A new study by R.L. Polk & Co. shows that the overall percentage of hybrids sold into the new vehicle market has fallen from 2.9 percent to 2.4 percent over the past three years. Moreover, approximately two-thirds of hybrid owners who returned to the market in 2011 did not buy another hybrid.
"Intuitively, you would expect the numbers to be higher, given how many hybrid vehicles are available in the market place today," Brad Smith, director of Polk's loyalty management practice, told us.
Polk's study revealed that only 35 percent of hybrid owners chose to purchase a hybrid again when returning to the market in 2011. The repurchase rate was even lower -- under 25 percent -- when owners of the Toyota Prius were excluded from the statistics.
Toyota Prius' customer loyalty had a significant effect in Polk's study. When repurchase behavior of Prius customers was not factored in, overall hybrid loyalty dropped to less than 25 percent. (Source: Toyota)
Industry experts familiar with the study don't believe that the low percentage of return buyers is a reflection of dissatisfaction with hybrids. Most hybrids, such as the Toyota Prius and Honda Insight, have performed well in reliability studies and have offered fuel efficiencies as advertised.
But hybrids now face competition from conventional gasoline-burning and diesel-burning vehicles that are boosting their fuel efficiencies. As a result, prospective buyers whose main concern is vehicle operating costs may be less inclined to choose a hybrid.
"People who buy hybrids because they are eco-friendly are more likely to stick with it and buy another hybrid," said Lacey Plache, chief economist for Edmunds.com. "But hybrids are facing really strong competition in terms of attracting consumers who are just looking at the bottom line."
Incorrect. The global temperature only appears to be flattening due to the huge spike we had in 1998. The reality is that in the last 5 years the Arctic ice cap has started totally disappearing, with an open summer Northwest Passage for the first time in tens of thousands of years.
Anyone who does not think global warming is still not a serious problem, must not live near the coasts or tornado zones.
And the main point of going green has nothing to do with global warming, but with the realistic concern that future shortages in this finite resource will cause global starvation. How many deaths do you want on your hands?
At anything over $50 for a Prius bulb, and you got robbed.
They are only $42 at Amazon, and I am sure I have seen them for less than half that. They are standard HID gas bulbs that should last almost indefinitely, and are common these days.
Hybrids have never made sense as a goal for cars, since they have the worst of both worlds, trying to carry and maintain 2 complete propulsion systems instead of just one.
They only make senes as a transitional step for cars, before all electric models will have sufficient range.
But the resale problem could easily be taken care of. It is the high cost and risk factor from the battery packs. And the solution is to not make buyers own the batteries, but for the company to spread out the risk, by leasing the batteries and making them easily exchanged on a regular basis.
As more recharing stations become available, hybrids will become more and more attractive, and their electrical capacity and range will increase, allowing the gasoline components to shrink. (although I never understood why hybrids use gasoline instead of diesel?)
But obviously hybrids are successful and necessary for larger applications. Trains have been hybrids successfully for over half a century. In WWII there was even a successful 75 ton hybrid tank designed by Porsche, the Ferdinand.
I agree with this assessment. I believe that consumers are far more savvy on average about "Green" than they used to be. Part of the original impetus for developing hybrids and EVs was that carbon emissions were causing harm to the environment. Now this proposition is recognized by most rational people as lacking in evidence (the global temperature has been flat for the last 15 years even as atmospheric CO2 has risen). Also, the amount of warming predicted is insignificant compared to daily and seasonal temperature swings in most places. Those who continue to insist on the truth of global warming are seen to be pushing a political rather than scientific agenda. Nonetheless, some people will buy anything claimed to be "green." However, many potential buyers, and especially those who have already owned one, now realize that the total lifetime cost of hybrids and EVs is way higher than the benefit obtained, and that the environmental issues are not nearly as urgent as they seemed 10 or 15 years ago.
A person I know said that after a $500-$800 (depending on where he went) headlight replacement has second thoughts. And that was just the bulb. A ballast can be more.
Good points, Kevin. I think one of the hidden stories of the last few years is the advance in efficiency with conventional automotive engines, All of the attention has been on the hybrids and EVs. Meanwhile, conventional engines are taking big steps forward in efficiency. So you can choose to cut your carbon output without having to turn to a hybrid or EV.
I have been looking at hybirds since the first Honda Insight showed up in KC in 2002. I did what most engineers do - what is the cost benefit - and found then it was way out of line. I bought a Toyota Echo instead. A third of the cost and ten years later with 250K miles, I have done nothing to the drive train or suspension. It is worth $3K on a trade in from a local dealer. What would the Insight have done? Not even close based on history of the car. I have even looked at a used Prius but the risk is too high without a new battery or a a warranty that costs a small fortune compared to "normal" vehicles. Bottom line for America is "You want me to pay $10K more on a much smaller vehicle that is worth <$3K at trade in and the battery may need replacing at 110K plus miles for $10K?" A Yaris is looking pretty good right now if I want high mileage.
Another reason why people are not repeating the purchase of a hybrid involves resale value. Have you checked what a used hybrid gets these days? Practically nothing compared to a conventional vehicle. That also hurts owners trading in their first hybrid on a new one. Most hybrids being produced now are significantly better than ones from just a few years ago, and that kills the resale market. When you also factor in a possible battery replacement cost, the value of a used hybrid goes way down. So I suspect that people looking to replace their hybrid are shocked at the low trade-in value and don't want to get stuck again.
I think the "average" car buyer is mainly focused on economics. The new efficient (conventional) cars now have created a viable "almost as good for much less purchase price" choice for buyers.
The cost savings vs. higher MPG is a diminishing-returns game: assuming $4/gal & 15K mi/yr, someone saves about $1500/yr by buying a new 40MPG car vs. the old 20 MPG one. However, buying a 50 MPG Prius saves only an additional $300/yr. If the hybrid costs $6K more, the break-even payback time is 20 years!
That being said, I think the new Prius C could be interesting. It still has stellar efficiency (~50MPG) yet costs only a small increment over conventional cars of similar size.
One other observation (the article does not give enough detail to know if this is a factor) - there are many hybrid cars (other than the Prius) that are pretty lame...and definitely not worth it. Hybrid SUV's, the "mild" hybrids from GM, the Honda CRZ, even the Prius V (only 40MPG) have a difficult value proposition for the incremental hybrid costs.
To date, the only hybrid that really set the efficiency bar high enough is the Prius...but that is changing - there are new cars coming from various sources that will get ~50+ MPG. Ford's upcoming Fusion Hybrid is a fairly large car and will get ~47MPG!
Those that are ttruely interested in buying 'green' have begun looking at the cradle to grave 'green' and not just operation. I recall that Toyota acknowledged that their 'greenest' cradle to grave vehicle was not a hybrid.
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