Global warming is a contentious topic. Opinions on both sides can be loud and angry.
But in the past week, the loudness and anger climbed a few more notches. When a group of so-called "skeptics" expressed an opinion, a Huffington Post blog argued they were scared of science, saying, "the folks who deny scientific facts deserve to be laughed at and scorned." A New York Times blog took a more measured tone, saying that the skeptics "appear to flunk climate economics." Earth Times described their opinion as "a call to play with fire."
And who was this pack of jackals who fear science and deserve such scorn? They were members of the National Academy of Engineering and National Academy of Sciences, the American Physical Society, the World Federation of Sciences, the Royal Dutch Meteorological Service, and distinguished universities around the world.
To understand what prompted the anger, it's best to look at the opinion that started it. On Jan. 28, the group of scientists published a signed editorial, titled "No Need to Panic About Global Warming," in The Wall Street Journal. The editorial expressed a strong opinion. It asserted that CO2 isn't ruining the Earth; it even contended that CO2 is a benefit. Moreover, the editorial was steadfast in its position that many high-level scientists don't believe in global warming, and are tired of the demonization of those who speak their opinions.
"The oft-repeated claim that nearly all scientists demand that something dramatic be done to stop global warming is not true," it said. "In fact, a large and growing number of distinguished scientists and engineers do not agree that drastic actions on global warming are needed."
Right now, the Internet is buzzing with anger over the editorial. Many blogs have said that The Wall Street Journal turned down a comparable editorial written by scientists who believe in global warming. It's not known if this is true; calls to The Wall Street Journal by Design News were not returned.
But forget for a minute whether you do or don't believe in global warming. Global warming -- or "climate change," as it's now called -- is an unbelievably complex subject that's deeply understood by only a handful of people. In truth, most of us rely on conclusions from various studies, done by people we trust, to determine where we stand on the subject. But, good grief, if an opinion of distinguished scientists doesn't match our own, does it deserve scorn?
It gives me hope that some people are capable of seeing the bigger picture when it comes to GW. I agree with all your thoughs. Here is one more to add to your list. Weather or not GW is the end result, what about all the man made posions that a being dumped into our world everyday?
As the article stated, this is a very complex issue and only a handful of people understand it deeply. I am not one of them. A lot of this climate change witch hunt revolves around whether or not it's man made. As such, things like volcanic activity, the sun, and many other "natural" influences are discounted. This is why I say this is a witch hunt and not science. There is little if any evidence that the last 10 years has yeilded any global warming. Man made or otherwise. Core samples and the like can give us pretty good information to help construct a historical record of how things were. We were in an Ice age. Of course we have warming... We can make some educated analysis but that doesn't mean we know everything. The witch hunters say we have to take action now. If that's the case, we should be moving away from the shore.
10 years ago the 'scientists' warned us that the world would end in 10 years if we didn't drastically change our lifestyles. It's 10 years later and the world is still here, better than ever.
If GW was happening and the poles are melting, where's the rising oceans? There is no confirmation of water rising other than normally. It's ok to talk about the possibilty of GW but to demand usary taxes on individuals for living is beyond belief.
Considering North America was covered in glaciers 30,000 years ago points to natural warming and cooling trends. We are at the end of a natural warming trend and a cooling one is coming.
Yes, you are partly right. Clouds are an important part of the GH Effect. Schmidt et al 2011 estimated the percentage contributions to the total GH effect of various components as
H2O 50%
Clouds 25%
CO2 20%
Other gases 5%
Clouds aren't a larger component than this because the entire planet isn't covered by clouds. And only some cloud types contribute to GH warming. Other types have a cooling effect by reflecting sunlight to space.The net effect of both of these is approximately neutral, perhaps slightly net warming.
So your comment " I would think the cloud effect has much greater effect than the CO2 concentration changes we have seen" is true. However the issues is whether the cloud component grows as the GH Gas component grows to maintain the same relative proportions. We know that the H2O component has to grow since in a warmer atmosphere you can have a higher water vapour content and in fact you need a higher water vapour content to keep enough of the atmosphere near Water Vapour Saturation to allow clouds to form. This is the water vapour feedback.
The question of what feedback clouds then cause depends mainly on whether the proportions of different cloud types changes. If they current ratios remain, even with an increase in total cloud cover the effect would be small as they two cloud behaviours cancel out. All the current research suggests that cloud changes will have a small net warming effect, but not on the same scale as the water vapour increase.
I know from my Heat transfer classes that the ground can radiate heat to the sky. Effectively this is the main source of heat transfer in an environment absent conduction and convection effects so there is only radiative heat transfer. If the sky is clear, the ground is effectively radiating heat to the sky which appears to have a termperature of around 4 degrees K as I recall. this means there is a large radiative heat transfer.
If there is a could cover, the sky (cloud) is at a much warmer temperature and nearly the same as the ground so the net heat transfer is very small compared to the open sky heat transfer.
This effect is not related to the GH gas properties at all. I I had to guess, I would think the cloud effect has much greater effect than the CO2 concentration changes we have seen. The only question is how much the cloud effect provides in terms of a blanket to protect the earth's surface at night.
I think it might be possible to construct some simple models of the atmosphere and examine the effects of CO2 and cloud cover in isolation. Without trying to include so many additional variables it might be possible to estimate the effects of CO2 concentration compared to a cloud effect. If these were the only variables within the simulation it might show some useful data without having to go through the full blown or more complete modeling problems.
Although I am contributing to the number of posts here, doesn't this say is all? This is really what is is all about, to create 'debate' were the evidence doesn't credit it? This is how the Apollo moon conspiracy, and UFO theorists gain publicity for their cause, it needn't be rational only controversial. Unfortunately, unlike these cases, it is not merely an academic argument. Climate change has important practical and moral consequences for humanity. Do the fake Skeptics realise this or simply don't care?
In 2002 the leading Republican consultant Frank Luntz, conceded that the party has "lost the environmental communications battle" and urged its politicians to encourage the public in the view that there is no scientific consensus on the dangers of greenhouse gases. In a memo to President George Bush, Frank Luntz wrote: "The scientific debate is closing [against us] but not yet closed. There is still a window of opportunity to challenge the science," Mr Luntz writes in the memo, obtained by the Environmental Working Group, a Washington-based campaigning organisation.
"Voters believe that there is no consensus about global warming within the scientific community. Should the public come to believe that the scientific issues are settled, their views about global warming will change accordingly.
"Therefore, you need to continue to make the lack of scientific certainty a primary issue in the debate."
The phrase "global warming" should be abandoned in favour of "climate change", Mr Luntz says, and the party should describe its policies as "conservationist" instead of "environmentalist", because "most people" think environmentalists are "extremists" who indulge in "some pretty bizarre behaviour... that turns off many voters".
Words such as "common sense" should be used, with pro-business arguments avoided wherever possible.
non-mag. I didn't mention Glaciers. They are another possible threat but not as clearly defined. Declining water tables are a real problem.
Yes there is a lot of Natural Gas at present. But there is also a rapidly growing demand as well. Supply & Demand determines prices, not just Supply.
I didn't suggest that temperature change was the cause of the explosion in jellyfish numbers. It is most likely overfishing taking out the predator wish so their are fewer around to eat baby jellywish.
The point of my post to William is that we have multiple threats to our food supply as well as the oppurtunities. To just take a simple 'we can solve every problem because we have done so in the past' mindset is a bit PollyAnna for my taste.
Particularly when many of our 'solutions' tend to only be temporary answers. Using ground water to increase crop yields is a reasonable idea. But not a permanent solution since it runs out eventually. Good for a few decades but not forever.
The Himalayan glacial melt was only 8% of what was predicted over the last several years.
There's a large natural gas surplus right now - fertilizer should be cheap.
Temperature change was only one of many possible explanations of the increased jellyfish population in the Sea of Japan.
This is the type of information that makes me realize you can't just listen to "experts" and trust what they are telling you. You'd better listen to varying points of view and do research of your own before taking one side of this issue.
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