If you want to start a debate about electric cars, the easiest way to do it is to mention costs. The price of electric cars leaves many consumers scratching their heads and wondering why automakers can't produce an EV that sells for a more reasonable price. But if you're going to launch that discussion, then brace yourself. The subject of conspiracy isn't far behind.
Electric car conspiracy theories come in a variety of flavors, ranging from the simple (carmakers price their EVs to fail) to the elegant (involving the crushing of GM's EV1) to the far-fetched (involving the suppression of secret battery chemistries).
The first flavor of theory came up recently on this site, when we mentioned that Toyota is selling its RAV4 EV for $49,800. Commenters wondered how the price could be so high. "Toyota's created a self-fulfilling prophecy, that these are going to sit on the lot," one reader wrote quite logically. That comment closely paralleled one from another reader (about a different article), who took it a step further by arguing that today's EVs are "designed to fail by being overweight, overpriced, [and] overteched."
The crushing of GM's EV1 remains the most prominent of the EV conspiracy theories.
The debate over the RAV4 EV's price won't ever reach the fever pitch that has long surrounded the crushing of GM's EV1 (which must still be the most monumental public relations gaffe in auto industry history). When we wrote about the EV1 last October, one reader caught the spirit of the moment by saying, "GM tracked down and destroyed all but a few of the EV-1's and the few that remained were disabled so they couldn't run."
Such debates are likely to continue for a long time. Many of the EV cognoscenti still believe that the auto industry is in cahoots with "big oil," and that the partnership is preventing the best battery technology from reaching the streets. The movie Who Killed the Electric Car? was partially built on that premise. It mentioned that the progress of EV batteries was interrupted when Texaco bought a stake in GM Ovonics, which made the nickel metal-hydride batteries for the EV1. If you check out any of a number of Websites, you can read the entire blow-by-blow of the alleged GM-oil industry conspiracy.
I have to admit that I draw the line at that one. Yes, I know that automotive marketing ain't beanbag (apologies for changing an old political phrase). I also know that high-level executives have been known to break laws to get their way. But after years of talking to battery experts at universities around the country, I can't believe there's a cleverly suppressed, world-beating battery technology languishing in a lab somewhere. If someone could build a battery with an energy density even one-tenth that of gasoline, scores of university PhDs would know about it. No conspiracy is that big.
Toyota may not know it, but by pricing the RAV4 EV at $49,800, it's unintentionally keeping the conspiracy talk alive. Even the EV loyalists, who praised Toyota for its persistence with the original RAV4 EV a decade ago, are starting to wonder. In an article on the new car, Forbes.com called the vehicle "stratospherically priced," and a Wall Street Journal reviewer wrote, "Sure, lithium ion batteries are expensive, but prices are falling and, well, I just don't see where the expense lies."
It won't take much more than that to get the conspiracy buzz going again.
Related posts:
For a close-up look at GM's Chevy Volt, go to the Drive for Innovation site and follow the cross-country journey of EE Life editorial director Brian Fuller.
The bummer about the `conspiracy" chatter is that it takes away from some of the real progress and milestones that have made with EV technology. Sure, it's entertaining and a great way to get out frustrations at an industry that can't seem to solve what on the surface appears to be a pretty solvable problem. I agree with your statement, Chuck, that with all of the attention and focus on trying to crack the EV battery nut, some researcher, some where would have broken the code and `fessed up if there really was some magic bullet locked up somewhere.
Beth, it is distracting, isn't it. While the technology advances, it has been a slow advance. You have to wonder. Where are the hybrid battery/ultracapicator systems. The research done to date has been very uninspiring, in spite of all the hype. Energy storage is the most pressing national engineering/scientific problem we have today. Without it, wind and solar and host of other technologies remain too costly to survive without government subsidies. I don't think this is a conspiracy, but I do have to wonder about the way government prioroties are set.
The high price of electric, and hybrid, cars reflects the sales expectations as well as the cost of the components. Any complex product, like an automobile, has lots of fixed costs. A typical auto plant costs $1B or more to set up. That cost is amortized over the number of vehichles the manufacturer expects to sell and is used to set the price. The low utility of EVs limits their market. Thus, the cost is going to be high.
I remember the story of how Chrysler asked drivers what they wanted = small fuel efficient cars. What drivers bought were muscle cars = Mustangs, Camaro's etc. So Chrysler had to come out with the Charger and Challenger.
I think the Toyota Prius is now in its third generation in the U.S. When I first seriously considered the Prius, they all had high-end stereo's, Nav systems etc. And high prices to match. When models became available without all the 'bells and whistles', my wife bought one. My Aspen hybrid has all the 'bells and whistles'. The reviews that I have read postulate that Chrysler made a concious decision to build a high-end vehicle to cushion the hybid price shock.
If Toyota is targeting consumers that want a high-end, fully equipped vehicle, then that is their marketing strategy. And the standard logic is there is a lot of profit in high-end options. After Toyota sees what their market penetration is with these 'pricey' Rav-4's, they may bring out a less expensive version.
The simplest explanation is always the right one. Conspiraciy theories are just too complicated NASA didn't land spacecraft on the moon, there are aliens living in area 51, WTC fell down all by itself etc... and the only people who really know the truth are - lets just say you wouldn't invite them to dinner. Seriously, though, if I increase the energy density of a battery X2 or X4 then first of all I'd apply the technology to smaller products, like smartphones or flashlights, first, and more important for EV's, I'd have to increase the energy supply to the charger, (else charge time would be 24 hours or range would remain limited but with smaller batteries), and I'd soon reach the level marked "impractical".
Although I wasn't alive yet, I understand that when color televisions first came out, they were quite expensive -- well beyond the reach of the average family. Now, most people under 40 have never even seen a black and white tv. (My family had a black and white tv until the 1984 Olympics, but by that point, we were probably the last family in Chicago without a color tv). In fact, many new technologies debut as luxury goods before they make it into the mass market. Unless there was a conspiracy to suppress color tv, I strongly doubt that there is a conspiracy to suppress electric cars.
No, I don't believe there are black helicopters chasing us on this one, but the auto industry does carry some baggage on the issue. Don't forget that they did buy up the light rail lines in a few cities and make them obsolete so we'd all be forced to use their product.
I love a good conspiracy theory. They're better than anything on tv but Beth is right. It's a distraction.
As naperlou said, there is a lot of investment in the beginning for new cars. I think most manufacturers are trying to get a rapid return on investment. EVs may have to exist and evolve at a loss for years before things take off-kinda like hybrid cars.
I agree, the auto industry does have some baggage. They've fought CAFE tooth-and-nail since its inception, so I understand those who don't trust them. But here, a conspiracy isn't necessary. The battery just isn't ready yet. When it does arrive, the national labs and universities will know about it, and no conspiracy will stop it.
the economic origin of any consumer goods begans with a proper economic justification, because of the great costs of making the first car. Plugincars.com exposes the reality of americas lack of interest in going into the very expensive battery business, the calculation isn't too coplicated, you spend a little in energy for a hugh amount of money up front, and when you put in the miles and cost of gas, as opposed to the end value of yer car and the new cost of a battery which will be worth far more than the car, many people can see through the elon musk, barry soretoe claims to fame---its not happening---The criminal IPO's on the NYSE, are not new first the EV's, then FarceBuck, all for the unwary investor.
electric power is economocally justified in many items its all according to scale, or ebergy required. the laptop batteries heat up expand the teslas creep along too slow for the free way, or blvds, perhaps sometime in the future we will discover the right benerator frequency, amplitudes, energy source, it may not be a battery at all, but the evs are simply not passing the economical justification test to justify their continuation short of continued fraud
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