Global warming is a contentious topic. Opinions on both sides can be loud and angry.
But in the past week, the loudness and anger climbed a few more notches. When a group of so-called "skeptics" expressed an opinion, a Huffington Post blog argued they were scared of science, saying, "the folks who deny scientific facts deserve to be laughed at and scorned." A New York Times blog took a more measured tone, saying that the skeptics "appear to flunk climate economics." Earth Times described their opinion as "a call to play with fire."
And who was this pack of jackals who fear science and deserve such scorn? They were members of the National Academy of Engineering and National Academy of Sciences, the American Physical Society, the World Federation of Sciences, the Royal Dutch Meteorological Service, and distinguished universities around the world.
To understand what prompted the anger, it's best to look at the opinion that started it. On Jan. 28, the group of scientists published a signed editorial, titled "No Need to Panic About Global Warming," in The Wall Street Journal. The editorial expressed a strong opinion. It asserted that CO2 isn't ruining the Earth; it even contended that CO2 is a benefit. Moreover, the editorial was steadfast in its position that many high-level scientists don't believe in global warming, and are tired of the demonization of those who speak their opinions.
"The oft-repeated claim that nearly all scientists demand that something dramatic be done to stop global warming is not true," it said. "In fact, a large and growing number of distinguished scientists and engineers do not agree that drastic actions on global warming are needed."
Right now, the Internet is buzzing with anger over the editorial. Many blogs have said that The Wall Street Journal turned down a comparable editorial written by scientists who believe in global warming. It's not known if this is true; calls to The Wall Street Journal by Design News were not returned.
But forget for a minute whether you do or don't believe in global warming. Global warming -- or "climate change," as it's now called -- is an unbelievably complex subject that's deeply understood by only a handful of people. In truth, most of us rely on conclusions from various studies, done by people we trust, to determine where we stand on the subject. But, good grief, if an opinion of distinguished scientists doesn't match our own, does it deserve scorn?
Remarkable post Charles. As I am looking at the responses, i.e. comments, I see 46 screens with various viewpoints. In my opinion, this is one of the best things that could happen--we discuss the pros and cons of the argument. Personally, I feel the documentation supports global warming as a fact. My doubt is that we on earth are significantly contributing to that warming. Quite frankly, my mind is not made up and I'm still looking for the "smoking gun" that tells me we are the culprits. Great post Charles.
C'mon, Jeff. CO2 is heavier than air. That's why it's down here, and not up there. All the plants love it, and so I'm a big fan. You'll have to work harder to prove your theory, if you think you can.
Global warming is not proven by some incidental correlation with the modern generation of so-called greenhouse gasses. Do I need to say the words? Correlation is not causation. How do you explain the correlational melting of the ice caps on Mars? Little Green SUV's? That's just snarky, and I'm sorry.
Ok, I'm not a climate scientist. But I am old enough to remember the big Global Cooling Scare of the 1970's. Do we really think we are all so much smarter now? In my investigation I have found that the effects of CO2 holding in atmospheric heat are a log. Once you get near the top, the warming effects are barely perceptible even if you double the atmospheric gas. It flattens out due to physical or chemical response in the system and is actually counteracted then. The anthropogenic global warming elite seem to believe their science story is infallible. They probably also believe we can finally make Marxism work. Ok, that's another cheap shot. But that is the nature of colleagial debate at this level, right?
Let us not totally succumb to the conceits of our chauvinism. And I mean that in the nicest possible way.
Thank you. A very well written and thoughtful response. I am totally with your line of thought. To be sure there are fanatics on both sides of almost any issue and climate change is no different. As usual, the real truth, will lie somewhere in between. I am of the opinion, that folks who believe the data and theories are incontrovertible are fooling themselves. Anyone who thinks for a minute that they have complete understanding of a highly complex system with many thousands of degrees of freedom is daft. As engineers we have trouble getting a handle on a system with four or five degrees of freedom.
Is the climate changing? Yes, by all appearances it is. As an avid downhill skier, I lament the lack of snowfall in the Northeast (in general). How much of that is due to human involvement is another question all together. Unfortunately, the climate change studies was changed from an academic pursuit to a political one in large part by Al Gore and his army of people determined to save the world no matter what it costs.
The cynic in me also tends to believe that the most fervent supporters, are also in positions to have the most to gain from a professional and/or financial point of view.
I have yet to see any "scientist" show their results of Step #4 of the Scientific Method as applied to "global warming". And I'm fairly certain no one will ever be able to. Therefore it will always be an open ended theory that only long term history can give any creedence to. And considering the last 16 years have shown a net "flat line" on global temperatures, with some major drops in global averages during that period, I'm definitely skeptical. Whatever happened to the "global cooling" scholars of the 1970's?
The basis of the belief in global warming or global climate change is a set of computer models predicting certain changes due to an increase in greenhouse gases, principally CO2 and CH4, but also including H2O. The validity of the belief rests in part upon the accuracy of the models. Recently James Hansen, a NASA scientist and advocate of global climate change stated the average temperature of the earth has been essentially unchanged for the last 10 years. This does not agree with the computer models and their predictions. If the trend continues, the error between the prediction and the observed data will exceed the tolerance limits of the models. This does not necessarily mean the global climate change theories are wrong or the skeptic are correct. However, it does mean that the global climate change advocates do not understand the reality of our climate as well as they claim to and the science is not settled.
If you are a scientist and are presented with data that does not match your theory, you can refine the theory or show how the data is not applicable or show how the data is wrong. What you can NOT do and still claim to be a scientist is to resort to ad hominem attacks on your critics. That is not the act of a scientist but of a fanatic.
First and formost, my main concern is who really support the idea of global warming and how the plan to deal with it. First, many of the most vocal supporters of "climate change" are the green and pink hair, body pierced "OWS" crowd (The "lady gaga" types). The individuals that were critical of the editorial probably never seen, much less solved a differential equation (ok, I havn't solved one since the 80's, but at least I once could). Most of the supporters of "climate change" have an agenda. Heck, it has recently come to light that Al Gore's net worth matches Mitt Rommneys. Folow the money and power and you will see some other their motivations for the Green Economy. The oil companies may be "greedy", but the other side is just as every bit dishonest and greedy. My concern is how they want to "solve" the problem. By transfering all economic control to the government, who with its infinite wisdom, will then dole out resources to each of us "according to our needs" (and our party affiliation).
So, you still have nothing to refute global warming science I see . Instead you post absolute nonsense.
If you are a physicist, and that is becoming a rather large if, then you know that you are required to provide evidence for this "theory", not simply state it. Those that performed the research supporting anthropogenic global warming have done that. Their data aligns very well with the theory that we have caused this climate change event through our use of fossil fuels.
Your problem is that you can't refute their science. It's very sad that you continue this nonsense rather than acting like a physicist.
My theory is that there is a race of green people who live in the core of the Earth and from the time when the surfrace humans had the technology to detect them (early siesmographs for instance) and the methods they use to live in such a harsh environemtn, they have employed advanced shielding techniques to remain mostly undetected. However, there is a telltale sign of their presence and that is the heat produced by the shielding. There is a warming trend that began at the time the shielding became necessary. The correlation is nearly optimal and far better than the green house gas correlations.
According to to you, if you disagree it is now your job to prove that my theory is not correct. You can not simply point out flaws in my methods or errors in my measurements and demand more details. You must prove the green people do not exists or at the least, do not produce heat with shielding. Please give references to your research and detailed refutations.
(Note: You will fail. This is the grue-bleen paradox of the phiolosophy of science. And the reason it is not my job to prove alarminsts are wrong. This is also why the true believers are a serious PITA).
So, you claim to be a physicist and haven't provided any valid refutations to the the theory that humans via the burning of previously sequestered fossil fuels have added energy to the earth's system, due to the release of greenhouse gases that were not part of the existing carbon cycle, and so are the primary cause of this observed increase in temperature. Is this how you did physics?
That you say that you're a skeptic, it's your obligation to put your refutations in writing, to allow others to objectively evaluate your claims and thus judge previous claims and findings. It's that simple.
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