A new Obama administration report predicts a sharp decline in the cost of hybrid-electric vehicle batteries over the next three years, but industry analysts are calling that forecast optimistic.
In 2008, a typical battery for a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle with a 40-mile electric range cost $12,000 (assumes 10kWh batteries). But in part because of the investments made by the Administration, the United States is on track to demonstrate technology by 2015 that would reduce the cost to $3,600.
Such a drop could be a big step forward for the electric car market. A Chevy Volt battery would cost about $5,760, significantly less than it is believed to cost today. Similarly, a Tesla Roadster battery -- which, according to recent news reports, is being offered to customers at a replacement price of about $40,000 -- would drop to $14,400.
The government report cites investment in advanced battery research as the reason for the projected price drop. "In 2009, the US had only two factories manufacturing advanced vehicle batteries," it states. "Since then, we have supported 30 new advanced battery and electric vehicle component plants that are opening across the country."
But industry analysts questioned whether the going rate of $800-$1,000/kWh could drop that far in such a short time.
"It's very optimistic," Hrishikesh Sathawane, electric vehicle and energy storage analyst for Lux Research, told us. "A lot of cost reduction will come from economies of scale. But for economies of scale to happen, there has to be huge customer demand. And we don't see that happening."
Bunter, you're right on the mark. In politics and journalism, people talk about the "Moore's Law for batteries," which DOES NOT exist. Moore's Law describes a manufacturing situation -- the ability to make smaller and smaller feature sizes on a semiconductor chip. Batteries, in contrast, are subject to the laws of material science. True, manufacturing will bring the costs down to some degree, but not in a Moore's Law fashion. And manufacturing will do little or nothing for energy density. To get a sense of the history, take a look at this:
I agree on all counts, Dennis. The breakthrough will come eventually, but there's no guaratee that throwing money at it today will bring about a breakthrough tomorrow. It requires discovery, which can't be planned. Regarding the long history of battery development, see the link to the article below.
I am concerned about the trend I see (largely in the media and political world) to compare battery technology development with emerging "high tech" items.
Batteries have seen a great deal of intense development for what, 200 years? This is a very mature industry. Could we get a breakthrough tomorrow? Sure. Should we continue to seek one? Abosolutely. Should we base our forward looking game plan on the assumption that this will happen? Count me as a bit reluctant.
Just currious if any of the commentors currently own a production EV or have a friend with one ?
My wife and I own two ICE vehicles (can't yet bare to part with my beloved 1997 XJR) and a wonderful Nissan LEAF all-electric. It is fun to drive, with a surprisingly enjoyable acceleration curve; constant from any starting rpm and costs us $2.10 in electricity per 100 miles here in the NW. Since late May 2011 we have logged 7700 miles in the LEAF and 3 tankfuls of gasoline in the Volve S80 (3/4 tank in the XJR).
It is already eminently practical for us right now and cost less than the Volvo S80 which we purchased new several years ago. Nissan is rumored to have the lowest EV battery cost per KwH in the industry, perhaps 1/2 their closest compeditor and the warranty for 80% charge retention is 8 years or 100k miles. Agreed it is still a bit pricey and not for everyone, especially single car households, but gosh do yourself a favor and test drive one before any detailed critic of EV viability.
I should add that while I believe that delivery trucks will be the primary market, I'm not as optimistic about 2X range and 50% cost. The ace-in-the-hole, though, is the Envia battery, which is under development in conjunction with General Motors. If the Envia battery is successful, then your numbers will be right on target.
Bob, even the skeptics wouldn't argue with you about delivery trucks. Most experts I've spoken with have said that delivery vehicles will be the primary market for pure EVs.
Personally, I have a hard time believing any forecasts from the government (either those currenlty in who want to keep their jobs, or those currenlty out that would like to get those jobs) during an election year. The timing and massaging of various reports and data can be suspect.
"The government report cites investment in advanced battery research as the reason for the projected price drop"
Unless and until without some technology development happens, how can we say that packing cost can come down? Investments, doesn't mean that cost factor can bring down. For that, low cost technologies have to develop and government also has to contribute by keeping the tax level at minimal.
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