Captain Hybrid

Global Warming: Are the Skeptics Right?

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Alexander Wolfe
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Off on a tangent
Alexander Wolfe   2/6/2012 2:28:50 PM
What interests me here amid the robust discussion is, what makes a scientific discussion become overwhelmed by politics. Or, more specficially, which kinds of scientific issues are likely to become politicized. So, for example, irradiation of food became politicized briefly, but then that died off. (Likely because the area itself didn't have "legs.") I'm trying to think of other examples, but can't. Probably the closest is the population explosion debate circa 1970, although as I recall, that one was more poltical than scientific. This one (global warming) has both lots of science and lots of non-scientists. (The two groups seem to be having separate debates.)  Anyway, there's a very interesting social dynamic in that, at this point, it's somewhat pointless to engage because no discussion changes anyone's viewpoint. (That's why the psychological dynamic is of such interest to me.)

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Re: volcano emissions
HEC   2/6/2012 2:28:18 PM
seems like that site is linked to the propaganda machine supporting climate change.

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CO2 discussion
jeffbiss   2/6/2012 2:05:32 PM

Read The Long Thaw and take his online course, Open Climate Science 101.

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Re: How about a timeout here?
Watashi   2/6/2012 1:59:06 PM
It appears by your assertion that UK engineers suffer from "group think".  It is not that surprising that US engineers are independant and don't bow to "royalty" be it political or 'scientific'.

I am just as capable (probably more) than the "climate scientists" on either side.  So the 'scientists' should just show their data and methodolgies and let us decide who is lying on our own.  Pretty simple solution huh?

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volcano emissions
jeffbiss   2/6/2012 1:57:12 PM
Watashi and Stuart21,


The climate models were evaluated at the euption of Mt. Pinatubo.

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State Diagram Please
smallpond   2/6/2012 1:56:46 PM
Ok, I'm an Engineer, and this shouldn't be rocket science.  Since atmospheric CO2 is supposed to be the bad guy -- show me a documented state diagram for atmospheric CO2 flow.  Include a diagram that lists all CO2 sources by percentage, as well as all of the CO2 consumers by percentage, along with yearly overall flow rate between the two processes.  This would be worth more than a thousand words...

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jeffbiss   2/6/2012 1:47:36 PM
Jon titus,

You allege that science has gotten it wrong, so prove it. I doubt that science got it wrong with regards to contrails as there might have been conclusions drawn that warned of a "threat" but was debated and the conclusions evolved. For example, in World War II Bombing Raids Offer New Insight Into the Effects of Aviation On Climate, the study's authors note that "...but quantifiable data on the impact of AIC remains rare."

As for ozone depleting chemicals, in Significant Ozone Hole Remains Over Antarctica it is noted that "Levels of most ozone-depleting chemicals are slowly declining due to international action, but many have long lifetimes, remaining in the atmosphere for decades." You claim to have a Ph.D in chemistry, so you should have known that.

As for the irrelevant stats and "heat island" situated sensors, Richard Muller states in The Case Against Global-Warming Skepticism: There were good reasons for doubt, until now.that "Remarkably, the poorly ranked stations showed no greater temperature increases than the better ones. The mostly likely explanation is that while low-quality stations may give incorrect absolute temperatures, they still accurately track temperature changes." So, there is no bias in sensors positioned in urban areas (heat islands.

So, where're your citations? Your post is totally devoid of citations and illustrates the problem with science today. If you're really a PhD, then I'm surprised. I'm interested to see how you run your blog.

sensor pro
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Re: Solar activty
sensor pro   2/6/2012 1:26:24 PM
Earth climate will not respond overnight to increased or decreased sun activity. The fact that from 2008-2010 the sun spot activity was very slow states just that. The sun was uniform more or less and provided consistant energy levels, which resulted in a more constant Earth heating.

It is projected that the increased sun spots and flairs will create spikes in the weather patterns. Possibly heating, possibly some cooling.

The main point is what is the relative influence of Sun to the man made.

The believers will claim that we are killing the Earth. Skeptics will point out to some more possibilities. Sun is one of them.

I'm sure that you would agree that Sun does contibute to our weather, unless we live in an imaginary world of physics 101 ( no friction, not losses, ect....).

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Re: climate change happens, get over it!
Watashi   2/6/2012 1:07:58 PM

Stuart21 - What is your Mauna Kea data that shows an increase in CO2 from "the normal man made" sources recording?  ...the increased CO2 from Hilo, HI?


The point being is that all that is measured is the CO2 level, not where the CO2 originated from.  A single local measurement tells nothing but a local level at a particular time.  Perhaps you take a more sophisticated approach to the complex fluid dynamics problem that is our atmosphere.  Don't feel bad if it is overwhelming, no one has accurately modeled it yet.

BTW - I was in Subic Bay the day Pinatubo blew all those years ago.  The initial eruption 30miles distant looked like a nuclear explosion.  A Typhoon blew the debris over us the next day.  It was pitch black at noon, except when lightening lit up the sky.  It was raining rock (pumice), earthquakes, looked like hell on earth.  Our ship manned fire hoses topside 24hrs during the event to prevent capsizing from the added weight.  Witnessing such an event puts into perspective just how little and insignificant we humans are.  But as a young sailor I found the whole Volphoonaquake a pretty awesome experience - especially because the local bars, the couple that were still standing or able to move outside, used dry ice to cool the beer (electrical grid was toast).  Nothing makes a San Miguel or Red Horse more palatable than slamming it ice cold!

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Solar activty
jeffbiss   2/6/2012 1:06:36 PM
Sensor Pro,

You can search for information that shows solar activity and weather. We've just come out of a solar minimum while at the same time exiting some of the warmest weather recorded.

The science isn't politicized. People with agendas have politicized it. The climate research stands or falls on the data collected and the research performed and published in peer reviewed journals. Deniers, on the other hand, plead their case to the ignorant public to further their agenda.

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