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Tesla Sticks to Its Vision as Gigafactory Grows

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William K.
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Platinum
Re: Anticipating a really huge market, probably.
William K.   8/20/2016 12:10:14 PM
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J.D. is right, although a whole lot of the wall street crowd is totally opposed to spending for the future. My point was that Tesla is not taking a huge risk, just a medium risk. Planning to be the future leader in lithium battery production is fine, especially if there remains enough of it to use for all of those batteries. This is also assuming that some future technology does not completely change the game. But perhaps the factory will be flexible enough to make batteries with a different technology. I hope so.

Jerry dycus
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Gold
Re: Anticipating a really huge market, probably.
Jerry dycus   8/20/2016 9:46:54 AM
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I think it is a very good investment as it makes them an about 25%lower cost batteries advantage over LG, the next lowest cost in quality cells. As for market, I could easily sell 10Mwhr/month myself if I can get near OEM prices now. As for building with other investor's money, isn't that the idea of a corporation, capitalism? Remember the whole transport and power industries need to be replaced in just 20 yrs as oil will be running out, NG, coal too expensive and home, building power a fraction of FF utility power, isn't it smart to be the low cost leader in both? Once the GF is going well in 2 yrs Tesla's cost for cells is under $100/kwhr already baked in. And another drop to 8 lbs and $60/kwhr in 10 yrs

William K.
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Platinum
Anticipating a really huge market, probably.
William K.   8/20/2016 12:51:41 AM
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The huge factory, being built with a lot of other folks money, must certainly be a clue that they are planning on selling huge amounts of those battery systems for something, possibly as replacement battery pack components for other brands? Who knows what they think.

And I wonder if this plant will really be bigger than that huge Nissan plant near Smyrna, Tennessee, which is quite huge.

William K.
User Rank
Platinum
Re: EV market situation
William K.   8/20/2016 12:47:04 AM
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The unfortunate reality is that YJ is right. When that artificial market assistance is gone and all of the vehicles have to make it on their market appeal, for real, we may see a shakeup in what sells. The one huge problem with EVs is that the battery is going to have to be replaced. Not that it might need to be serviced, but that it will have to be rplaced, and that will be a very large chunk of money, because there will be no competition as to who will do the work or who will sell the replacement battery. So would you choose a car that is going to cost you about $7500 a few years down the road? Not me! And that price does not include any repairs to the rest of the vehicle, which may, or not, be needed. 

It won't have much effect on those folks who buy a new car every year, but for those of us who keep cars quite a few years it will be the show-stopper, a serious deal-breaker.

 

Jerry dycus
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Gold
Re: EV market situation
Jerry dycus   8/19/2016 10:53:22 AM
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Sorry Charlie but just not true. EVs mostly use efficient or clean energy and rarely coal. Most EVs are charged by nukes, wind and hydro overnight as coal costs have risen and RE +NG have dropped. Coal is down under 30% of US generation most run during peak demand with coal shipments down 25% so far this yr so likely even less. Thats cute you believe EIA projections. No one else does as their history is worse than bad. It's FFs that cost the government a fortune, $600b/yr in pollution, healthcare and military costs not even including homeland security, terrorism costs from the corporate welfare of the oil wars. No, clean power is cheap comparatively to FF including all cost, an outright bargain. Because I do clean energy for decades now, long before it was cool I just installed my new system in my modest home just built only costs me $1500 for parts will supply all the power I need for 20 yrs. sunelec for parts, local electrician to permit, install only cost $2k/kw or less the bigger the system on grid gets about $.06/kwhr retail. Please tell me a utility that can compete with that?

Jerry dycus
User Rank
Gold
Re: EV market situation
Jerry dycus   8/19/2016 10:31:37 AM
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George, on the contary it does because that is not the only benefit of batteries. They allow a much smaller system and if designed right doesn't need much battery as only 25% or so of the power goes through them so costs 25% as much. Next cycle life is likely much longer based on EV experience and not using the whole capacity much. Batteries also cut generator time, fuel costs which are quite high comparatively. A fast charging DC set up is the best way charging the batteries if not enough solar. One only needs about 50% of the peak daily demand or about 2 or 3kwhr per kw of solar. Also they work at retail prices so even adding $.05/kwhr is still under $.11/kwhr when the batteries are used. And in 10 yrs lithium will be under $120/kwhr retail, $60/kwhr OEM making it a no brainer. But as most is used directly the cost is minimal.

CharleyS468
User Rank
Iron
Re: EV market situation
CharleyS468   8/18/2016 1:58:37 PM
Electric cars are NOT pollution free! Actually they are coal-powered cars.
Please see:
https://www.prageru.com/courses/environmental-science/are-electric-cars-really-green
The Electric Car
* cuts almost no CO2 over its whole life
* costs taxpayers a fortune
* generates more air pollution than a traditional gasoline cars

Today only 14% of energy production is "renewable" - The Energy Information Administration says that will rise to 17% by 2040 and at that time fossil fuels will still produce 64% of all energy usage in the USA.

See:
https://www.prageru.com/courses/environmental-science/can-we-rely-wind-and-solar-energy

 

 

GeorgeReeves
User Rank
Silver
Re: EV market situation
GeorgeReeves   8/18/2016 1:29:27 PM
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If batteries cost $200 oer kW installed and last 4000 cycles then it costs 5 cents to shosh a kWh through a battery ignoring other depreciation, maintenance, efficiency, and capita costs.  The total cost to store and retrieve a kWh quickly exceeds the difference between off peak and on peak rates.  The economics do not support using batteries to store off peak and use on peak. 

whistler20
User Rank
Gold
Re: EV market situation
whistler20   8/18/2016 12:57:46 PM
Please stop throwing letters around assuming every one knows what they mean.  Define it the first time!  It tool me a couple of mSec to figure out FF (Fossil Fuel).  

Jerry dycus
User Rank
Gold
Re: EV market situation
Jerry dycus   8/18/2016 10:43:28 AM
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It'll happen because both EVs and clean power now or shortly will cost less . And a tiny fraction to run. As few want to pay more for polluting fuel, power, especially business, it is baked in already.

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