The White House's goal of a 54.5 mile-per-gallon average fuel economy could inspire innovation, but it could also lead to safety and costs trade-offs, one industry expert warned last week. "Putting the 54.5-mpg target out there is good," said Sandy Munro, CEO of Munro & Associates Inc., a consultant doing cost studies on the subject for the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). "Engineers always need a challenge. But the question is, what are you willing to give up to get there?"
In an interview with Design News, Munro cited a multitude of ways to boost America's corporate average fuel economy (CAFÉ). Big ticket items include hybrid vehicles and pure electric cars, but Munro told us lawmakers and auto manufacturers are talking about many other possibilities, too. Those include lightweight materials, such as carbon fibers, magnesium, and titanium. Also under consideration are engine enhancements, such as variable valve timing, reduced displacement, and turbochargers. Transmissions will continue to increase the number of gears -- with automakers offering eight- , nine-, and 10-speed models -- and some transmissions may start using different case materials in order to reduce weight.
Munro also cited vehicle interiors as a place for innovation and weight reduction. He said the amount of wires and wiring harnesses need to be reduced. Heavy components, such as seats and instrument panels, must also be substantially redesigned to employ lighter materials. "People are always looking at the powertrain and body," he said. "But we've got to look at the whole picture, and that includes the interior."
The simplest way to reach 54.5 mpg, however, might just be size reduction. Smaller, lighter vehicles offer a fuel efficiency boost that is roughly proportional to the reduction in mass. "A mid-size car won't have the same volume that it has today," Munro said. "You'll get your groceries in there, and you might get your golf clubs in there, but it's not going to have the same amount of volume it has today."
Innovative new materials will also raise costs. Munro said that aluminum and steel skins for today's conventional vehicles cost about $0.30 and $0.55 per pound, respectively. In contrast, magnesium runs $2.20, titanium is about $35, and a carbon fiber skin is roughly $40 to $50 per pound. While titanium and carbon fibers offer the opportunity of using less material by weight because of their lower density, the cost differences would still be significant, Munro said. "Hitting 54.5 miles per gallon is possible, but it comes at a price," Munro said. "It goes back to whether the general buying public is willing to put up the cash."
A 2011 study by The Center for Automotive Research indicated that proposed regulations could drive up the cost of new vehicles by as much as $11,000.
Rob, it's fair to say that David Cole, chairman of The Center for Automotive Research and former head of the automotive engineering program at the University of Michigan, agrees with you. Here's what he said in a 2011 article: "Once you get past 35 or 40 mpg, the savings for the consumer are very small, and the costs to acheive those savings become very high. If the costs get too high and the savings get too small, it could actually diminish sales."
The article goes on to say: "Cole argues that if prices climb too high, consumers will start to defer the purchase of new vehicles, resulting in a negative impact on the U.S. economy. He calls it the 'Cuban-ization' of the U.S. automotive market. His organization has done studies showing that it could cause the loss of 200,000 jobs because consumers would be buying used cars instead of new ones."
When greater fuel efficiency comes up, the first response from the industry is often that we'll end up with unsafe cars that cost more.
There isn't a lack of innovation that could lead up to higher fuel efficiency. There's a lack of will power to give up the status quo. I agree that it has to be consumer led. We're already moving towards smaller cars and alternative transportation in the US. I credit the rise of popularity in cycling for this. Commuting on two wheels surrounded by cars and SUVs makes you very aware of the impact of large vehicles and traffic.
Chuck, your article implies there may be some significant cost increases on the way to 54.5MPG. It will be interesting to see how this affects the consumer. The car buyer may ultimately be more concerned about the sticker price than crash considerations.
Yes, naperlou, consumers' tastes change quickly, but that's not really much different from any other industry. Nobody even has a clue what the next big thing is in half the industries out there. (Phones / Computers being the most obvious examples at the moment). It's one thing, though, for consumers to accept tradeoffs in price, safety, size, whatever. It's another thing to say that you "can't" have what you want not because your wants are substantially different from everybody elses, but because the government in mandating where engineering money is spent.
Jack, I agree with you that this should be consumer led. Let's look at the history a little. The reality is that we, in the US, have more disposable income than almost anyone. Our gasoline is also cheaper than any developed country. When I lived in Europe, about ten years ago, gas (petrol) was at, or above, the level it is now in the US in nominal dollar terms. The cars were a lot smaller and there were many more diesels.
Actually, the case of a car company, Chrysler, is instructive in this discussion. Chrysler has, at least twice, been bailed out by the government. At other times, Chrysler was the most profitable car company in the world. They tend to hit extremes. If you recall, this latest time the issue was gasoline prices. Just before the price of gasoline went way up, Chrysler had re-introduced the Hemi engine. Everyone bought one. Chrysler, by the way, has never had a really succesdful small car. They are great at designing and building the mid-range and up type of vehicle. Well, just as they got ramped up with everything hemi, the bottom fell out o that market. The problem with consumer sentiment is that it changes so fast. On the other hand, designing and building a new model of automobile takes longer.
I think it will be easy to meet the standards. The trend, as I have written on this site before, is to make engines of the same displacement more powerful. I have a car with a 3.4L engine that produces 250HP. The newer 3.5L and 3.6L engines put out 300HP to 320HP. This is completely unnecessary. The car companies could easily put out a 3L engine that puts out 250HP. That would be plenty. The only ones who will be upset will be the auto press.
I like the way you point out that auto makers are exploring multiple ways to hit the 54.5 MPG milestone. I think there is a danger to being so fixated on the alternative power train technology and the challenges around EV batteries that the focus is off the other, very tangible ways these targets can be achieved. Ann (and Chuck) have done a great job reporting on the innovations around materials that are driving innovation in this area. The point in this piece about the car's interior being a good area for innovation and improvement is a good one.
I am still a believer in the building a better mousetrap school of design. If consumers really want something they will drive innovation by purchasing the vehicles with only the highest MPG's. The less efficient ones would fall by the wayside since demand would dry up and automakers would have no payback on them. That's not to say the the goverment should not encourage future development. The issue is demanding the development when it cannot be assumed that we can get there. Most engineers have been involved during their careers in projects that sounded great the start but after hitting techincal or financial brick walls, the project was intelligently cancelled to prevent further loss. If the government does need to encourage a paricular development it could do so by offering an award (like the DARPA Challenge or the private X-Prise). The key word is "encourage" rather than "mandate".
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