HOME  |  NEWS  |  BLOGS  |  MESSAGES  |  FEATURES  |  VIDEOS  |  WEBINARS  |  INDUSTRIES  |  FOCUS ON FUNDAMENTALS
  |  REGISTER  |  LOGIN  |  HELP
Blogs
Captain Hybrid

EV Battery Report Says Costs Going Down

NO RATINGS
Page 1 / 2 Next >
View Comments: Threaded|Newest First|Oldest First
Beth Stackpole
User Rank
Blogger
Political hot button
Beth Stackpole   4/3/2012 8:17:16 AM
NO RATINGS
There's no doubt that there should be significant progress made in reducing the costs of EV batteries, particularly considering how much time, resources, and funding (government and private sector) is going into fueling new development in this area. However, given that it's an election year, I'm betting that this report probably leans towards a more bullish forecast as the current administration wants to paint its efforts in a favorable light. Hopefully, people can see past the politics and focus in on the important takeaway that there will be light at the end of the tunnel and with enough grit and engineering ingenuity, EV battery costs will come down over time, just like the cost of any new innovation. It's all part of the process.

naperlou
User Rank
Blogger
Re: Political hot button
naperlou   4/3/2012 9:12:40 AM
NO RATINGS
Beth, you hit it right on the head.  These devices are following the normal technology demand curve.  A good example is flat screen TVs.  It was both demand and innovation that  contributed to the rapid decline in prices and increasae in capability.  I see both for EV batteries.  The current technology, as is, will not be what we have when the price comes down.  As for predicting the timing, lot's of luck.

TJ McDermott
User Rank
Blogger
Re: Political hot button
TJ McDermott   4/3/2012 10:23:11 AM
NO RATINGS
Beth, you're right; I'd prefer to see such a report from the CBO instead of the President's administration.  Such a report will never escape the bias from its source.  Better yet, have an organization the likes of Consumer Reports generate the report.

Beth Stackpole
User Rank
Blogger
Re: Political hot button
Beth Stackpole   4/3/2012 1:13:51 PM
NO RATINGS
@TJ. Now that's a sweet idea and one that should be doable. I'm wondering if any one out there knows of some sort of similar report?

Rob Spiegel
User Rank
Blogger
Re: Political hot button
Rob Spiegel   4/3/2012 4:14:10 PM
NO RATINGS
I wonder how production in China will affect battery prices in coming years. China has certainly worked to bring down the coast of solar panels in recent years. I understand they are also targeting EV batteries as a market they want to grab.

Bob Wallace
User Rank
Iron
Re: Political hot button
Bob Wallace   4/3/2012 4:31:10 PM
NO RATINGS
Fred Smith, CEO of FedEX said this about where he sees the local delivery industry going...

"I think in three or four years you will have a battery vehicle with a range that's probably double what it has today — a couple of hundred miles versus a hundred miles — and it'll probably be 25 percent to 40 percent cheaper than [it] currently is."

 

"An all-electric pickup and delivery van will operate at a 75 percent less per-mile cost than an internal combustion engine variant," he says. "Now, I didn't say 7 1/2 percent — [I said] 75 percent. These are big numbers.

 

Smith says he believes that six years from now, electric vehicles will be in wide commercial use, transporting everything from FedEx packages to plumbers and pizza.

 

http://www.npr.org/2012/04/02/149703488/oil-scare-turns-fedex-onto-energy-efficiency

 

As for where battery prices are now, let me offer this...

Better Place, the company currently building car-charging and battery-swapping networks in Israel and Denmark, is purchasing batteries for cars at $400 per kilowatt hour for delivery in early 2012, according to company executives.

 

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/ev-batteries-dropping-rapidly-in-price/

 

 

Charles Murray
User Rank
Blogger
Re: Political hot button
Charles Murray   4/10/2012 8:30:49 PM
NO RATINGS
Bob, even the skeptics wouldn't argue with you about delivery trucks. Most experts I've spoken with have said that delivery vehicles will be the primary market for pure EVs.

Bob Wallace
User Rank
Iron
Re: Political hot button
Bob Wallace   4/10/2012 8:46:59 PM
NO RATINGS
Well Charles, if delivery trucks get batteries that give  2x the range at 50% to 75% of current cost then EVs and PHEVs will as well.

A 200 mile, affordable EV wil be, IMHO, the end of the gasmobile.

The next few years are going to be most interesting....

 

Charles Murray
User Rank
Blogger
Re: Political hot button
Charles Murray   4/11/2012 8:39:58 PM
NO RATINGS
I should add that while I believe that delivery trucks will be the primary market, I'm not as optimistic about 2X range and 50% cost. The ace-in-the-hole, though, is the Envia battery, which is under development in conjunction with General Motors. If the Envia battery is successful, then your numbers will be right on target.

Mark-In-Seattle
User Rank
Iron
Nissan LEAF owner
Mark-In-Seattle   4/13/2012 10:33:09 PM
NO RATINGS
Just currious if any of the commentors currently own a production EV or have a friend with one ?

 

My wife and I own two ICE vehicles (can't yet bare to part with my beloved 1997 XJR) and a wonderful Nissan LEAF all-electric.   It is fun to drive, with a surprisingly enjoyable acceleration curve; constant from any starting rpm and costs us $2.10 in electricity per 100 miles here in the NW.   Since late May 2011 we have logged 7700 miles in the LEAF and 3 tankfuls of gasoline in the Volve S80 (3/4 tank in the XJR).

 

It is already eminently practical for us right now and cost less than the Volvo S80 which we purchased new several years ago.  Nissan is rumored to have the lowest EV battery cost per KwH in the industry, perhaps 1/2 their closest compeditor and the warranty for 80% charge retention is 8 years or 100k miles.  Agreed it is still a bit pricey and not for everyone, especially single car households, but gosh do yourself a favor and test drive one before any detailed critic of EV viability.

 

Thank you.

tekochip
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Nissan LEAF owner
tekochip   5/3/2012 7:55:23 AM
NO RATINGS
Thanks Mark, there have been plenty of comments about the customer's experience with EVs, but not from somebody that actually owns one. 

Mydesign
User Rank
Platinum
Keeping the cost at low
Mydesign   4/4/2012 6:53:12 AM
NO RATINGS
1 saves
"The government report cites investment in advanced battery research as the reason for the projected price drop"

Unless and until without some technology development happens, how can we say that packing cost can come down? Investments, doesn't mean that cost factor can bring down. For that, low cost technologies have to develop and government also has to contribute by keeping the tax level at minimal.

Jack Rupert, PE
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Keeping the cost at low
Jack Rupert, PE   4/8/2012 5:10:08 PM
NO RATINGS
Personally, I have a hard time believing any forecasts from the government (either those currenlty in who want to keep their jobs, or those currenlty out that would like to get those jobs) during an election year.  The timing and massaging of various reports and data can be suspect.

Bunter
User Rank
Platinum
Battery improvement curve.
Bunter   4/19/2012 10:33:30 AM
NO RATINGS
Just a quick thought here.

I am concerned about the trend I see (largely in the media and political world) to compare battery technology development with emerging "high tech" items.

Batteries have seen a great deal of intense development for what, 200 years?  This is a very mature industry.  Could we get a breakthrough tomorrow? Sure.  Should we continue to seek one? Abosolutely.  Should we base our forward looking game plan on the assumption that this will happen?  Count me as a bit reluctant.

Cheerio,

Dennis

Charles Murray
User Rank
Blogger
Re: Battery improvement curve.
Charles Murray   4/25/2012 6:18:06 PM
NO RATINGS
I agree on all counts, Dennis. The breakthrough will come eventually, but there's no guaratee that throwing money at it today will bring about a breakthrough tomorrow. It requires discovery, which can't be planned. Regarding the long history of battery development, see the link to the article below.

 http://www.designnews.com/author.asp?section_id=1366&doc_id=235241

Charles Murray
User Rank
Blogger
Re: Battery improvement curve.
Charles Murray   5/2/2012 9:27:17 PM
NO RATINGS
Bunter, you're right on the mark. In politics and journalism, people talk about the "Moore's Law for batteries," which DOES NOT exist. Moore's Law describes a manufacturing situation -- the ability to make smaller and smaller feature sizes on a semiconductor chip. Batteries, in contrast, are subject to the laws of material science. True, manufacturing will bring the costs down to some degree, but not in a Moore's Law fashion. And manufacturing will do little or nothing for energy density. To get a sense of the history, take a look at this:

http://www.designnews.com/author.asp?section_id=1366&doc_id=235241

Partner Zone
More Blogs from Captain Hybrid
Electric vehicle batteries are progressing rapidly, but there’s still no sign on the horizon that the technology is going to revolutionize the auto industry anytime soon, experts said at The Battery Show in Detroit last week.
An engineering team from Ohio State University has set its sights on the unimaginable -- driving 400 mph in an electric vehicle.
We’ve collected photos of electric cars, designed for both the neighborhood blacktop and the commercial dragstrip. From the Crazyhorse Pinto and the Killacycle motorcycle to the Tesla Roadster and the 500-HP Renovo Coupe, we offer a peek at the blistering performance of the electric powertrain.
Tesla Motors might be planning to boost the driving range of its two-seat Roadster to 400 miles.
A Silicon Valley company has made the biggest splash yet in the high-performance end of the electric car market, announcing an EV that zips from 0 to 60 mph in 3.4 seconds and costs $529,000.
Design News Webinar Series
9/25/2014 11:00 a.m. California / 2:00 p.m. New York
9/10/2014 11:00 a.m. California / 2:00 p.m. New York
7/23/2014 11:00 a.m. California / 2:00 p.m. New York
10/7/2014 8:00 a.m. California / 11:00 a.m. New York
Quick Poll
The Continuing Education Center offers engineers an entirely new way to get the education they need to formulate next-generation solutions.
Oct 20 - 24, How to Design & Build an Embedded Web Server: An Embedded TCP/IP Tutorial
SEMESTERS: 1  |  2  |  3  |  4  |  5  |  6


Focus on Fundamentals consists of 45-minute on-line classes that cover a host of technologies. You learn without leaving the comfort of your desk. All classes are taught by subject-matter experts and all are archived. So if you can't attend live, attend at your convenience.
Next Class: October 2
Sponsored by Altera
Learn More   |   Login   |   Archived Classes
Twitter Feed
Design News Twitter Feed
Like Us on Facebook

Sponsored Content

Technology Marketplace

Copyright © 2014 UBM Canon, A UBM company, All rights reserved. Privacy Policy | Terms of Service