In the midst of the Tesla Model S rollout at the company's California manufacturing plant recently, Tesla CEO Elon Musk made a startling prediction: "In 20 years more than half of new cars manufactured will be fully electric," he said, according to a Reuters article. "I actually feel quite safe in that bet. That's a bet I will put money on."
That's a strong statement, but Musk apparently didn't think it was strong enough, so he quickly amended it. "It's probably going to be in the 12- to 15-year time frame," he added.
For those who closely follow the electric car business, that's a stunning prognostication, to put it kindly. Today, fully electric cars are few and their sales are poor. By 2020, Lux Research Inc. projects that "less than a percent" of new vehicles will be fully electric. Pike Research is slightly more charitable, saying they believe it could hit 1 percent. "If you look 10 years past 2020, is it going to gain another 49 percent?" asks Dave Hurst, senior analyst for Pike Research. "It's unlikely."
Tesla CEO Elon Musk expects half of cars to be electric in 15 years, despite the long odds against it. (Source: http://www.revengeoftheelectriccar.com/)
So what's Musk thinking? Hard to say. A big thinker with a reputation for genius, Musk isn't afraid to take risks. His SpaceX startup has already sent a ship up to dock with the International Space Station, an achievement that initially drew laughter. His recent introduction of the Model S was another beat-the-odds story, since many expected Tesla to fail long before it reached this point. So Musk has a track record of turning his dreams into reality.
But half of all new cars within 12 to 15 years? Bear in mind, by using the term "fully electric," Musk is excluding plug-in hybrids, such as the Chevy Volt and Toyota Prius PHV. For now, that leaves the Model S, Nissan Leaf, Ford Focus Electric, Mitsubishi i-MiEV, GM Spark, and a few others. More are coming, but it would need to be a lot more to get to 50 percent in 12 to 15 years.
There are, of course, societal factors that could enter the picture. A shock to the oil market or government mandates, much stricter than those now calling for 54.5 mpg by 2025, could change the outlook. And the battery, of course, could be the biggest wild card of all. If materials scientists can find ways to dramatically boost the energy density, cut the cost, and charge batteries more quickly, they could launch a revolution in consumer demand.
@Absalom: Okay, I've presented you with facts and data. You've chosen to call me a "socialist," rather than respond to any of my points. I think we'll leave it there.
Socialists always claim need and complexity when confronted with the simplicity of profit and loss. BTW competition does not "cripple" industry. Competition rewards the most efficient and punishes the stupid.
I'm no pro on this. But the Wankel is still being developed/adapted among the home-built experimental aircraft people.
The concept of a rotary engine is nobel, but after a few bad experiences, the money dried up. (Incidentally, that is probably what will happen with the current battery development.)
Now like I said before, I personally have a poof of concept, CAD models, demo movies, etc. of a true rotary engine concept that has nothing in it that hasn't already worked well, but I can't find any money out there. Everyone seems to be gunshy after the Wankel, etal.
So, ChasChas, was the problem the concept of the rotary engine, or, was the problem the execution? Was this idea completely dropped, or is it still out there in some development form?
When I say basic transportation, I mean the entire vehicle will need to cost less than $10,000. So there will not be any $20,000 battery packs. I'm talking about vehicles with a total weight of about 1,000 pounds (about the same weight as a model T Ford). Think about something the size a golf cart. It would be a "city car" for the masses that live in the cities of the developing world. One step up from a scooter.
I think that cities in places like China and India may grow concerned enough about air quality to ban many ICE powered vehicles from city centers.
This excess capacity may be there, but I don't believe it is in that amount and it is but one issue. Just a quick guess but 90% of daily use autos are parked in places where the owner is not going to be able to safely plug it in during those times.
Apartment dwellers, people who park on the street... even in a drive way... that 'grid' is not there.
I wonder about all the angst about the grid being able to support electric vehicles. There is LOTS of spare capacity available. It is mostly available off-peak. Ever wonder why so many large office buildings have their lights on at night? And how do you take a 1,000MW power plant off-line for service and repairs. If you just look at what has happened with gas fired power plants in the last, very few, years, you will see that the system is much more flexible than some are led to believe. If there is demand, the plants will be there. With smart grid technology and new storage technologies, these problems can be easily solved. Yes it takes money, but that money is available where there is proven demand. Sales of electric vehicles are a very concrete proof point of that demand.
So let me get this straight... a guy who makes 'zero fat' cup cakes is predicting that in 15 years half of all cup cakes eaten will be 'zero fat'. Gee I' gonna run out and buy some stock in a company that makes 'zero fat cuppy cakes'...
Not to be cynical, but just to start with the grid will not support it. The only way I see this prediction coming true is if overall car sales fall through the floor, and governments impose strict dictatorial mandates on what is left of the industry.
All politics aside, Elon Musk's job is to create demand and pervceived future value for his companies and their shareholders. No amount of "in-depth" analysis that I can think of will make his statement come true.
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