also lead to safety and costs trade-offs, one industry expert warned last week. "Putting the 54.5-mpg target out there is good," said Sandy Munro, CEO of Munro & Associates Inc., a consultant doing cost studies on the subject for the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). "Engineers always need a challenge. But the question is, what are you willing to give up to get there?"
In an interview with Design News, Munro cited a multitude of ways to boost America's corporate average fuel economy (CAFÉ). Big ticket items include hybrid vehicles and pure electric cars, but Munro told us lawmakers and auto manufacturers are talking about many other possibilities, too. Those include lightweight materials, such as carbon fibers, magnesium, and titanium. Also under consideration are engine enhancements, such as variable valve timing, reduced displacement, and turbochargers. Transmissions will continue to increase the number of gears -- with automakers offering eight- , nine-, and 10-speed models -- and some transmissions may start using different case materials in order to reduce weight.
Munro also cited vehicle interiors as a place for innovation and weight reduction. He said the amount of wires and wiring harnesses need to be reduced. Heavy components, such as seats and instrument panels, must also be substantially redesigned to employ lighter materials. "People are always looking at the powertrain and body," he said. "But we've got to look at the whole picture, and that includes the interior."
The simplest way to reach 54.5 mpg, however, might just be size reduction. Smaller, lighter vehicles offer a fuel efficiency boost that is roughly proportional to the reduction in mass. "A mid-size car won't have the same volume that it has today," Munro said. "You'll get your groceries in there, and you might get your golf clubs in there, but it's not going to have the same amount of volume it has today."
Innovative new materials will also raise costs. Munro said that aluminum and steel skins for today's conventional vehicles cost about $0.30 and $0.55 per pound, respectively. In contrast, magnesium runs $2.20, titanium is about $35, and a carbon fiber skin is roughly $40 to $50 per pound. While titanium and carbon fibers offer the opportunity of using less material by weight because of their lower density, the cost differences would still be significant, Munro said. "Hitting 54.5 miles per gallon is possible, but it comes at a price," Munro said. "It goes back to whether the general buying public is willing to put up the cash."
A 2011 study by The Center for Automotive Research indicated that proposed regulations could drive up the cost of new vehicles by as much as $11,000.
You nailed it here Flinn. This is a perfect example of government regulation gone crazy.
Tis will have to result in the elimination of larger vehicles, which may be far more efficient in that they can transport more. A family of six will have to drive in two cars instead of one, not to mention business vans and the like. This legislation is totally insane.
Everytime new mpg standards come up, the manufacturers all complain that they can't possibly meet those standards, then we start getting cars which beat that standard.
In 1986, I had a Mustang GT which got 25-26mpg on the highway, unheard of for a performance car. Now performance cars are beating that mileage.
In a few years, when cars are getting 50+ mpg, new standards will come out mandating 75mpg and the complaining will begin again.
How about smaller cars, smaller engines ? European car manufacturers are already there - just look at the websites of Peugeot, Renault, Seat, Skoda, read the specs. 0-60 in 5 seconds isn't a "must-have" - it can happen in 12 seconds too. Nobody really needs 200 HP or cubic miles of space in the rear just to commute to work or visit Grandma. Know what a clutch is? manual transmission? How about diesel engines? Diesel powered private cars in Europe get better than 55mpg today. It's no good driving around in SUV's and Lexuses complaining about the fuel efficiency.
Given how many big trucks and souped up sedans drive on streets I don't see that consumers are willing to buy more fuel efficient vehicles. For that to change a gallon of gas needs to cost 6$ or 7$, which would be more in line with the overall damage gasoline fueled vehicles generate. Of course, the higher price could be achieved through higher taxes, which would never happen anyway, but I'd be in favor of it if the higher tax if that tax is exclusively used for creating and maintaining more energy saving alternative transportation. We got plenty of old railroad paths that can be used for bus lanes, bike paths, or light rail.
The policy needs to change, because the average mpg is counted across the entire fleet of a manufacturer. So they can build an excessively expensive electric plastic car that gets 80 mpg while still building the gas guzzling SUVs with 300 HP of which they want to sell thousands.
The policy needs to change and set a consumption maximum for any model. On top of that, any regular car with more than 150 HP should not even be allowed to get registered. So yes, bye bye Mercedes 500 and sports cars.
Also, add incentives that reward short commutes and punish long commutes. People that drive 80 miles to work each day should move closer to work.
I remember as well, Ann. Another reason car buyers liked the Japanese models was quality. Detroit was at its low in quality during the 1970s, which was hugely frustrating to car owners.
I agree there is no lack of innovation, Nadine. There is a bounty of innovation around hybrids and EVs that will serve traditional cars well as the auto makers work to beef up MPG. We're already seeing a rush to innovate with lighter and stronger materials. In response to composites, the steel industry is making lighter, stronger steel.
Nadine's comment reminds me of the 70s, when smaller Japanese cars were first becoming available in the US, partly in response to the sky-high cost of gas during the "energy crisis." Driving one of them made me realize how big all the standard US cars were then--as well as commercial trucks--and I was concerned about what would happen in a crash. And that's when they were still mostly steel.
That makes perfect sense to me, Chuck. It will be interesting to see what happens to car prices as we get closer to the higher MPG standards. One thing that might happen is that hybrids and EVs will be less of a premium compared with traditional vehicles.
Tesla Motors plans to roll out a “compelling, affordable electric car” that will sell for about half the price of its high-profile Model S by the end of 2016, company chairman Elon Musk said last week.
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